CO, VA, OH, FL - Purple Poll: Romney vaults into the lead in the big 3

[krazen1211]

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll_Aug15_Final.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PurplePoll+August+2012+-+from+Doug&utm_content=PurplePoll+August+2012+-+from+Doug+CID_456c49430ac432c4acf0576810883e59&utm_source=Email+marketing+software&utm_term=All+this+and+more+in+this+months+PurplePoll

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin:

Romney 47
Obama 46

CO:

Obama 49
Romney 46

VA:
Romney 48
Obama 45

OH:
Romney 46
Obama 44

FL:
Romney 48
Obama 47



Not too shabby.

[Lieutenant Governor Clinton1996]

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll_Aug15_Final.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PurplePoll+August+2012+-+from+Doug&utm_content=PurplePoll+August+2012+-+from+Doug+CID_456c49430ac432c4acf0576810883e59&utm_source=Email+marketing+software&utm_term=All+this+and+more+in+this+months+PurplePoll

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin:

Romney 47
Obama 46

CO:

Obama 49
Romney 46

VA:
Romney 48
Obama 45

OH:
Romney 46
Obama 44

FL:
Romney 48
Obama 47



Not too shabby.

I put a lot of doubt into the Ohio numbers. No one has give Romney a lead since May, and the last two polls have shown him either only tied, or behind by 3 or so.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

My goodness, where do they come up with this stuff?!

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

So Romney's position weakened in two states since their last poll (CO and FL) and improved in two (OH and VA). Meh.

[Gravis Marketing]

Adding July numbers for reference.

So what we have is Obama leaping ahead in Colorado, Romney leaping ahead in Virginia, Obama losing some support in Ohio that he discovers in Florida.

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin:

Romney 47 (45)
Obama 46 (47)

CO:

Obama 49 (45)
Romney 46 (44)

VA:
Romney 48 (44)
Obama 45 (46)

OH:
Romney 46 (45)
Obama 44 (48)

FL:
Romney 48 (48)
Obama 47 (45)

[cinyc]

I put a lot of doubt into the Ohio numbers. No one has give Romney a lead since May, and the last two polls have shown him either only tied, or behind by 3 or so.

Purple Strategies had Romney up in June in Ohio (and trailing in July).  So the "no one has given Romney a lead since May" mantra is false.  And it's largely irrelevant, anyway.  Polls can change over time.

[Supersonic]

Good poll numbers for America's Comeback Team, although everything is still to play for.

Also, interestingly enough, this is the worst showing for the Republicans in Colorado from a Purple Strategies poll; previously they had a tie and the President ahead by one point. Florida, too, is a state that the GOP should keep a very close eye on. Romney simply cannot afford to lose it.

[Vosem]

My goodness, where do they come up with this stuff?!

They ask a bunch of people, then weight them so they look the way the electorate will. Your belief in an Obama landslide is so cute.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Your belief in an Obama landslide is so cute.

I guess you missed the news that Romney picked Paul Ryan for VP.

[Clinton 2016]

Romney's VP bounce. it wont last long.

[Senator MaxQue]

Florida, too, is a state that the GOP should keep a very close eye on. Romney simply cannot afford to lose it.

For sure, an anti-Medicare VP is the best way to win Florida....

[Vosem]

Your belief in an Obama landslide is so cute.

I guess you missed the news that Romney picked Paul Ryan for VP.

No, I saw it. People like Ryan, Bandit, he has a higher approval rating than Romney, Obama, or Biden.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

No, I saw it. People like Ryan, Bandit, he has a higher approval rating than Romney, Obama, or Biden.

These states have elderly people.

[Vosem]

No, I saw it. People like Ryan, Bandit, he has a higher approval rating than Romney, Obama, or Biden.

These states have elderly people.

All states have elderly people

[J. J.]

No, I saw it. People like Ryan, Bandit, he has a higher approval rating than Romney, Obama, or Biden.

These states have elderly people.

That like Ryan.

[True Federalist]

This poll:

CO: O+3
VA: R+3
OH: R+2
FL: R+1


Purple's previous polls (July / June / April):
CO: O+1 / O+2 / Tie
VA: O+2 / O+3 / O+2
OH: O+3 / R+3 / O+5
FL: R+3 / R+4 / R+2

Looks like it's effectively no change.  A slight nudge to Romney if one wants to push the interpretation of the numbers, but the changes are well within the poll to poll variability Purple has already shown.   Judging by the states that improved for Obama since their last poll, one could also push the Ryan hurts Romney with seniors meme since Colorado and Florida are retiree havens.

In any case, there is certainly nothing to show that Ryan is a gamechanger, and possibly that he is a dud depending on how much of a bounce one expects the mere fact of a veep announcement to generate.

[Senator MaxQue]

No, I saw it. People like Ryan, Bandit, he has a higher approval rating than Romney, Obama, or Biden.

These states have elderly people.

That like Ryan.

Until they hear about him.

[Likely Voter]

Nate silver today showed that most VP picks give candidates a 3 point bump (short lived) so it wouldnt be a surprise if Romney is getting a small bump, if nothing else for the jump in coverage. Its like when he got a bump when he wrapped up the nomination in early May.

[Big Wiggly Style]

Romney's VP bounce. it wont last long.

This, unfortunately.

[opebo]

Your belief in an Obama landslide is so cute.

I guess you missed the news that Romney picked Paul Ryan for VP.

The terrible thing is, Ryan is popular.  I'm telling you guys, the white working class is paradoxical.

[Supersonic]

Florida, too, is a state that the GOP should keep a very close eye on. Romney simply cannot afford to lose it.

For sure, an anti-Medicare VP is the best way to win Florida....

President Obama has raided $716 Billion from Medicare to pay for "Obamacare". Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are working to ensure Medicare is affordable to future generations.

[True Federalist]

Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are working to ensure Medicare is affordable to future generations.

That's sort of like saying that if the Romney/Ryan restaurant were to replace sirloin steak with Salisbury steak, they would be doing do to ensure steak is affordable to future generations.

[Senator MaxQue]

Florida, too, is a state that the GOP should keep a very close eye on. Romney simply cannot afford to lose it.

For sure, an anti-Medicare VP is the best way to win Florida....

President Obama has raided $716 Billion from Medicare to pay for "Obamacare". Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are working to ensure Medicare is affordable to future generations.

Perhaps, perhaps not. The important isn't the facts, but what people believe after they have seen ads.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Salisbury steak is better than eating nothing and starving to death.

[Lieutenant Governor Clinton1996]

Florida, too, is a state that the GOP should keep a very close eye on. Romney simply cannot afford to lose it.

For sure, an anti-Medicare VP is the best way to win Florida....

President Obama has raided $716 Billion from Medicare to pay for "Obamacare". Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are working to ensure Medicare is affordable to future generations.

I don't think turning into a voucher program and letting seniors look for coupons in the newspaper "ensuring Medicare is affordable to future generations".