The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Secretary Polnut]

I suppose the upside for Romney being that a MORE Democratic electorate in VA would spell doom for him...

[J. J.]

I suppose the upside for Romney being that a MORE Democratic electorate in VA would spell doom for him...

Not necessarily doom either way for either candidate.  I would note this look like a more Republican electorate and was noting the problems for Romney in IA, prior to the numbers closing.

And, as an example, the NC numbers are closing.

[SirMuxALot]

Blowing up the "19% of Ohioans have already voted" poll finding:

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/14/watch-out-for-phony-early-vote-numbers-in-ohio/

[Cliffy]

Blowing up the "19% of Ohioans have already voted" poll finding:

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/14/watch-out-for-phony-early-vote-numbers-in-ohio/

This would make the third serious point that says PPP is not a credible pollster anymore.

1. They consistently skew the most to Obama in their results
2. Akin leading by 1 after his comments, completely a political play to keep him in
3. The SOS release shows 3% early voting, yet they're pushing propaganda that there's 20% (along with marist) early voting.  Neither should be considered credible anymore

Kos Kids/Union goon poll is junk....  anyone referencing them should be laughed at. 

[Lіef]

oh cool, more pollster conspiracy theories, that's just what this forum needs

[Secretary Polnut]

I think I need to stress again how much I hate the month before an election...

[J. J.]

The has been a trend, in some states for Democrats to vote toward the beginning of the absentee period; it is more pronounced in other states (NC, IA).

[SirMuxALot]

oh cool, more pollster conspiracy theories, that's just what this forum needs

Right, so now it's a conspiracy theory to point out that PPP gets 19% of OH has already voted, but the OH SoS says about 5-6% have?  Just because I point out PPP got a bad result doesn't mean I think it's intentional or conspiratorial.

Oh right, the OH SoS is that evil Republican Husted.  He's to be trusted less than a pollster.

One of us is pushing a conspiracy theory here, but it isn't me...

[J. J.]

oh cool, more pollster conspiracy theories, that's just what this forum needs

Right, so now it's a conspiracy theory to point out that PPP gets 19% of OH has already voted, but the OH SoS says about 5-6% have?  Just because I point out PPP got a bad result doesn't mean I think it's intentional or conspiratorial.

Oh right, the OH SoS is that evil Republican Husted.  He's to be trusted less than a pollster.

One of us is pushing a conspiracy theory here, but it isn't me...

Well, in all honesty, they could have mailed them in and they have not yet been delivered or recorded as having arrived. 

[Cliffy]

oh cool, more pollster conspiracy theories, that's just what this forum needs

Really? Hardly a conspiracy theory.   I'm sorry PPP is not credible they made that choice this time around.  At some point 20% of Ohio may vote early but they haven't yet, we are talking about a major difference.  What a crazy claim to make. 

Keep grasping at straws.

[Cliffy]

Here's a breakdown, show's at best 5.5% early voting in Ohio.


http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/14/watch-out-for-phony-early-vote-numbers-in-ohio/

[Minnesota Mike]

Big week ahead for early voting. In person early voting begins in North Carolina (10-18) and Nevada (10-20). In both states more than half the electorate will vote early and both report turnout by party so we will get a read on enthusiasm. So far only Iowa has had a big enough turnout along with party registration stats that we can make some educated guesses on enthusiasm.

[Minnesota Mike]

Early Voting up date from Florida.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/14/3050032/in-politics-polls-are-important.html

The Republicans lead Democrats when it comes to absentee votes cast, about 126,000 to 114,000. In percentage terms, Republicans lead Democrats 44-40 percent.

Despite all the positive trends for them, Republicans are a little nervous. They’ve always out-organized and outvoted Democrats by absentee ballots — usually by big margins.

But no more.

Relative to this time in the 2008 election, Democrats trailed Republicans by 16 percentage points in voted absentee ballots. That lead has been cut to 4 percentage points this year.

[philly09]

So I guess Obama should head to FL and NC right after the debate.

[J. J.]

So I guess Obama should head to FL and NC right after the debate.

No, Ohio. 

[5280/East California]

Romney has a 25k absentee ballot head start in CO.

http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/11/analysis-romney-starts-with-25000-vote-head-start-in-colorado/#more-3902

[Gravis Marketing]

Romney has a 25k absentee ballot head start in CO.

http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/11/analysis-romney-starts-with-25000-vote-head-start-in-colorado/#more-3902

That link gave me a headache. I don't know what he is claiming or how he documents it. The graph is misleading, too.

[Lіef]

lol, cool bar graph, guy

[Cliffy]

From GMU updated 10/14, didn't see this posted, am I reading this correctly?

50k early votes

Party Reg 
Dem 27.4%
Rep 54.2%
None/Oth 18.4%
Age 
18-29 8.6%
30-44 10.9%
45-59 21.0%
60+ 59.5%
Race 
White 88.9%
Black 7.1%
Other 3.9%
Gender 
Female 56.2%
Male 43.0%
Unk. 0.8%

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[J. J.]

From GMU updated 10/14, didn't see this posted, am I reading this correctly?

50k early votes

Party Reg 
Dem 27.4%
Rep 54.2%
None/Oth 18.4%
Age 
18-29 8.6%
30-44 10.9%
45-59 21.0%
60+ 59.5%
Race 
White 88.9%
Black 7.1%
Other 3.9%
Gender 
Female 56.2%
Male 43.0%
Unk. 0.8%

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

NC?  Yes, but that is a bit misleading.  In 2008, R's had a 20 point lead.  Also keep an eye of applications.  They tend to be predictive.

[Secretary Polnut]

lol, cool bar graph, guy

That's an excel fail right there... lol

[Tender Branson]

Romney has a 25k absentee ballot head start in CO.

http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/11/analysis-romney-starts-with-25000-vote-head-start-in-colorado/#more-3902

Eh, no.

Romney doesn't start out with anything. Only more Republicans have REQUESTED mail ballots so far than Democrats.

Which is not unusual, given that in Colorado there are 60.000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. So, it means that Democrats have actually requested MORE ballots in percentage terms than Republicans.

And besides, we don't know how these people vote, so to say Romney has an advantage is simply false.

[bore]

lol, cool bar graph, guy

Only the lib dems can beat the republicans here!

[SirMuxALot]

So, it means that Democrats have actually requested MORE ballots in percentage terms than Republicans.

That would only be true if the absentee vote ends up being more than 41.7% of the total vote.  Is that at all likely?

[Gravis Marketing]

The Washington Post says things look good for Dems so far:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/15/why-the-early-vote-looks-good-for-democrats/