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| | |-+  The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread  (Read 39491 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #25 on: September 08, 2012, 04:07:16 pm »
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So North Carolina is already tied!
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Andrew
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« Reply #26 on: September 08, 2012, 07:51:18 pm »
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I think early voting should be restricted until the debates are done.
This might make sense if the debates included more than just the Republican and the Democrat.  What's the point of making people wait until they have more exposure to just two of their choices?
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« Reply #27 on: September 09, 2012, 04:12:52 am »
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If early voting is to ensure nobody may miss (or decide to skip) an election due to tight life schedules, seven days should suffice really. That would also still be close enough to the concept of a snapshot of the mood at one specific point.
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« Reply #28 on: September 09, 2012, 05:14:06 am »
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I have absolutely no problem with absentee ballots coming out early. Honestly the voters that request an absentee ballot that early are the ones that care to research the candidates on the ballot, I mean President isn't the ONLY one on it. I for one always request my ballot ahead of time and sit with it for at least a month as I go through and research the amendments and candidates and vote bit by bit. 
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Armand Duval
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« Reply #29 on: September 10, 2012, 05:59:49 am »
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And how about organizing the election on a f***king Sunday so a large majority of people could actually vote that day ?
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« Reply #30 on: September 10, 2012, 06:18:26 am »
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And how about organizing the election on a f***king Sunday so a large majority of people could actually vote that day ?

Because that would be the opposite of what one major party wants.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #31 on: September 14, 2012, 01:31:57 am »
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I would have thought there are more requests for absentee ballots in NC ...

So far, after 1 week, there are only 30.000 requests and 200 returned ballots.

Similar to 2008 numbers though. But I guess the bulk of requests will only come after the debates.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #32 on: September 15, 2012, 10:18:56 pm »
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NC thus far.



Party Reg   
Dem.   42.6%
Rep.   39.8%
None/Oth   17.6%
Age   
18-29   7.5%
30-44   16.8%
45-59   20.0%
60+   55.7%
Race   
White   78.4%
Black   16.3%
Hispanic   0.0%
Other/None   5.3%
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J. J.
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« Reply #33 on: September 15, 2012, 11:13:31 pm »
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Krazen, what was the racial make-up of the absentee votes cast in 2008?  The black population is about 21%, so it is underrepresented so far.
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J. J.

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« Reply #34 on: September 15, 2012, 11:15:30 pm »
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I read that Romney's early vote/Absentee strategy is to get his leaners and swing voters out and then save the firmer parts of his base for election day GOTV, while Obama is doing just the opposite. 
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« Reply #35 on: September 16, 2012, 02:22:48 am »
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Call me old fashion but I think voting should be a national statement of opinion as of a single day or so (except for valid traditional absentee voting from people who cannot get to the polls on election day).

I would prefer a weekend vote with polls open 6 AM to 9 PM.

This.
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« Reply #36 on: September 16, 2012, 02:34:06 am »
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Krazen, what was the racial make-up of the absentee votes cast in 2008?  The black population is about 21%, so it is underrepresented so far.

I can't find racial statistics, but Obama won 56% of absentee/one-stop voters in 2008.
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« Reply #37 on: September 16, 2012, 08:35:59 am »
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Krazen, what was the racial make-up of the absentee votes cast in 2008?  The black population is about 21%, so it is underrepresented so far.

It's both absentee and early voting.


2008   2004
Party
Dem
51.4%   48.6%
Rep
30.2%   37.4%
None
18.5%   14.1%

Age
18-29
14.9%   
30-44
23.5%   
45-64
40.2%   
65+
21.4%   

Race
White
69.2%   
Black
26.5%   
Other
4.3%   
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JFK-Democrat
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« Reply #38 on: September 16, 2012, 10:27:10 am »
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NC thus far.



Party Reg   
Dem.   42.6%
Rep.   39.8%
None/Oth   17.6%
Age   
18-29   7.5%
30-44   16.8%
45-59   20.0%
60+   55.7%
Race   
White   78.4%
Black   16.3%
Hispanic   0.0%
Other/None   5.3%



Is the stat above for ballots returned or requested? Also how many total ballots have been returned so far?
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« Reply #39 on: September 16, 2012, 10:41:19 am »
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Krazen, what was the racial make-up of the absentee votes cast in 2008?  The black population is about 21%, so it is underrepresented so far.

It's both absentee and early voting.


2008   2004
Party
Dem
51.4%   48.6%
Rep
30.2%   37.4%
None
18.5%   14.1%

Age
18-29
14.9%   
30-44
23.5%   
45-64
40.2%   
65+
21.4%   

Race
White
69.2%   
Black
26.5%   
Other
4.3%   

Thank you.

So far, those numbers do not look good for Obama.  The key phrase is, "so far."
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« Reply #40 on: September 16, 2012, 11:29:28 am »
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WOW ! 300 ballots returned ! Out of 4.500.000 ! Resultz not looking good for Obama ! Democrats have only 4% advantage so far !
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J. J.
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« Reply #41 on: September 16, 2012, 07:18:59 pm »
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WOW ! 300 ballots returned ! Out of 4.500.000 ! Resultz not looking good for Obama ! Democrats have only 4% advantage so far !

It''s an early indication, which is why the key words are "so far."  It's not great, but it is something to watch, intensity. 
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J. J.

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« Reply #42 on: September 17, 2012, 01:33:51 am »
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That's good (in a way). I want an exciting election night. If Obama wins North Carolina (or even comes very close to winning it), this thing is probably beyond over. If Romney wins it by a decent margin, we're probably in for a long night.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #43 on: September 19, 2012, 12:21:20 am »
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More mail ballots in now in NC, but still only 1.300 so far, out of about 40.000 requested so far.

Prof. McDonald notes:

Quote
Returned Ballots

North Carolina election officials processed twice as many returned ballots on Monday as have been cast so far in the election, raising the number of returned ballots to 1,268.

More registered Democrats have returned mail ballots than registered Republicans, by 4.5 percentage points (43.3% to 38.8%).

In 2008, registered Republicans vastly outnumbered registered Democrats among all returned mail ballots, by 25.7 percentage points (53.7% to 30.0%).

These are "early" numbers, so the previous pattern where registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats among mail ballots -- observed in many states -- may eventually reassert itself once more ballots are returned.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #44 on: September 19, 2012, 12:24:37 am »
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Meanwhile, Kentucky and Indiana have started absentee voting on Monday and Wisconsin will start tomorrow. Just in time, after Mitt's "victim" remark ... Smiley
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #45 on: September 19, 2012, 09:11:24 pm »
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Cool Link to keep track of North Carolina Early Voting (with graphs and maps)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

And FWIW

Quote
In 2008, registered Republicans vastly outnumbered registered Democrats among all mail ballots -- not all early voters -- by 25.7 percentage points (53.7% to 30.0%).

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html
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Michael
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« Reply #46 on: September 19, 2012, 11:08:50 pm »
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@Minnesota Mike

Cool indeed, thanks for sharing.
It's nice how you can vote offshore.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2012, 11:10:22 pm by Michael »Logged
J. J.
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« Reply #47 on: September 19, 2012, 11:17:18 pm »
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Cool Link to keep track of North Carolina Early Voting (with graphs and maps)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

And FWIW

Quote
In 2008, registered Republicans vastly outnumbered registered Democrats among all mail ballots -- not all early voters -- by 25.7 percentage points (53.7% to 30.0%).

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Thanks for the link.  Krazen's voter numbers show that absentee/early voting was Democratic in 2004 and 2008




It's both absentee and early voting.


2008             2004
Party
Dem
51.4%   48.6%
Rep
30.2%   37.4%
None
18.5%   14.1%

Age
18-29
14.9%   
30-44
23.5%   
45-64
40.2%   
65+
21.4%   

Race
White
69.2%   
Black
26.5%   
Other
4.3%   

The source is here:  http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

If this this continues, NC could be lost to Obama.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2012, 11:37:41 pm by J. J. »Logged

J. J.

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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #48 on: September 20, 2012, 12:07:12 am »
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Cool Link to keep track of North Carolina Early Voting (with graphs and maps)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

And FWIW

Quote
In 2008, registered Republicans vastly outnumbered registered Democrats among all mail ballots -- not all early voters -- by 25.7 percentage points (53.7% to 30.0%).

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Thanks for the link.  Krazen's voter numbers show that absentee/early voting was Democratic in 2004 and 2008




It's both absentee and early voting.


2008             2004
Party
Dem
51.4%   48.6%
Rep
30.2%   37.4%
None
18.5%   14.1%

Age
18-29
14.9%   
30-44
23.5%   
45-64
40.2%   
65+
21.4%   

Race
White
69.2%   
Black
26.5%   
Other
4.3%   

The source is here:  http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

If this this continues, NC could be lost to Obama.

You are confusing early mail-in ballots (which were a small number, that voted GOP+20) and "later" early and absentee voting (which was ca. 2.5 Million voters, that voted Obama+21).

You have to compare these early numbers now with the GOP+20 number from 2008, as Prof. Michael McDonald notes.
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« Reply #49 on: September 21, 2012, 12:41:17 am »
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ah, the problem with these sorts of things.
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