The Race To Define Ryan

[Lieutenant Governor Clinton1996]

According to polling, 54 percent of Americans have no view of Paul Ryan. The Race To Define Him has begun. Who will win? Can Rove and Romney succeed? Does Chicago have the cash for another ad campaign?

[NHI]

Romney will win.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I think it'll be a draw. If I was Romney, I would've released a slew of web ads at 10:00AM this morning tauting the Ryan pick. Not one has been released yet. It seems like the Obama campaign was more prepared for this event than the Romney campaign was.

[cope1989]

Romney will win.

Ok then, I guess that explanation works for me. Especially since Romney has so easily defined himself in this election so far.

[cope1989]

I think it'll be a draw. If I was Romney, I would've released a slew of web ads at 10:00AM this morning tauting the Ryan pick. Not one has been released yet. It seems like the Obama campaign was more prepared for this event than the Romney campaign was.

so....nothing has changed

[RogueBeaver]

IMO it has to be done before Labor Day when the D $$$ advantage disappears. I expect Boston to try and continue this positive vibe while also going full soft-bio (which Romney did today in Norfolk) to humanize Ryan. Chicago to solely focus on P2P.

If Chicago succeeds at casting Ryan as a heartless accountant then that gives them an immediate lead-in to Mediscare and immediately throws RR on defense. If Boston casts him in a favourable light- small-town, personable Midwestern wonk- then it's a draw.

Hagrid: There is a Ryan ad out.

[Lieutenant Governor Clinton1996]

I think it'll be a draw. If I was Romney, I would've released a slew of web ads at 10:00AM this morning tauting the Ryan pick. Not one has been released yet. It seems like the Obama campaign was more prepared for this event than the Romney campaign was.

so....nothing has changed

But does Obama's Campaign have the cash to do an all out assault on Ryan like they did to Romney? We still have 3 months to go til election day, and I'm afraid that during October Axelrod will announce that the campaign is broke. Then Romney, Rove, and The Kochs will spend the 31 days in October burying Obama in attack ads. 3 months ago this would have been on the fringe of crazy thoughts. Now, it seems like a possibility.

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

Fox News profile claims that Ryan is a Rage Against the Machine fan who catches catfish with his bare hands.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Hagrid: There is a Ryan ad out.

Would you mind linking me? I didn't see anything on Romney's webpage.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Fox News profile claims that Ryan is a Rage Against the Machine fan who catches catfish with his bare hands.

WTF?!?!??!?!?!?!?

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So we have a guy that probably doesn't listen to music created or inspired by works from post 1965 and another who listens to 1990's stuff. Ah generation gaps.

My favorite music falls right in between the two, almost dead center, in fact with outliers on either side.

[Nagas]

I think it'll be a draw. If I was Romney, I would've released a slew of web ads at 10:00AM this morning tauting the Ryan pick. Not one has been released yet. It seems like the Obama campaign was more prepared for this event than the Romney campaign was.

I agree, and Obama already has ads out and has been blasting the pick on social media. They probably created material for the most likely picks (Portman, Ryan, Thune, Pawlenty, etc.). It also was a great help to his campaign that he had about a 12-hour window to prepare the defining attacks because the Romney campaign cannot run a tight ship (or a misdirection campaign) very well.

Ryan is a gamble that could go either way, but Obama's campaign knows very well that they want to create a more powerful hand before they play.

[GLPman]

It's too early to tell, especially because this pick has completely energized the race so much. The Romney campaign should be giving Ryan every opportunity possible to go on TV, radio, etc. so that people can see what he represents. The Obama campaign certainly won't waste any time in trying to portray Ryan in a negative light, so it's in the Romney campaign's best interest to define Ryan immediately. Now, as for who will win in the end, we're far too early on in the game for that to be decided - the pick was just announced today!

[Governor NVGonzalez]

After Romney already lost the race to define his own self I doubt he will do much better with this.

[Jbrase]

Fox News profile claims that Ryan is a Rage Against the Machine fan who catches catfish with his bare hands.

This alone almost makes me want to vote for him

[Lief]

The Obama campaign has more than enough money to do whatever they want to do, don't worry.

[Lieutenant Governor Clinton1996]

The Obama campaign has more than enough money to do whatever they want to do, don't worry.

This is the reason we'll be outspent. The prevailing wisdom among the base is that its impossible to lose and that Chicago will have more than enough money. People need to get scared of RR and donate.

[Lief]

It's definitely possible to lose and people should continue to donate as much as they can, but Obama is raising like $75 million a month. They're not going to run out of money if they keep this pace up.

[kingthlayer]

Plus the debates will be free.

[cavalcade]

Well, here's where things start.

CNN's poll from last week (the one with Obama +7) had Ryan at 29-20 favorable/unfavorable among registered voters, with his highest ratings among seniors. 

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/08/09/rel7b3.pdf

Rasmussen had him at 39-25 a month ago among likely voters, and if Hotair isn't lying about the crosstabs he had pretty good ratings among seniors there too.

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/08/11/rasmussen-ryan-favorability-3925/

[cope1989]

The Obama campaign has more than enough money to do whatever they want to do, don't worry.

This is the reason we'll be outspent. The prevailing wisdom among the base is that its impossible to lose and that Chicago will have more than enough money. People need to get scared of RR and donate.

Trust me, the Obama campaign is doing a great job scaring people. Every day I get some email from Barack or Joe sending me a friendly reminder that they're being outraised by Romney and that the sky will rain lava if they don't close the gap. I don't know if this is just the typical scare and rally the base tactic or if they really are that desperate for cash.

Either way, Romney can outspend Obama, but if Obama can keep fundraising totals close then he has more than enough ammo to take down Romney/Ryan.

[ajb]

In terms of defining Ryan, it's a help to the Obama campaign that the message they want to get out there is consonant with everything else they've been talking about. I think in a way they were initially more taken aback by Palin four years ago, because, while the attacks against here were pretty obvious, they represented a bigger pivot from what the campaign had been talking about up till then.
My hunch is that as the country gets to know him better, Ryan will be a very polarizing figure, with few new voters being drawn to Romney because of him, though parts of the base may well be thrilled.

[pepper11]

The MSM coverage of Ryan has been unbelievable positive. The press knows him well, and it seems like they genuinely like him. Every mainstream outlet /website (ABC, YAHOO, NBC, CBS, FOX) praised him for being bold. Almost all the mainstream  internet press coverage has been positive.  Last cycle at this time they were talking about Troopergate, Alaska Independant Party, and a Bridge to Nowhere. This year they are talking about how he is elevating the discorse of this campaign. The Dem's still seem giddy to run against Ryan, but I don't think he is going to be as easy a target as they may have thought.

[Sibboleth]

People need to get scared of RR and donate.

Pretty sure that soliciting goes against the ToS, but whatever.

[cope1989]

The MSM coverage of Ryan has been unbelievable positive. The press knows him well, and it seems like they genuinely like him. Every mainstream outlet /website (ABC, YAHOO, NBC, CBS, FOX) praised him for being bold. Almost all the mainstream  internet press coverage has been positive.  Last cycle at this time they were talking about Troopergate, Alaska Independant Party, and a Bridge to Nowhere. This year they are talking about how he is elevating the discorse of this campaign. The Dem's still seem giddy to run against Ryan, but I don't think he is going to be as easy a target as they may have thought.

I recall differently. It seemed like the initial press coverage on Palin was positive too. They talked a lot about her incredibly high approval ratings in Alaska and her ability to take on special interests on both sides of the aisle. The coverage didn't start to turn negative until the big interviews and gaffes on the campaign trail. I also think she began to personify the unsettling Obama hatred on the Republican side- she kind of fed into it when she said Obama was palling around with terrorists- and she took hits for that as well.

VP picks usually get a few days of a press honeymoon, if only because the public doesn't know too much about them initially. But Ryan can't be demonized for his incompetence, like Palin. Instead it will be the opposite, that should Romney and Ryan come into the white house, it will make it that much easier for Ryan to implement his agenda. That's what Obama needs to harp on.