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Author Topic: Venezuelan Presidential Election 2012  (Read 7047 times)
Sibboleth
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« Reply #125 on: October 08, 2012, 07:15:01 am »
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Zulia is interesting.
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« Reply #126 on: October 08, 2012, 08:22:34 am »

Zulia is shocking, Chavez lost that state in 2000 and 2006, and he wins it fairly easily this year. What's up there?
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« Reply #127 on: October 08, 2012, 09:17:53 am »
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Chavez's 2000 and 2006 challengers were from Zulia. Capriles isn't.
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« Reply #128 on: October 08, 2012, 09:21:06 am »
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Zulia is shocking, Chavez lost that state in 2000 and 2006, and he wins it fairly easily this year. What's up there?

What Phil said and maybe the opposition Governor there isn't that popular (but I don't know) or the oil boom there is helping Chavez because he's chanelled a lot of this money into rural areas to fight poverty and boost education there.
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« Reply #129 on: October 08, 2012, 01:45:21 pm »
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I'm not a fan of the man, but if he was going to do away with the democratic process (or turn it into a complete sham) then he'd have done so years ago.
If there is any one politician in the world of whom that's true, it's Chavez.
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« Reply #130 on: October 08, 2012, 01:50:36 pm »
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I don't like Chavez, but do vote rigging dictators lose referenda by 1%? I've never seen evidence of what some seem to be claiming.
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« Reply #131 on: October 08, 2012, 02:35:22 pm »
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the main reason people want to deduce Chavez is a despot is because he is an egomaniac with a flair for the dramatic -- as much as the red-blooded Americans may hate Morales, Kirchner, Correa, etc., they don't make any allegations.  (American rightists may well, but they're so far off the map there's no accounting for it.)
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« Reply #132 on: October 08, 2012, 02:41:07 pm »
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Wonderful news!

Yay!
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« Reply #133 on: October 08, 2012, 02:54:07 pm »

Chavez's 2000 and 2006 challengers were from Zulia. Capriles isn't.

There's that factor, but Zulia is/was an opposition stronghold at other levels: legislative (2010), referendums (2007 and 2009).
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« Reply #134 on: October 08, 2012, 03:01:26 pm »
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the main reason people want to deduce Chavez is a despot is because he is an egomaniac with a flair for the dramatic
Oh yes. And how.

It's not the only reason, though. Venezuela had long been, not just a fairly US-dependent but also a culturally fairly northerly-oriented country (I mean, they play baseball there. And their football team sucked so hard for so long that they used to play in the North American qualifiers because they couldn't compete with the big boys from the rest of South America.) Some of the same is also true of Colombia (which remains in US Clutches). There are also fairly sizable Venezuelan and Colombian immigrant communities in the US, and they're relatively White and legal.
But it's not just a US orientation, it's a Caribbean orientation as well (Capriles' family is from Curacao originally)... which the US also considers its own backyard, of course, but more to the point Cuba, too, is going to be a far more directly relevant issue in Venezuela than in Chile.

And then there's the oil, of course. And the way Chavez at times threw around oil money to buy influence, making him what you'd call a Stategic Adversary of the USA.

And then there's also the factor of Chavez starting the trend with Morales, Correa, Humala all coming later and inspired by Chavism.



Of course, there's absolutely nothing new in leftish populists coming to power on anti American rhetoric in Latin America. A lot of caudillos that were later perfectly tame internationally but not so much at home started out that way. Including one Fulgencio Baptista. It's the staying that way that assures Hugo his place in the history book... and I, for one, think we have mostly the bunglers in the Bush admin and the 2002 coup to thank for it. Credit where it belongs.
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« Reply #135 on: October 08, 2012, 03:02:02 pm »
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Chavez's 2000 and 2006 challengers were from Zulia. Capriles isn't.

There's that factor, but Zulia is/was an opposition stronghold at other levels: legislative (2010), referendums (2007 and 2009).
Remind me... are the low margins in the far south part of the historical pattern?
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« Reply #136 on: October 08, 2012, 03:15:45 pm »

Chavez's 2000 and 2006 challengers were from Zulia. Capriles isn't.

There's that factor, but Zulia is/was an opposition stronghold at other levels: legislative (2010), referendums (2007 and 2009).
Remind me... are the low margins in the far south part of the historical pattern?

If you mean the Chavista margins in Amazonas, no, that's actually another interesting thing which appeared in 2010. Amazonas used to be one of the strongest Chavista states, but the PSUV did poorly there in 2010 (the PPT won 41%) and it seems like Chavez did poorly there again this year.
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« Reply #137 on: October 08, 2012, 03:30:54 pm »
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Maps!

Right click for full size.
That's by municipality, right? Incredible. Here's Caracas by district.

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« Reply #138 on: October 08, 2012, 03:44:02 pm »
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Chavez's 2000 and 2006 challengers were from Zulia. Capriles isn't.

There's that factor, but Zulia is/was an opposition stronghold at other levels: legislative (2010), referendums (2007 and 2009).
Remind me... are the low margins in the far south part of the historical pattern?

If you mean the Chavista margins in Amazonas, no, that's actually another interesting thing which appeared in 2010. Amazonas used to be one of the strongest Chavista states, but the PSUV did poorly there in 2010 (the PPT won 41%) and it seems like Chavez did poorly there again this year.
I meant Amazonas and Bolivar. Thanks!
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« Reply #139 on: October 09, 2012, 03:07:28 am »
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For an interesting comparison with the above, here's a map of the municipalities that Capriles visited over the course of the campaign:

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« Reply #140 on: October 09, 2012, 04:23:48 am »
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Um, I'll freely and gladly take this back if I'm mistaken, but aren't you a Pinochet fan?

I'm not saying that particular bit of whataboutery excuses Chavez's human rights violations, mind - I thought it was self-evident that my post was somewhat tongue-in-cheek.

I don't love Pinochet, but I'm fully willing to acknowledge him the least bad of several evils in the time period when he took power, though by the time he stepped down, he no longer carried that honor.

"Least bad of several evils" is not something that describes Chavez. Obviously, Pinochet isn't a model for governance, but if we look on it from a consequentialist and counterfactual angle, we can say that for all his personal failings (which are too long to be described here), Pinochet's coup had better outcomes than the alternatives, making the world somewhat better than it otherwise would have been. Chavez has been bad for both Venezuela, the United States, and the world. If an analogy is necessary - one can prefer the Soviet Union defeat Nazi Germany without being a strong supporter of Stalinist Communism.

Also, this is probably the 8th time I've had to explained this stance. Is the forum's version of "I can see Russia from my house."?
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« Reply #141 on: October 09, 2012, 04:49:25 am »
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Not to interrupt Pinochet chat (Pinochat?) again, but here's swing and trend maps I made comparing 2006 and 2012:



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« Reply #142 on: October 09, 2012, 04:56:55 am »
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What the heck is up with that one part of Venezuela that decided to like Chavez more?
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« Reply #143 on: October 09, 2012, 05:29:00 am »
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What the heck is up with that one part of Venezuela that decided to like Chavez more?

Chavez's opponent in 2006 was Zulia's governor, so a homestate effect (which was no doubt intensified by Maracaibo's traditional rivalry with Caracas) from the last election that wasn't present in this one.   
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« Reply #144 on: October 09, 2012, 05:31:18 am »
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What the heck is up with that one part of Venezuela that decided to like Chavez more?

Chavez's opponent in 2006 was Zulia's governor, so a homestate effect (which was no doubt intensified by Maracaibo's traditional rivalry with Caracas) from the last election that wasn't present in this one.   

Makes a lot of sense.
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« Reply #145 on: October 09, 2012, 04:45:20 pm »
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What's the difference between swing and trend maps ?
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« Reply #146 on: October 09, 2012, 04:49:48 pm »
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What's the difference between swing and trend maps ?

Trend is swing relative to the national swing.
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« Reply #147 on: October 09, 2012, 04:54:20 pm »
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What's the difference between swing and trend maps ?

Trend is swing relative to the national swing.

Or more explicitly put: Swing compares how a region voted now to how it voted 6 years ago.

Trend compares the swing in a region to the national average swing. (If a region swung 5% away from Chavez, while the Nation as a whole swung 10% away from him, that'd mean the region would be trending towards Chavez)
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« Reply #148 on: October 12, 2012, 12:39:33 am »
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What's the difference between swing and trend maps ?

Trend is swing relative to the national swing.

Or more explicitly put: Swing compares how a region voted now to how it voted 6 years ago.

Trend compares the swing in a region to the national average swing. (If a region swung 5% away from Chavez, while the Nation as a whole swung 10% away from him, that'd mean the region would be trending towards Chavez)

With trend you have the silliness where Democrat gets 90% in DC in a close election. Next Democrat gets 95% in DC, and wins by 20 points nationwide. Oh noes, DC trended away from the Democrats.
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« Reply #149 on: October 12, 2012, 01:43:57 pm »
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Um, I'll freely and gladly take this back if I'm mistaken, but aren't you a Pinochet fan?

I'm not saying that particular bit of whataboutery excuses Chavez's human rights violations, mind - I thought it was self-evident that my post was somewhat tongue-in-cheek.

I don't love Pinochet, but I'm fully willing to acknowledge him the least bad of several evils in the time period when he took power, though by the time he stepped down, he no longer carried that honor.

"Least bad of several evils" is not something that describes Chavez. Obviously, Pinochet isn't a model for governance, but if we look on it from a consequentialist and counterfactual angle, we can say that for all his personal failings (which are too long to be described here), Pinochet's coup had better outcomes than the alternatives, making the world somewhat better than it otherwise would have been. Chavez has been bad for both Venezuela, the United States, and the world. If an analogy is necessary - one can prefer the Soviet Union defeat Nazi Germany without being a strong supporter of Stalinist Communism.

Also, this is probably the 8th time I've had to explained this stance. Is the forum's version of "I can see Russia from my house."?

Oh, no, please. Not this, again...
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