The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Lief 🗽]

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http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/declareorchangeparty.aspx

Now, one explanation for those numbers is that all the polls are wrong and Democratic enthusiasm is down massively. Or the other is that there are fewer "registered Democrats" this year because all being a "registered Democrat" means in Ohio is that you voted in the last Democratic primary.

[Minnesota Mike]

Iowa

Returned- 13.812

Dem- 64%
Rep- 19%
Other- 17%

Requested- 203,081

Dem- 63%
Rep- 15%
Other 22%

[nhmagic]

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http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/declareorchangeparty.aspx

Now, one explanation for those numbers is that all the polls are wrong and Democratic enthusiasm is down massively. Or the other is that there are fewer "registered Democrats" this year because all being a "registered Democrat" means in Ohio is that you voted in the last Democratic primary.

Yeah, but if you're a democrat in 2008, and you dont vote in 2010, that still means youre registered as a democrat in 2012 by that standard.  They don't just reregister your party as an unaffiliated voter.  You have to request an absentee ballot to get one, which means that democrats still aren't requesting ballots at the rate republicans are.  That means enthusiasm is down.

[J. J.]

Iowa

Returned- 13.812

Dem- 64%
Rep- 19%
Other- 17%

Requested- 203,081

Dem- 63%
Rep- 15%
Other 22%

Which was also high in 2008.  I'm looking for the difference, positive or negative, over 2008.

[Skill and Chance]

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http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/declareorchangeparty.aspx

Now, one explanation for those numbers is that all the polls are wrong and Democratic enthusiasm is down massively. Or the other is that there are fewer "registered Democrats" this year because all being a "registered Democrat" means in Ohio is that you voted in the last Democratic primary.

Yeah, but if you're a democrat in 2008, and you dont vote in 2010, that still means youre registered as a democrat in 2012 by that standard.  They don't just reregister your party as an unaffiliated voter.  You have to request an absentee ballot to get one, which means that democrats still aren't requesting ballots at the rate republicans are.  That means enthusiasm is down.

No.  It doesn't reach back to 2008.  Ohio party affiliation is calculated going back 2 years, so 2010 and 2012 primaries count, 2008 does not.

"(3) That the person is not affiliated with or is not a member of the political party whose ballot the person desires to vote. Such party affiliation shall be determined by examining the elector’s voting record for the current year and the immediately preceding two calendar years as shown on the voter’s registration card, using the standards of affiliation specified in the seventh paragraph of section 3513.05 of the Revised Code."

http://codes.ohio.gov/orc/3513.19

If you didn't vote in the D primary in 2010 or 2012, you aren't considered a Democrat in Ohio.

[Minnesota Mike]

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http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/declareorchangeparty.aspx

Now, one explanation for those numbers is that all the polls are wrong and Democratic enthusiasm is down massively. Or the other is that there are fewer "registered Democrats" this year because all being a "registered Democrat" means in Ohio is that you voted in the last Democratic primary.

Yeah, but if you're a democrat in 2008, and you dont vote in 2010, that still means youre registered as a democrat in 2012 by that standard.  They don't just reregister your party as an unaffiliated voter.  You have to request an absentee ballot to get one, which means that democrats still aren't requesting ballots at the rate republicans are.  That means enthusiasm is down.

I think there are a lot of people in Ohio like me, I plan on voting straight Democratic in November but since there were no competitive races on the Democratic side where I live I voted in the Republican Primary.

BTW wasn't Ohio one of Rush's Operation Chaos states in 2008? Lots of ditto heads voted for Hillary and were officially classified as Democrats.

[Minnesota Mike]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/declareorchangeparty.aspx

Now, one explanation for those numbers is that all the polls are wrong and Democratic enthusiasm is down massively. Or the other is that there are fewer "registered Democrats" this year because all being a "registered Democrat" means in Ohio is that you voted in the last Democratic primary.

Yeah, but if you're a democrat in 2008, and you dont vote in 2010, that still means youre registered as a democrat in 2012 by that standard.  They don't just reregister your party as an unaffiliated voter.  You have to request an absentee ballot to get one, which means that democrats still aren't requesting ballots at the rate republicans are.  That means enthusiasm is down.

No.  It doesn't reach back to 2008.  Ohio party affiliation is calculated going back 2 years, so 2010 and 2012 primaries count, 2008 does not.

"(3) That the person is not affiliated with or is not a member of the political party whose ballot the person desires to vote. Such party affiliation shall be determined by examining the elector’s voting record for the current year and the immediately preceding two calendar years as shown on the voter’s registration card, using the standards of affiliation specified in the seventh paragraph of section 3513.05 of the Revised Code."

http://codes.ohio.gov/orc/3513.19

If you didn't vote in the D primary in 2010 or 2012, you aren't considered a Democrat in Ohio.

Well Done

[Badger]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/declareorchangeparty.aspx

Now, one explanation for those numbers is that all the polls are wrong and Democratic enthusiasm is down massively. Or the other is that there are fewer "registered Democrats" this year because all being a "registered Democrat" means in Ohio is that you voted in the last Democratic primary.

Yeah, but if you're a democrat in 2008, and you dont vote in 2010, that still means youre registered as a democrat in 2012 by that standard.  They don't just reregister your party as an unaffiliated voter.  You have to request an absentee ballot to get one, which means that democrats still aren't requesting ballots at the rate republicans are.  That means enthusiasm is down.

Since you either missed or ignored the past time I made this challenge, NHMagic, I'm officially calling you out. The offer below is extended to you.

POLITICO!!!

There, now that I have your attention....

You talked about "talking the talk, but not walking the walk". I am MORE than happy to give you the chance.

Try to be more a statatician then a zealot in analyzing elections, and I think that's your shortcoming here.

I willing to bet you the outcome of any current 08 Obama state at $5 each EXCEPT CO & FL & NC; I'll also give you 5-8 odds on OH, VA, IA, NH and WI (yes, I'm excluding NV from that list) and 2-1 odds on any other Obama 08 states.

I'll be glad to give you 3-2 odds on a $20 bet over the entire election as well. Alternatively, we can bet the other having to bare a (non-TOS violating) sig of the other's choice until Inauguration Day.

Time to walk the walk, Mr. Optomist........

[dspNY]

According to the US Elections Project, North Carolina stands like this:

10,596 absentee ballots banked

Dem: 30.9%
GOP: 50.2%
Ind: 19.0%

Don't remember what the absentee ballots looked like in 2008 out of North Carolina, but I think they were also around 20% in favor of the GOP, so the Dems are keeping pace here

[J. J.]

According to the US Elections Project, North Carolina stands like this:

10,596 absentee ballots banked

Dem: 30.9%
GOP: 50.2%
Ind: 19.0%

Don't remember what the absentee ballots looked like in 2008 out of North Carolina, but I think they were also around 20% in favor of the GOP, so the Dems are keeping pace here

Those are the ones returned so far and that number has been creeping up.  The applications, are running at about a 26% increase.  I'll add the words, so far.

[TJ in Oregon]

Of course R's are going to be doing better. Ohio doesn't have party registration. Your "registration" is based on which primary you voted in. The Republicans had a contested presidential primary in Ohio; the Democrats had nothing to vote for.

Don't ruin it for them, they are having so much fun.

Heh, I'm a registered Democrat in Ohio so that should clearly demonstrate the limitations of using party registration.

[Sbane]

I voted in the Republican primary in 2010 and 2012. That means I am going to vote for Romney, right guys?

[RI]

I voted in the Republican primary in 2010 and 2012. That means I am going to vote for Romney, right guys?

I caucused for Santorum this year, but I'm definitely not voting for Romney.

[JFK-Democrat]

I think most of the Obama North Carolina early votes was cast "in-person" in 2008.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Of course R's are going to be doing better. Ohio doesn't have party registration. Your "registration" is based on which primary you voted in. The Republicans had a contested presidential primary in Ohio; the Democrats had nothing to vote for.

Don't ruin it for them, they are having so much fun.

Heh, I'm a registered Democrat in Ohio so that should clearly demonstrate the limitations of using party registration.

Isn't Ohio an open primary state?

[TJ in Oregon]

Of course R's are going to be doing better. Ohio doesn't have party registration. Your "registration" is based on which primary you voted in. The Republicans had a contested presidential primary in Ohio; the Democrats had nothing to vote for.

Don't ruin it for them, they are having so much fun.

Heh, I'm a registered Democrat in Ohio so that should clearly demonstrate the limitations of using party registration.

Isn't Ohio an open primary state?

Yes. If you vote in a partisan primary, the state then counts you as registered for that party.

[J. J.]

NC Requested Ballots:

Dem    26,707    26.2%
Rep    54,329    53.3%
None/Oth    20,958    20.5%
Total    101,994    

NC Returned Ballots:

Party Reg    
Dem    29.6%
Rep    51.5%
None/Oth    18.8%

In 2008, it was about a 20 point gap.  So far, the Republican ballots are running at least  slightly higher by either measure.  Both numbers have been equal or better for the past week.

[Gass3268]

I sent my Wisconsin ballot in a week ago!

[Tender Branson]

New SurveyUSA vote breakdown for NC:

Mail-in voters (7%): 58-39 Romney
Early in person voters (43%): 59-39 Obama
Election Day voters (48%): 53-41 Romney

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d3014bce-c607-464f-b452-de331971667d

The mail in advantage (R+20)  is what we currently see in the returns. Once the early in person voting starts Obama will get a huge boost and then Romney wins the election day voters. All in all, we'll only see on Nov. 7 who won the state.

[Mister Twister]

NC Requested Ballots:

Dem    26,707    26.2%
Rep    54,329    53.3%
None/Oth    20,958    20.5%
Total    101,994    

NC Returned Ballots:

Party Reg    
Dem    29.6%
Rep    51.5%
None/Oth    18.8%

In 2008, it was about a 20 point gap.  So far, the Republican ballots are running at least  slightly higher by either measure.  Both numbers have been equal or better for the past week.

So Romney is on track to win NC 50-49 so far?

[J. J.]

New SurveyUSA vote breakdown for NC:

Mail-in voters (7%): 58-39 Romney
Early in person voters (43%): 59-39 Obama
Election Day voters (48%): 53-41 Romney

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d3014bce-c607-464f-b452-de331971667d

The mail in advantage (R+20)  is what we currently see in the returns. Once the early in person voting starts Obama will get a huge boost and then Romney wins the election day voters. All in all, we'll only see on Nov. 7 who won the state.

When does early voting start?

As of yesterday, black turnout is 8.2%.

The current numbers are R +23 (well 22.9) in votes cast, with absentee requests at R +27, both as of yesterday.

[J. J.]

Today's NC numbers:

Party Reg Ballot Requests
Dem 28,559 26.3%
Rep 57,516 53.0%
None/Oth 22,364 20.6%
Total 108,439


Actual votes (about 0.5% of 2008 numbers)

Party Reg 
Dem 28.8%
Rep 52.6%
None/Oth 18.6%
Age 
18-29 7.8%
30-44 10.4%
45-59 20.0%
60+ 61.7%
Race 
White 88.3%
Black 7.8%
Other/None 3.9%
Gender 
Female 55.9%
Male 43.4%
Unknown 0.7%

Requests closed a bit.  Actual ballots case increased a bit.  I'd guess that a batch of absentee ballots came in.

[Politico]

I think it's obvious that NC is in the Romney column.

Two down, four to go (i.e., IN/NC down, FL/VA/OH/Other to go).

[You kip if you want to...]

I think it's obvious that NC is in the Romney column.

Erm, are you on crack?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html#polls

[J. J.]

I think it's obvious that NC is in the Romney column.

Erm, are you on crack?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html#polls

We're looking at actual numbers, so far at any rate.  Republicans are performing better than in 2008, at least in NC.