Why is Ohio a Swing State

[Rhodie]

I have often pondered this question. Is it because it sits at a crossroads, between the cultural conservatism of Indiana and the South, labor politics of West Virginia and Michigan, and the cultural liberalism of the north-east.

[realisticidealist]

It has three large population centers plus at least a half dozen more medium sized ones most of which have large minority populations. Throw in a few well-off socially liberal whites in Cleveland and a not-dead Democratic labor base in Youngstown and Toledo and along the Ohio River, and you have a state that manages to nearly cancel out its natural rural and suburban Republican leaning.

[TJ in Wisco]

You are both right to some degree. Ohio has a decent sized base for each party and a large number of swing voters.

Cleveland is the center of the Democratic Party's base in Ohio and it has a coalition of wealthy liberal whites and African-Americans on its east side and an industrial base of working-class ethnic whites, many of whom are Catholic, on the west side. There is an old saying in Cleveland that the Northeast ends and the Midwest begins at the Cuyahoga River (which runs through the center of the city) and there is some truth to it. Cuyahoga County east of the river voted ~81% for President Obama in '08 while the west voted ~57% for Obama. Northeast Ohio has close to 40% of the state's population and the Democratic candidate often comes from NE Ohio in statewide races.

Moving west along Lake Erie or southeast toward Youngstown, the Democratic Party generally dominates from towns build on an industrial base (automotive along the lake and steel mills toward Youngstown). Most of these towns are declining areas that have been experiencing population losses for decades and the Republicans' message on economic issues is rather unappealing. Unlike the east side of Cleveland, Republicans do get some votes in many of these areas, absent the very poor urban cores, either from the professional class who are disinterested in the Democrats economic policies or social conservatives. Wealthy suburbs in these areas tend to support Republicans, but there do not tend to be many people living in wealthy suburbs in these areas.

The other main area of Democratic support today is Columbus, which is the closest thing Ohio has to a young, hip, socially liberal city. The Columbus area used to be conservative but has changed in recent years as more young adults and African Americans move to it. Columbus is also the metropolitan area in Ohio that is growing the fastest. The outer Columbus suburbs remain quite Republican despite the overall trend of the metro area.

Southeast Ohio was traditionally a Democratic area from its coal heyday but has changed significantly in recent years, much like neighboring West Virginia. Democrats can still win here in downballot races but it is getting more and more difficult for the Dems to compete here in the national level.

Cincinnati and Dayton have some Democratic areas of their urban cores, but both have extremely Republican suburbs that more than cancel out the cores, making SW Ohio one of the most Republican parts of the state.

West-central Ohio is the most Republican part of the state and is mostly rural agricultural areas with scattered smaller cities. The demographics vary from town to town but most of the counties in this area are ~60-70% Republican on the national level.

The southern part of the state between Cincinnati and the Southeast is the most culturally southern part of the state but not heavily populated.

The inland north-central part of the state (around Mansfield, Ashland, and Wooster) is another Republican node. It has a large number of Amish and Mennonite settlers and a religious conservative feel.

Basically the end result is a state with roughly the same number of Republicans and Democrats with a large number of voters who can be convinced by either side. If Ohio differs from the national political spectrum any, it is that Ohio is slightly to the left fiscally and right socially of the nation as a whole.

[realisticidealist]

The other main area of Democratic support today is Columbus, which is the closest thing Ohio has to a young, hip, socially liberal city.

I thought that was Athens?

[TJ in Wisco]

The other main area of Democratic support today is Columbus, which is the closest thing Ohio has to a young, hip, socially liberal city.

I thought that was Athens?

Well yeah it would be, but Athens is too tiny to affect the state as a whole much.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

WV leans Republican in presidential elections and Democrat in state elections.  Michigan is a swing state.  As for Ohio, it's voted for the winner in the last 12 straight presidential elections.

[OC]

With the change in demographics, now NV,CO, and NH are competing now with OH and equals its electoral votes, and can be considered bellweathers as well. Ohio may or maynot be the bellweather in this election.