The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread  (Read 81020 times)
Politico
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« Reply #100 on: October 03, 2012, 10:52:49 AM »
« edited: October 03, 2012, 10:54:23 AM by Politico »


We're looking at actual numbers, so far at any rate.  Republicans are performing better than in 2008, at least in NC.

This.

Plus, Obama only won the state by 0.32% while running on "hope and change" following a financial crisis (is "fear and smear" during an economic malaise really going to do the job this time?).

That aside, why in the world would I expect him to win it in 2012 if he is not even doing as well so far as he did at this point in 2008? Because some polls say otherwise? The actual numbers relative to 2008 are more indicative of what is going to happen than any poll. There is clearly something wrong with the polls when you look at actual voting patterns thus far.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #101 on: October 03, 2012, 01:30:29 PM »

Hahaha, Politico is really on crack.

He thinks NC is "in the bag" for Romney with 1% of the vote in.

If he'd look at the SUSA poll that shows Romney ahead by 58-39 among the EARLIEST in-person voters, then he'd shoot not so fast.
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J. J.
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« Reply #102 on: October 04, 2012, 10:15:11 AM »

Hahaha, Politico is really on crack.

He thinks NC is "in the bag" for Romney with 1% of the vote in.

If he'd look at the SUSA poll that shows Romney ahead by 58-39 among the EARLIEST in-person voters, then he'd shoot not so fast.

As of now, that poll is not matching what is happening on the ground.  That can change, but there is also the possibility that in NC, SUSA is underweighing Republican turnout, by 3-6 points.  So far, there is no evidence of a national trend, but it is in NC.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #103 on: October 04, 2012, 07:27:26 PM »

Don't read to much into the North Carolina numbers so far. The average age of voters so far is 63 with more people in their 70's and 80's having cast ballots than people in there 20's and 30's.
This is largely the nursing home vote.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

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J. J.
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« Reply #104 on: October 04, 2012, 08:41:20 PM »

Don't read to much into the North Carolina numbers so far. The average age of voters so far is 63 with more people in their 70's and 80's having cast ballots than people in there 20's and 30's.
This is largely the nursing home vote.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/



However, comparing the early numbers in 2012 with the early numbers in 2008, it appears to be a 4-6 point GOP increase.  That is basically a turnout factor.
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J. J.
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« Reply #105 on: October 04, 2012, 11:46:32 PM »

Here are IA's request from 2008

http://okhenderson.com/2008/10/30/2008-absentee-ballot-numbers-in-iowa/

So far, in terms of requests democrats are running about 6 points higher than 2008, and Republicans are running about 3 points below where they were in 2008. 
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President von Cat
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« Reply #106 on: October 05, 2012, 06:06:47 AM »

I voted absentee yesterday from China. Because I moved home before moving here, I had to register to vote in my home state of Massachusetts. Normally this would suck because Massachusetts is a foregone conclusion in elections these days, but the Senate race has been pretty compelling. I held my nose and voted for Warren, though I like Brown and hope he runs for governor in 2014.
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J. J.
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« Reply #107 on: October 05, 2012, 02:06:08 PM »

So far, OH absentee numbers are showing an increase in R percentage of the vote, though D are still leading.

2008

R:  19%

D:  32%

2012:

R:  24%

D:  30%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

Because of how the count party affiliation, both these numbers are weak in terms of party ID.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #108 on: October 05, 2012, 06:57:15 PM »

So far, OH absentee numbers are showing an increase in R percentage of the vote, though D are still leading.

2008

R:  19%

D:  32%

2012:

R:  24%

D:  30%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

Because of how the count party affiliation, both these numbers are weak in terms of party ID.

Hard to make heads or tails of this. From what we have, I would say Democratic turnout is keeping pace with 2008(which is also supported by the Iowa numbers) while Republican turnout is up a bit. Some Republican voters in Ohio may well be Democrats who voted for Santorum in the Primary, especially in Cleveland where he did very well comparatively, but I suspect even with that they are seeing an increase. 30%(and rising due to the start of in-person) v. 32% for Democrats is probably all due to falling identification due to no primaries in 2010 or 2012.
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J. J.
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« Reply #109 on: October 05, 2012, 08:45:12 PM »

OH has a clearly greater portion of "Republicans" in the early voting in 2012 than in 2008 by about 7 points.  It is probably closer in terms of actual Romney supporter versus McCain supporters as well.  That might not be 7 points.
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J. J.
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« Reply #110 on: October 05, 2012, 11:16:04 PM »

The gap, in terms of ballot requests, in IA, is closing slightly.  R's are about two point below their 2008 return level.
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J. J.
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« Reply #111 on: October 06, 2012, 09:30:29 AM »

NC voter registration, showed a net gain of D's over the last week of 7858.

There is now a net loss for the D's since 2008 of 80,224 in NC.
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J. J.
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« Reply #112 on: October 06, 2012, 09:09:07 PM »

In terms of absentees, OH just got a little closer.  It was +13 D in 2008, and it is now +5, and narrowing.

NC is holding at +25-26, up 5-6 points in terms of absentee ballots.

I think NC is probably going to shift to lean Romney.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #113 on: October 06, 2012, 09:22:11 PM »

In terms of absentees, OH just got a little closer.  It was +13 D in 2008, and it is now +5, and narrowing.

NC is holding at +25-26, up 5-6 points in terms of absentee ballots.

I think NC is probably going to shift to lean Romney.

Ohio is an apples to oranges comparison. Since there is no real party registration you can't really make a valid comparison to 2008.

As for NC we only have about 0.6% of the vote in, way to early to project anything.
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J. J.
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« Reply #114 on: October 06, 2012, 09:32:07 PM »

In terms of absentees, OH just got a little closer.  It was +13 D in 2008, and it is now +5, and narrowing.

NC is holding at +25-26, up 5-6 points in terms of absentee ballots.

I think NC is probably going to shift to lean Romney.

Ohio is an apples to oranges comparison. Since there is no real party registration you can't really make a valid comparison to 2008.


I've made that point before, but the bulk of the Republicans are really Republicans; that closing, from 2008 is substantial.

[/quote]

As for NC we only have about 0.6% of the vote in, way to early to project anything.
[/quote]

No, the amount is equal to 0.6% of the turnout in 2008.  The absentees accounted for about 8% of the vote.  Further, comparing the requests from 2008 with today's numbers, there is still a 5-6 point gap.

We have a lower turnout and a significantly more GOP electorate in NC.  So far, the black voters have represented a smaller portion of the electorate.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #115 on: October 06, 2012, 09:37:10 PM »

NC voter registration, showed a net gain of D's over the last week of 7858.

There is now a net loss for the D's since 2008 of 80,224 in NC.

Party Registration numbers in the South can be deceiving. How much of that 80,000 Dem decline is actually Obama voters? How much is Blue Dogs who voted for McCain? To me the more interesting numbers are the registered voters broken down by race. Total voter registration is up by about 244,000 and about 175,000 of that is minority voters.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #116 on: October 06, 2012, 09:46:23 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2012, 09:47:56 PM by Minnesota Mike »

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We don't know that. The starting and election days don't match up exactly but we have actually have more ballots returned so far this cycle than on this date in 2008.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/date/1223190000/

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J. J.
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« Reply #117 on: October 06, 2012, 09:49:47 PM »

NC voter registration, showed a net gain of D's over the last week of 7858.

There is now a net loss for the D's since 2008 of 80,224 in NC.

Party Registration numbers in the South can be deceiving. How much of that 80,000 Dem decline is actually Obama voters? How much is Blue Dogs who voted for McCain? To me the more interesting numbers are the registered voters broken down by race. Total voter registration is up by about 244,000 and about 175,000 of that is minority voters.

And there, turnout seems to be substantially lower.

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We don't know that. The starting and election days don't match up exactly but we have actually have more ballots returned so far this cycle than on this date in 2008.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/date/1223190000/



And those have been substantially more Republican ballots.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #118 on: October 06, 2012, 10:03:03 PM »

NC voter registration, showed a net gain of D's over the last week of 7858.

There is now a net loss for the D's since 2008 of 80,224 in NC.

Party Registration numbers in the South can be deceiving. How much of that 80,000 Dem decline is actually Obama voters? How much is Blue Dogs who voted for McCain? To me the more interesting numbers are the registered voters broken down by race. Total voter registration is up by about 244,000 and about 175,000 of that is minority voters.

And there, turnout seems to be substantially lower.

Quote
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We don't know that. The starting and election days don't match up exactly but we have actually have more ballots returned so far this cycle than on this date in 2008.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/date/1223190000/



And those have been substantially more Republican ballots.

Returned Ballots

Oct 5 2008

19,464 Ballots returned

Reps 57.1%
Dems 27.9%

Oct 5 2012

25,263 Ballots returned

Reps 53.3%
Dems 28.2%





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J. J.
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« Reply #119 on: October 06, 2012, 11:23:36 PM »


Returned Ballots

Oct 5 2008

19,464 Ballots returned

Reps 57.1%
Dems 27.9%

Oct 5 2012

25,263 Ballots returned

Reps 53.3%
Dems 28.2%


We have about 25% of the requested ballots returned; at this point in 2008, it was only 15% of the over all requests, and it was closer to the dead line for a request.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #120 on: October 07, 2012, 12:26:35 AM »

Pro-tip for Mike: don't waste your time arguing with J.J. You'd make more progress with a brick wall.
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J. J.
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« Reply #121 on: October 07, 2012, 12:55:35 AM »

Pro-tip for Mike: don't waste your time arguing with J.J. You'd make more progress with a brick wall.

Lief, the numbers were showing, so far, that the ballot requests are 25% in.  You can't change that.  There is time to request.

NC is also showing an 80,000 Democratic net loss so far from 2008.  It is possible that they can make it up, but their "late registration" looks to be about 60% of what it was in 2008.  That doesn't factor in any effect from the debate.
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Politico
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« Reply #122 on: October 07, 2012, 01:22:28 AM »
« Edited: October 07, 2012, 01:25:11 AM by Politico »

Democrats would be wise to forget about NC and start paying attention to MI, PA and maybe even OR...

If Democrats still want to win this, they're going to have to pull off a Gore 2000 with a full delivery...
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J. J.
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« Reply #123 on: October 07, 2012, 07:18:06 AM »

Democrats would be wise to forget about NC and start paying attention to MI, PA and maybe even OR...

If Democrats still want to win this, they're going to have to pull off a Gore 2000 with a full delivery...

NC, which was close in 2008, is probably lost.  It would be better to divert resources to OH, IA, CO and even VA.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #124 on: October 07, 2012, 04:01:11 PM »

NC voter registration, showed a net gain of D's over the last week of 7858.

There is now a net loss for the D's since 2008 of 80,224 in NC.

A couple points

1. Democrats are actually up in registration at this point compared to 2008. They made massive gains with in-person registration.

2. Those numbers are deeply misleading because there are almost 350,000 new voters registered in the state since 2008, only 20% of whom are white. That means a substantial number of African Americans, almost 40%, are registering as independents. Overall registration now is

71.7% White
22.3% Black

Compared with

74.9% White
21.6% Black
In 2008.

Furthermore, Democratic registration was at one point down more than 150,000, which implies Democrats have gained 90,000 votes on top of a net 250K non-white Independents. These registrants likely replaced older white Democrats who would be most likely to defect.

North Carolina is a very hard state for Obama to reach 50% in, but he will easily get 47% and almost certainly hit 48%. The demographics of the electorate are much more favorable than in 2008, which is not true in a lot of other states, and his normative margin that Romney has to overturn, to use the UK parlance, is probably 1.6% rather than the .3% he won by in 2008.
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