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| | |-+  The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread  (Read 32180 times)
Fmr. President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #200 on: October 14, 2012, 06:22:54 am »
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I suppose the upside for Romney being that a MORE Democratic electorate in VA would spell doom for him...
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« Reply #201 on: October 14, 2012, 11:23:00 am »
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I suppose the upside for Romney being that a MORE Democratic electorate in VA would spell doom for him...

Not necessarily doom either way for either candidate.  I would note this look like a more Republican electorate and was noting the problems for Romney in IA, prior to the numbers closing.

And, as an example, the NC numbers are closing.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2012, 11:24:57 am by J. J. »Logged

J. J.

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« Reply #202 on: October 14, 2012, 02:57:13 pm »
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Blowing up the "19% of Ohioans have already voted" poll finding:

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/14/watch-out-for-phony-early-vote-numbers-in-ohio/
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« Reply #203 on: October 14, 2012, 03:16:27 pm »
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Blowing up the "19% of Ohioans have already voted" poll finding:

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/14/watch-out-for-phony-early-vote-numbers-in-ohio/

This would make the third serious point that says PPP is not a credible pollster anymore.

1. They consistently skew the most to Obama in their results
2. Akin leading by 1 after his comments, completely a political play to keep him in
3. The SOS release shows 3% early voting, yet they're pushing propaganda that there's 20% (along with marist) early voting.  Neither should be considered credible anymore

Kos Kids/Union goon poll is junk....  anyone referencing them should be laughed at. 
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Lіef
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« Reply #204 on: October 14, 2012, 03:18:20 pm »
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oh cool, more pollster conspiracy theories, that's just what this forum needs
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Fmr. President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #205 on: October 14, 2012, 03:24:12 pm »
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I think I need to stress again how much I hate the month before an election...
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« Reply #206 on: October 14, 2012, 03:29:37 pm »
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The has been a trend, in some states for Democrats to vote toward the beginning of the absentee period; it is more pronounced in other states (NC, IA).
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J. J.

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SirMuxALot
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« Reply #207 on: October 14, 2012, 03:30:49 pm »
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oh cool, more pollster conspiracy theories, that's just what this forum needs

Right, so now it's a conspiracy theory to point out that PPP gets 19% of OH has already voted, but the OH SoS says about 5-6% have?  Just because I point out PPP got a bad result doesn't mean I think it's intentional or conspiratorial.

Oh right, the OH SoS is that evil Republican Husted.  He's to be trusted less than a pollster.

One of us is pushing a conspiracy theory here, but it isn't me...
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J. J.
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« Reply #208 on: October 14, 2012, 03:37:20 pm »
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oh cool, more pollster conspiracy theories, that's just what this forum needs

Right, so now it's a conspiracy theory to point out that PPP gets 19% of OH has already voted, but the OH SoS says about 5-6% have?  Just because I point out PPP got a bad result doesn't mean I think it's intentional or conspiratorial.

Oh right, the OH SoS is that evil Republican Husted.  He's to be trusted less than a pollster.

One of us is pushing a conspiracy theory here, but it isn't me...

Well, in all honesty, they could have mailed them in and they have not yet been delivered or recorded as having arrived. 
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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« Reply #209 on: October 14, 2012, 03:42:34 pm »
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oh cool, more pollster conspiracy theories, that's just what this forum needs

Really? Hardly a conspiracy theory.   I'm sorry PPP is not credible they made that choice this time around.  At some point 20% of Ohio may vote early but they haven't yet, we are talking about a major difference.  What a crazy claim to make. 

Keep grasping at straws.
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« Reply #210 on: October 14, 2012, 03:46:39 pm »
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Here's a breakdown, show's at best 5.5% early voting in Ohio.


http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/14/watch-out-for-phony-early-vote-numbers-in-ohio/
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #211 on: October 14, 2012, 08:38:00 pm »
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Big week ahead for early voting. In person early voting begins in North Carolina (10-18) and Nevada (10-20). In both states more than half the electorate will vote early and both report turnout by party so we will get a read on enthusiasm. So far only Iowa has had a big enough turnout along with party registration stats that we can make some educated guesses on enthusiasm.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #212 on: October 14, 2012, 08:44:35 pm »
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Early Voting up date from Florida.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/14/3050032/in-politics-polls-are-important.html
Quote
The Republicans lead Democrats when it comes to absentee votes cast, about 126,000 to 114,000. In percentage terms, Republicans lead Democrats 44-40 percent.

Quote
Despite all the positive trends for them, Republicans are a little nervous. They’ve always out-organized and outvoted Democrats by absentee ballots — usually by big margins.

But no more.

Relative to this time in the 2008 election, Democrats trailed Republicans by 16 percentage points in voted absentee ballots. That lead has been cut to 4 percentage points this year.

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« Reply #213 on: October 14, 2012, 08:48:50 pm »
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So I guess Obama should head to FL and NC right after the debate.
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« Reply #214 on: October 14, 2012, 09:20:28 pm »
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So I guess Obama should head to FL and NC right after the debate.

No, Ohio. 
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J. J.

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- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #215 on: October 14, 2012, 10:48:30 pm »
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Romney has a 25k absentee ballot head start in CO.

http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/11/analysis-romney-starts-with-25000-vote-head-start-in-colorado/#more-3902

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« Reply #216 on: October 14, 2012, 10:54:20 pm »
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That link gave me a headache. I don't know what he is claiming or how he documents it. The graph is misleading, too.
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« Reply #217 on: October 14, 2012, 10:57:00 pm »
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lol, cool bar graph, guy

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« Reply #218 on: October 14, 2012, 11:08:57 pm »
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From GMU updated 10/14, didn't see this posted, am I reading this correctly?

50k early votes

Party Reg 
Dem 27.4%
Rep 54.2%
None/Oth 18.4%
Age 
18-29 8.6%
30-44 10.9%
45-59 21.0%
60+ 59.5%
Race 
White 88.9%
Black 7.1%
Other 3.9%
Gender 
Female 56.2%
Male 43.0%
Unk. 0.8%

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html
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J. J.
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« Reply #219 on: October 14, 2012, 11:20:52 pm »
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From GMU updated 10/14, didn't see this posted, am I reading this correctly?

50k early votes

Party Reg 
Dem 27.4%
Rep 54.2%
None/Oth 18.4%
Age 
18-29 8.6%
30-44 10.9%
45-59 21.0%
60+ 59.5%
Race 
White 88.9%
Black 7.1%
Other 3.9%
Gender 
Female 56.2%
Male 43.0%
Unk. 0.8%

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

NC?  Yes, but that is a bit misleading.  In 2008, R's had a 20 point lead.  Also keep an eye of applications.  They tend to be predictive.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Fmr. President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #220 on: October 14, 2012, 11:47:32 pm »
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lol, cool bar graph, guy



That's an excel fail right there... lol
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« Reply #221 on: October 15, 2012, 12:36:52 am »
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Eh, no.

Romney doesn't start out with anything. Only more Republicans have REQUESTED mail ballots so far than Democrats.

Which is not unusual, given that in Colorado there are 60.000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. So, it means that Democrats have actually requested MORE ballots in percentage terms than Republicans.

And besides, we don't know how these people vote, so to say Romney has an advantage is simply false.
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Senator bore
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« Reply #222 on: October 15, 2012, 08:02:46 am »
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lol, cool bar graph, guy



Only the lib dems can beat the republicans here!
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SirMuxALot
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« Reply #223 on: October 15, 2012, 12:39:22 pm »
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So, it means that Democrats have actually requested MORE ballots in percentage terms than Republicans.

That would only be true if the absentee vote ends up being more than 41.7% of the total vote.  Is that at all likely?
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« Reply #224 on: October 15, 2012, 01:01:17 pm »
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The Washington Post says things look good for Dems so far:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/15/why-the-early-vote-looks-good-for-democrats/
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