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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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|-+  General Politics
| |-+  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  Assessing the need for Black VRA districts in Florida
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Author Topic: Assessing the need for Black VRA districts in Florida  (Read 344 times)
Sbane
sbane
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« on: August 13, 2012, 02:21:03 pm »
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One district can easily be drawn that is likely to reflect Black voters preferences and that is in the north Miami area. But are the other two districts, the Jacksonville to Orlando district in the north and the Fort Lauderdale/Palm Beach district in the south, necessary. So if someone draws a truly fair map of Florida, would they need to draw those districts to be compliant? I know there aren't any clear cut answers here but I would like to know what you all think are the chances of a lawsuit if those districts aren't drawn and what the likely outcome would be.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2012, 02:40:12 pm »
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This was already addressed by the 11th circuit 10 years ago in Martinez v Bush.

http://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=2475542509712946718

136. The legislature's overriding goal with respect to congressional reapportionment 1301*1301 was to adopt a plan that would withstand legal challenges and would maximize the number of districts likely to perform for Republicans. The legislature had no purpose to discriminate against black or Hispanic candidates or voters. To the contrary, the legislature affirmatively intended not to discriminate against black or Hispanic candidates or voters. The legislature recognized that adopting districts that would not dilute black or Hispanic voting strength was fully consistent with— perhaps even essential to—the goal of adopting a plan that would withstand legal challenges.

137. The legislature's plan included three districts (still numbered 3, 17, and 23) intended to perform for black candidates of choice.

138. It is likely that CDs 3, 17, and 23 will in fact perform for black candidates of choice, and that black candidates of choice will be elected in these districts throughout the coming decade.

139. The legislature determined, correctly, that increases in the Hispanic population made it feasible to draw a third reasonably compact district that would perform for Hispanic candidates of choice. The legislature's plan included three districts (two still numbered 18 and 21 and a new district numbered 25) intended to perform for Hispanic candidates of choice.

140. It is likely that CDs 18, 21, and 25 will in fact perform for Hispanic candidates of choice, and that Hispanic candidates of choice will be elected in these districts throughout the coming decade.

141. Race was considered in the drawing of CDs 3, 17, and 23, and Hispanic status was considered in the drawing of CDs 18, 21, and 25, in an effort to enhance performance of the districts for black or Hispanic candidates of choice, to avoid dilution of the votes of black or Hispanic voters, and to comply with section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Traditional districting principles also were considered and respected in the drawing of these districts. No effort was made to afford blacks or Hispanics substantially greater than proportional representation or to afford them representation inconsistent with traditional districting principles. Neither race nor Hispanic status was the controlling or predominant factor in the drawing of such districts.

142. CDs 3, 17, 23, 18, 21, and 25 are reasonably compact.

143. CDs 3, 17, 23, 18, 21, and 25 in fact comply to a reasonable extent with traditional districting principles.

144. No greater number of reasonably compact performing minority districts reasonably could have been drawn.
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Sbane
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« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2012, 03:01:03 pm »
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Isn't this decision saying that the 3rd and 23rd were ok to draw in 2000 (when presumably the Black population was higher?). It doesn't say anything about not drawing these districts and in their place drawing compact districts that made a reasonable effort to not split the black vote. So a district wholly within Broward county which takes in all of the city of Fort Lauderdale and the black areas right next to it but doesn't go into Palm Beach county. The 3rd district seems completely ridiculous to me but it's the 23rd I am not sure about.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2012, 03:04:11 pm by Senator Sbane »Logged
krazen1211
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« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2012, 03:38:23 pm »
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Isn't this decision saying that the 3rd and 23rd were ok to draw in 2000 (when presumably the Black population was higher?). It doesn't say anything about not drawing these districts and in their place drawing compact districts that made a reasonable effort to not split the black vote. So a district wholly within Broward county which takes in all of the city of Fort Lauderdale and the black areas right next to it but doesn't go into Palm Beach county. The 3rd district seems completely ridiculous to me but it's the 23rd I am not sure about.

Census 2000 states that the black population of Florida was 14.6%.

http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/c2kprof00-fl.pdf

Census 2010 states that the black population of Florida was 16.0%.

http://2010.census.gov/news/releases/operations/cb11-cn95.html



The court merely addresses what is drawn and certainly does not speculate on what is not drawn. And the court has already stated that CD-3 and CD-23 are 'reasonably compact' even if Sbane disagrees.

For them to go from 3 districts out of 23 in 1992 to 1 or 2 districts out of 27 (or more next census) would surely yield complains using these lines as precedent. 20 years ago 2 black districts in South Florida was well beyond proportionality but that is not so today.

I personally suspect that the legislature could choose to drawn only 1 or 2 districts and get away with it as legislatures often have wide latitude in this regard. However, they would surely have to do so with resistance from Corinne Brown.
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