Venezuelan Presidential Election 2012

[Bacon King]

I think what this thread really needs, is a few more lovable Chavez photos. (Hey, it's better than diverging into an argument on Pinochet!)

Does "lovable" mean "goofy" in your idiolect?

I do find goofy photos to be adorable, indeed, especially when it's someone who normally projects a personality you wouldn't expect it from (see also, for example, all those "Newt Gingrich playing with animals" pictures; they were hilarious and awesome).

PS, I love the word "idiolect" and if you don't mind I'd like to appropriate it and try to work it into everyday conversation.

[ag]

I think what this thread really needs, is a few more lovable Chavez photos. (Hey, it's better than diverging into an argument on Pinochet!)

Does "lovable" mean "goofy" in your idiolect?

You're terribly out of touch, ag - normal humans find warm, 'down to earth' photos of a great man interacting with 'real people', wearing normal clothes and with a smile on his face to be loveable.  What do you find lovable?  A grim white guy standing stiffly in a suit?

I am afraid you see smthg in those pictures I don't

There is nothing warm, the man is not great, he is not smiling (in a couple of cases grimacing a bit, dead serious, if not outright frowning in others), his clothing is not normal - in the sense that few people would ever be caught dead wearing them. And, of course, in all but one of these photos there are no other people properly visible - and no indication he is interacting with anyone, other than the photographer.

[opebo]

I am afraid you see smthg in those pictures I don't

There is nothing warm, the man is not great, he is not smiling (in a couple of cases grimacing a bit, dead serious, if not outright frowning in others), his clothing is not normal - in the sense that few people would ever be caught dead wearing them. And, of course, in all but one of these photos there are no other people properly visible - and no indication he is interacting with anyone, other than the photographer.

Actually I have to admit I didn't look at the photos - I suppose the real test of his lovability is that a majority of Venezuelans do in fact love him, and will re-elect him.  So, he can look as goofy as he likes - the leftist policies are what makes him loved.

[Roma Caput Mundi]

Venezuela has one industry: oil. Oil prices have skyrocketed. ANY Venezuelan government would have a huge GDP increase. Then, of course, Venezuelan production has, reportedly, actually fallen despite much higher prices - because of mismanagenemt and incompetence.

Any numbers coming out of Venezuela right now are, unfortunately, not too reliable. Not because of any malice, actually - mostly because they've rid the bureaucracy of those who could compute them.

Pretty much.
Just taking numbers into account without looking into the economy and its fundamentals, and without looking at other things over which the government can actually make a difference (like criminality rates) can only lead to a partial analysis.

[RogueBeaver]

Capriles is walking the fine ideological line pretty well, I think.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Capriles is walking the fine ideological line pretty well, I think.

yes, except for

http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/7238

Capriles plans to privatize, allow for foreign takeover of finance (equal to loss of national sovereignty - see Greece) allow profits to be expatriated, etc.

[Marcus Aurelius]

As this thread seems to be the revelating test of left-wing consistency and sanity to our fellow right-wing forumers, I will tell you this election is the first Chavez one in which I actually have a really hard time to know who to support. It's the first one I'm considering a Chavez defeat with something else than contempt and appall. So I guess I'm half sane and half insane...

[Insula Dei]

As this thread seems to be the revelating test of left-wing consistency and sanity to our fellow right-wing forumers, I will tell you this election is the first Chavez one in which I actually have a really hard time to know who to support. It's the first one I'm considering a Chavez defeat with something else than contempt and appall. So I guess I'm half sane and half insane...

Never stop believing, bro.

[後援会]

The New Republic Reports

But the bigger problem for Chávez is that, while he remains personally well liked by most Venezuelans and fanatically adored by a not inconsiderable minority, even his most die-hard supporters realize his government stinks.

The government Chávez has built is a monumental fiasco. Corrupt, bureaucratic, opaque and wedded to unworkable ideological certainties, the chavista state is top-heavy with cronies and arbitrageurs who talk about the beauty of socialism all morning and siphon off the profits of crooked deals into off-shore bank accounts all afternoon. Today, it amounts to a sprawling bureaucracy that simply doesn’t have the resources to make good on the ideological checks the president spends his days writing.

The result is a paradox: to many Venezuelans, the emotional bond with the first leader that ever spoke directly to the barrio remains strong. But it coexists with a no-longer-concealed realization that he’s not particularly good at his job.

[shua]

The New Republic Reports

what else would you expect from capitalist homosexual Zionists?   /Chavez

[© Tweed the Younger]

The New Republic Reports

what else would you expect from capitalist homosexual Zionists?   /Chavez

of course the Western-capitalist media is salivating at the (remote) possibility of a Chavez defeat, and, failing that, the possibility of his death by cancer.  meanwhile the Venezuelan opposition is making its plans to reject the results of Sunday's election, something the Western-capitalist media will surely report ad nauseam in the aftermath.

the exaggeration of the closeness of the race sets the stage well for challenging the legitimacy of the results when they go the wrong way.

[RogueBeaver]

Chavez wins unless he doesn't, so I'll guess a single-digit victory for now.

[Keystone Phil]

Chavez will be re-elected.

[後援会]

Chavez will be re-elected.

Almost certainly. Then he'll linger on for a few years until he dies from cancer. And then sh**t will hit the fan as Venezuela completes its transition to a failed narcostate.

You'd think a nation with one of the world's largest oil reserves could at least cling onto being a slightly preferable failed petrostate, but that sounds overly optimistic.

[RogueBeaver]

Places to watch.

http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/10/05/in_venezuela_everythings_in_play

[Tender Branson]

How fair and transparent are elections these days in Venezuela ?

Are they rigged, are votes bought or voters intimidated ? Chavez supporters bussed to the polling places etc. ?

Who knows more ?

[Keystone Phil]

It isn't corrupt to give your supporters a ride to the polls. I guess I should qualify that by stating that it isn't corrupt as long as said supporters are eligible and registered voters.

[Comandante Kitteh]

It isn't corrupt to give your supporters a ride to the polls. I guess I should qualify that by stating that it isn't corrupt as long as said supporters are eligible and registered voters.

I've volunteered for a number of US campaigns, and all of the larger ones (i.e. anything more important than state senator) had programs to give people rides to the polls. I actually think it's a good thing. I know one time an 82 year old lady who wouldn't have voted otherwise was able to vote because someone from the campaign drove her to the polls.

[shua]

How fair and transparent are elections these days in Venezuela ?

Are they rigged, are votes bought or voters intimidated ? Chavez supporters bussed to the polling places etc. ?

Who knows more ?

There are worries among anti-Chavez voters about the fingerprint identification system based on prior repercussions.

"If the thumbprint makes the machine work, how do you know it doesn't end up being recorded who you voted for?" asked Jacqueline Rivas, a 46-year-old housewife.

Experts say there is no evidence the system has ever been used to reveal voters' preferences, and most opposition leaders, who stand to suffer if supporters don't vote, have been eager to assure that the system is safe.

But worries have persisted. Many government opponents say they see a pro-Chavez bias in the National Electoral Council and remember a previous scandal in which the names of Venezuelans who petitioned to recall Chavez in 2004 were publicly leaked. Hundreds of people alleged they were fired or suffered discrimination after their names turned up on the "Tascon List," named after a pro-Chavez lawmaker who released it.

Chavez later urged supporters to "bury the list" and put it behind them.

Worries about the government obtaining the names of anti-Chavez voters led the opposition to destroy many lists of voters after its February primary to choose a presidential candidate, flouting a Supreme Court ruling that the lists should be turned over to the electoral council.

"A government that has fired people for thinking different, for voting different, that drew up the Tascon List and that puts out thumbprint machines, that puts in people's minds ... makes them fear the thumbprint," said Ramon Muchacho, an opposition politician.

Opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles and his campaign aides have sought to assuage fears, saying that they are sure voters' choices will remain secret and that no one should cave to any government attempts at intimidation.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/thumbprint-readers-stir-fears-venezuela-vote-131434477.html

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Chavez will be re-elected.

Let's hope your prediction is as good as the French presidential one last spring.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

When to expect the results?

[Tender Branson]

When to expect the results?

Polls close at 6pm local time, so results can be expected tomorrow morning here.

Or in CA, where you are right now, late in the evening today.

[Tender Branson]

Big turnout it seems (look at the pictures):

http://www.2001.com.ve/elecciones_2012/noticia.asp?registro=216495&titulo=Venezolanos-comenzaron-a-votar

[Tender Branson]

This is what final campaign events look like in Venezuela:

[bore]

Big turnout it seems (look at the pictures):

http://www.2001.com.ve/elecciones_2012/noticia.asp?registro=216495&titulo=Venezolanos-comenzaron-a-votar

Who does that help?