The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread  (Read 81015 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #175 on: October 12, 2012, 06:12:55 PM »

Latest Early Voting article by Prof Michael McDonald.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-rising_b_1962843.html

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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #176 on: October 12, 2012, 06:14:52 PM »

According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll 10% of Dems have already voted, only 4% of Republicans and 5% of Independents.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12073

Then OH is going Romney.  The votes turned in are running about 7 points for the Democrats.

Again party registration numbers in Ohio are deeply flawed (bangs head against wall).
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J. J.
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« Reply #177 on: October 12, 2012, 06:21:41 PM »


As of today, he is wrong about IA, and his statement contracts his previous statement about NC.
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J. J.
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« Reply #178 on: October 12, 2012, 06:23:07 PM »

According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll 10% of Dems have already voted, only 4% of Republicans and 5% of Independents.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12073

Then OH is going Romney.  The votes turned in are running about 7 points for the Democrats.

Again party registration numbers in Ohio are deeply flawed (bangs head against wall).

And again, while not a perfect measurement, still telling, because the gap has closed by more than half. 
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #179 on: October 12, 2012, 08:15:03 PM »

According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll 10% of Dems have already voted, only 4% of Republicans and 5% of Independents.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12073

Then OH is going Romney.  The votes turned in are running about 7 points for the Democrats.

Again party registration numbers in Ohio are deeply flawed (bangs head against wall).

And again, while not a perfect measurement, still telling, because the gap has closed by more than half. 

Voter registration has gone from about a 60-40 D-R ratio to about a 65-35 R-D ratio. Early voting/absentee voting has moved far less. Literally there are probably around almost twice as many "Republicans" as "Democrats" right now.

Also early voting in Cuyahoga is running ahead of 2008 numbers:

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

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J. J.
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« Reply #180 on: October 12, 2012, 08:19:28 PM »

According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll 10% of Dems have already voted, only 4% of Republicans and 5% of Independents.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12073

Then OH is going Romney.  The votes turned in are running about 7 points for the Democrats.

Again party registration numbers in Ohio are deeply flawed (bangs head against wall).

And again, while not a perfect measurement, still telling, because the gap has closed by more than half. 

Voter registration has gone from about a 60-40 D-R ratio to about a 65-35 R-D ratio. Early voting/absentee voting has moved far less. Literally there are probably around almost twice as many "Republicans" as "Democrats" right now.

Also early voting in Cuyahoga is running ahead of 2008 numbers:

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf



Here are current statistics:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

Now, a lot of those of people (though not all) that voted in the R Primary will be voting for the R candidate.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #181 on: October 12, 2012, 10:16:11 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2012, 10:19:11 PM by Mideast Assemblyman Mr. X »

The Ohio Democrats are timid, so i am fairly certain that Husted will be able to easily steal this state for Robme and the Koch brothers.

[sarcasm]Wow!  Sending everyone an absentee ballot application really suppresses the vote.

Seems like we discovered Husted's "Final solution" (oops) to suppress Democratic votes, get them to vote absentee then toss the ballots for inane reasons. Also don't forget that if someone makes an error on their ballot the local Board of Elections "Cannot" call the voter, they can only mail a form which could take a week if ever to get to the voter. I swear this guy Husted must have a PHD in Election Rigging from MIT.

Listen pal, I don't know what your problem is and I honestly don't care, you need to start showing some respect for the victims of the Holocaust.  That's really not asking much.  If you can't even do that, than there's something wrong with you and you're no better than the tea-party crowd.  This wasn't even you using a term like "Gestapo" in casual conversation to refer to an organization, this was just you being obnoxious.  There was no point to it (which is why you included the "oops").  It was essentially an "f-you" to me for criticizing your disgusting earlier post.  It's about time you cut this crap out.  Grow up or shut up.
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JFK-Democrat
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« Reply #182 on: October 12, 2012, 10:38:21 PM »

Mr x or is it zero?...you are now on ignore buh bye...
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #183 on: October 13, 2012, 12:25:35 AM »

JJ makes me want to completely abandon this thread.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #184 on: October 13, 2012, 12:36:29 AM »

My favorite J.J. characteristic is his tendency to repeat the same thing over and over again, dismissing all evidence to the contrary and even ignoring and discounting the word of people who are actually experts on the thing he's talking about.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #185 on: October 13, 2012, 02:19:53 AM »

The Ohio Democrats are timid, so i am fairly certain that Husted will be able to easily steal this state for Robme and the Koch brothers.

[sarcasm]Wow!  Sending everyone an absentee ballot application really suppresses the vote.

Seems like we discovered Husted's "Final solution" (oops) to suppress Democratic votes, get them to vote absentee then toss the ballots for inane reasons. Also don't forget that if someone makes an error on their ballot the local Board of Elections "Cannot" call the voter, they can only mail a form which could take a week if ever to get to the voter. I swear this guy Husted must have a PHD in Election Rigging from MIT.

Listen pal, I don't know what your problem is and I honestly don't care, you need to start showing some respect for the victims of the Holocaust.  That's really not asking much.  If you can't even do that, than there's something wrong with you and you're no better than the tea-party crowd.  This wasn't even you using a term like "Gestapo" in casual conversation to refer to an organization, this was just you being obnoxious.  There was no point to it (which is why you included the "oops").  It was essentially an "f-you" to me for criticizing your disgusting earlier post.  It's about time you cut this crap out.  Grow up or shut up.
Drop the hammer on him, man. It's astounding the amount of idiots come out of the woodwork come election time. While the 'ignore' button is a wonderful feature, it does the forum good to have people actually calling them, too. I have a hard time keeping my temper in those kinds of situations, so I have to just hit 'ignore' or end up stooping lower.
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J. J.
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« Reply #186 on: October 13, 2012, 05:51:48 AM »

My favorite J.J. characteristic is his tendency to repeat the same thing over and over again, dismissing all evidence to the contrary and even ignoring and discounting the word of people who are actually experts on the thing he's talking about.

No, I am saying point blank that, as of yesterday, MacDonald was wrong, regarding IA.  Now, in all fairness, he probably wrote the blog before that happened.  As of yesterday, the gap has closed.  It had been closing for the past week.  The gap is shrinking.

Also, based on MacDonald's earlier statement, the gap is larger, and more favorable to the GOP, in NC.

I will add the words, "so far," to both.  The gap in NC has narrowed.

OH does have the registration issue, however, there is still a very large narrowing of that gap, as of yesterday.
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bore
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« Reply #187 on: October 13, 2012, 06:09:32 AM »

Might have already been posted, but this is a good website for keeping track of all the early voting: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html
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J. J.
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« Reply #188 on: October 13, 2012, 06:30:51 AM »

Might have already been posted, but this is a good website for keeping track of all the early voting: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

That is the one I've bee using.

NC, basically on the last day of registration, the Democrats are down 72,934 from this point in 2008. There are still some applications unprocessed and "same day voters" can register.  In 2008, that accounted for a net gain of 40,000.  (I expect that net gain to be slightly lower in 2012.)

http://www.ncsbe.gov/content.aspx?id=41

In looking over the last the three weeks, the net D gain was roughly

9/29/12

8,000

10/6/12

8,800

10/13/12

7,300

That final number may simply be natural or it may be a measure of enthusiasm. 


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krazen1211
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« Reply #189 on: October 13, 2012, 08:45:31 AM »

http://www.vpap.org/updates/show/1072


Virginia voting figures.
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JFK-Democrat
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« Reply #190 on: October 13, 2012, 11:18:56 AM »

The Ohio Democrats are timid, so i am fairly certain that Husted will be able to easily steal this state for Robme and the Koch brothers.

[sarcasm]Wow!  Sending everyone an absentee ballot application really suppresses the vote.

Seems like we discovered Husted's "Final solution" (oops) to suppress Democratic votes, get them to vote absentee then toss the ballots for inane reasons. Also don't forget that if someone makes an error on their ballot the local Board of Elections "Cannot" call the voter, they can only mail a form which could take a week if ever to get to the voter. I swear this guy Husted must have a PHD in Election Rigging from MIT.

Listen pal, I don't know what your problem is and I honestly don't care, you need to start showing some respect for the victims of the Holocaust.  That's really not asking much.  If you can't even do that, than there's something wrong with you and you're no better than the tea-party crowd.  This wasn't even you using a term like "Gestapo" in casual conversation to refer to an organization, this was just you being obnoxious.  There was no point to it (which is why you included the "oops").  It was essentially an "f-you" to me for criticizing your disgusting earlier post.  It's about time you cut this crap out.  Grow up or shut up.
Drop the hammer on him, man. It's astounding the amount of idiots come out of the woodwork come election time. While the 'ignore' button is a wonderful feature, it does the forum good to have people actually calling them, too. I have a hard time keeping my temper in those kinds of situations, so I have to just hit 'ignore' or end up stooping lower.

Yawn, Another "panty waist" Internet Tough-Guy. Smiley

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J. J.
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« Reply #191 on: October 13, 2012, 11:39:48 AM »


So far, everything is pointing to a more Republican electorate than 2008.
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philly09
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« Reply #192 on: October 13, 2012, 03:12:11 PM »


So far, everything is pointing to a more Republican electorate than 2008.


How do you know those Republicans aren't voting for Goode?
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J. J.
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« Reply #193 on: October 13, 2012, 04:36:37 PM »


So far, everything is pointing to a more Republican electorate than 2008.


How do you know those Republicans aren't voting for Goode?

Probably not, based on the poll numbers. 

These might be a good indication of turnout or enthusiasm. 
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #194 on: October 13, 2012, 04:43:39 PM »


So far, everything is pointing to a more Republican electorate than 2008.

Of course the electorate is going to be more Republican. You don't need to look at those numbers to learn that. The question is whether or not it's going to me more Republican enough to reverse a 7% Obama lead.
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J. J.
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« Reply #195 on: October 13, 2012, 05:28:57 PM »


So far, everything is pointing to a more Republican electorate than 2008.

Of course the electorate is going to be more Republican. You don't need to look at those numbers to learn that. The question is whether or not it's going to me more Republican enough to reverse a 7% Obama lead.

That also can have an effect on the weighting in polls.

Very probably, it is enough to reverse, at least in some states.  We are also seeing some things like registration (in some states).
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #196 on: October 13, 2012, 08:59:34 PM »

When does the Texas start?
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J. J.
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« Reply #197 on: October 13, 2012, 09:05:25 PM »


10/22-11/6 for early voting.

http://www.votetexas.gov/faq/
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #198 on: October 14, 2012, 12:26:45 AM »


So far, everything is pointing to a more Republican electorate than 2008.

Ahhh, J.J. ... Roll Eyes

How do you know that out of the 60.000 votes that were cast so far in VA (compared with a total of 600.000 early votes in 2008), that there will be a more Republican turnout this year ?

That's nonsense and you know it.
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J. J.
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« Reply #199 on: October 14, 2012, 05:18:40 AM »


So far, everything is pointing to a more Republican electorate than 2008.

Ahhh, J.J. ... Roll Eyes

How do you know that out of the 60.000 votes that were cast so far in VA (compared with a total of 600.000 early votes in 2008), that there will be a more Republican turnout this year ?

That's nonsense and you know it.

I said that it is pointing to a better Republican turnout.  The indications are that it will be, and that is hardly controversial.  It is nonsense to say that it isn't.
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