The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Ljube]

Iowa polls are meaningless now.

Why, did the hurricane hit Iowa?

Too many people voting early = impossible to poll properly.

[krazen1211]

Obama soars among early voters in Iowa, 64/35.

Excellent news!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-5-in-wisconsin-and-iowa.html

Hahaha! A poll can claim such, but the EV sample is over 32% Republican registered voters.

Sounds like Obama is soaring among Indies!

Mathematically possible, of course. McCain got 36% of the Iowa early vote when it consisted of many more Democrats and many fewer Republicans.

Alternatively, the poll is junk, as it claims that Romney is getting 40% of Independents.

[J. J.]

Obama soars among early voters in Iowa, 64/35.

Excellent news!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-5-in-wisconsin-and-iowa.html

Hahaha! A poll can claim such, but the EV sample is over 32% Republican registered voters.

Sounds like Obama is soaring among Indies!

He'd have to getting something along the lines 80% of the independents for that number to be accurate. 

[J. J.]

Iowa

R: 159866
D: 219778
I: 117485

R: 32.2%
D: 44.2%
I: 23.6%

That was yesterday.  Today:

Dem    43.7%
Rep    32.2%
None/Oth    24.1%
   

The final gap in 2008 was 18 points.  It is now 11.5.

[krazen1211]

Clark County Day 11

D: 13014
R: 10097
I: 6029

Total: 29140

Yep, the GOP is closing well in Nevada with its superior efforts at getting its registered voters to vote.

D: 234578 (44.3%)
R: 199077 (37.6%)
I: 96256 (18.2%)

[Lief 🗽]

Axelrod on Morning Joe today said they're running 15-18% ahead with Iowa early voters and expect 40-45% of the electorate to vote before election day.

[Cliffy]

looking good in FL



http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/democrats-face-early-vote-hurdle-fla

[krazen1211]

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/30/file_attachments/171833/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B30%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 40% of the vote is in.


D: 343721 (35.5%)
R: 370982 (38.4%)
I: 241294 (25.0%)

R: 439269 (38.2%)
D: 404870 (35.2%)
I: 295112 (25.6%)


R's gaining in relative and absolute terms.

It's a glorious day!

[5280]

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/30/file_attachments/171833/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B30%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 40% of the vote is in.


D: 343721 (35.5%)
R: 370982 (38.4%)
I: 241294 (25.0%)

R: 439269 (38.2%)
D: 404870 (35.2%)
I: 295112 (25.6%)


R's gaining in relative and absolute terms.

It's a glorious day!

Good news, hope it stays like this or the gap widens until election night.

Secondly, why is Denver and Boulder county high on Democrat turnout? Where is the GOP in thouse counties?

[Seriously?]

Obama soars among early voters in Iowa, 64/35.

Excellent news!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-5-in-wisconsin-and-iowa.html

It's very dangerous to put a ton of stock in a statistically insignificant subsample like that. What's the MOE on the subgroup? I doubt given the actual numbers in Iowa (D/R/I) breakdown that J.J. has posted here (44/32/24) that those 64/35 numbers are accurate. If so, only 3% of those I votes are going Romney.

[Tender Branson]

CO looks ok so far for Obama.

Remember that the final early vote in 2010 was R+6 and Bennet won by 1.

In 2008, the final early vote was D+1.5 and Obama won by 9.

Currently it's R+3 in the early vote. Which would point to a Obama 3-4% winning margin.

Remember that CO Indies are an Obama-leaning folk.

[krazen1211]

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/30/file_attachments/171833/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B30%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 40% of the vote is in.


D: 343721 (35.5%)
R: 370982 (38.4%)
I: 241294 (25.0%)

R: 439269 (38.2%)
D: 404870 (35.2%)
I: 295112 (25.6%)


R's gaining in relative and absolute terms.

It's a glorious day!

Good news, hope it stays like this or the gap widens until election night.

Secondly, why is Denver and Boulder county high on Democrat turnout? Where is the GOP in thouse counties?

Well, those counties have excess Democrats. Both parties are turning out the same there. Thankfully turnout is lagging on those 2 counties.

[5280]

CO looks ok so far for Obama Romney.

Remember that the final early vote in 2010 was R+6 and Bennet won by 1. Secondly, 2010 is not 2012, expect different results.

In 2008, the final early vote was D+1.5 and Obama won by 9. Democrat enthusiasm was higher in 2008 than 2012.
Currently it's R+3 in the early vote. Which would point to a Obama Romney 3-4% winning margin.

Remember that CO Indies are an Obama-leaning folk in 2008. In 2012, undecideds will break for the challenger.

Fixed

[Tender Branson]

Oregon ballot returns so far point to a similar overall turnout like in 2008.

Registered Democrats and Republicans are returning ballots in about equal % numbers, just like in 2008.

In 2008, 89% of registered OR Dems returned a ballot and 88% of Republicans.

As of yesterday, both Dems and Republicans have a 35% return rate.

Of course there are much more registered Dems in OR than Republicans (40% vs. 31%).

[Tender Branson]

The OR numbers point to a roughly 10% Obama winning margin on Tuesday.

40% D (Obama 90%) -> 36%
31% R (Obama 10%) -> 3%
29% I (Obama 55%) -> 16% (The latest SurveyUSA and Hoffman polls have Obama ahead by an average of 10% among OR Indies).

55% Obama, 45% Romney

[Vosem]

CO looks ok so far for Obama.

Remember that the final early vote in 2010 was R+6 and Bennet won by 1.

In 2008, the final early vote was D+1.5 and Obama won by 9.

Currently it's R+3 in the early vote. Which would point to a Obama 3-4% winning margin.

Remember that CO Indies are an Obama-leaning folk.

I'd just made my own thread before noticing this...why do Colorado Republicans vote early so much more than their counterparts in other states?

[krazen1211]

CO looks ok so far for Obama.

Remember that the final early vote in 2010 was R+6 and Bennet won by 1.

In 2008, the final early vote was D+1.5 and Obama won by 9.

Currently it's R+3 in the early vote. Which would point to a Obama 3-4% winning margin.

Remember that CO Indies are an Obama-leaning folk.

I'd just made my own thread before noticing this...why do Colorado Republicans vote early so much more than their counterparts in other states?

They don't. Republicans are outperforming voter registration in Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina.

Colorado is such that it has more Republicans than Democrats and they are soaring to the polls this time.

[Vosem]

CO looks ok so far for Obama.

Remember that the final early vote in 2010 was R+6 and Bennet won by 1.

In 2008, the final early vote was D+1.5 and Obama won by 9.

Currently it's R+3 in the early vote. Which would point to a Obama 3-4% winning margin.

Remember that CO Indies are an Obama-leaning folk.

I'd just made my own thread before noticing this...why do Colorado Republicans vote early so much more than their counterparts in other states?

They don't. Republicans are outperforming voter registration in Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina.

Colorado is such that it has more Republicans than Democrats and they are soaring to the polls this time.

Tender Branson is saying in 2010, the early voting was R+6 but ultimately Bennet won by 1%...nobody's disputing right now it's R+3, which seems to imply a narrow Obama victory. I'm listening very intently, krazen.

[krazen1211]

CO looks ok so far for Obama.

Remember that the final early vote in 2010 was R+6 and Bennet won by 1.

In 2008, the final early vote was D+1.5 and Obama won by 9.

Currently it's R+3 in the early vote. Which would point to a Obama 3-4% winning margin.

Remember that CO Indies are an Obama-leaning folk.

I'd just made my own thread before noticing this...why do Colorado Republicans vote early so much more than their counterparts in other states?

They don't. Republicans are outperforming voter registration in Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina.

Colorado is such that it has more Republicans than Democrats and they are soaring to the polls this time.

Tender Branson is saying in 2010, the early voting was R+6 but ultimately Bennet won by 1%...nobody's disputing right now it's R+3, which seems to imply a narrow Obama victory. I'm listening very intently, krazen.

Of course. He and you both presume that independents will vote the same in this election as they did in those. Why would that be so?

In that same 2010 election Republicans won 3 statewide offices and the aggregate house vote  by 5 points. Of course they had better candidates in those races than Mr. Buck.

[Vosem]

CO looks ok so far for Obama.

Remember that the final early vote in 2010 was R+6 and Bennet won by 1.

In 2008, the final early vote was D+1.5 and Obama won by 9.

Currently it's R+3 in the early vote. Which would point to a Obama 3-4% winning margin.

Remember that CO Indies are an Obama-leaning folk.

I'd just made my own thread before noticing this...why do Colorado Republicans vote early so much more than their counterparts in other states?

They don't. Republicans are outperforming voter registration in Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina.

Colorado is such that it has more Republicans than Democrats and they are soaring to the polls this time.

Tender Branson is saying in 2010, the early voting was R+6 but ultimately Bennet won by 1%...nobody's disputing right now it's R+3, which seems to imply a narrow Obama victory. I'm listening very intently, krazen.

Of course. He and you both presume that independents will vote the same in this election as they did in those. Why would that be so?

In that same 2010 election Republicans won 3 statewide offices and the aggregate house vote  by 5 points. Of course they had better candidates in those races than Mr. Buck.

...the Secretary of State victory was just 51-49...but Suthers won by double-digits and Gessler won decisively despite a third party 'American Conservative' candidate getting 7% of the vote. Checking that made me feel better, but I'm still nowhere near confident.

[HST1948]

CO looks ok so far for Obama.

Remember that the final early vote in 2010 was R+6 and Bennet won by 1.

In 2008, the final early vote was D+1.5 and Obama won by 9.

Currently it's R+3 in the early vote. Which would point to a Obama 3-4% winning margin.

Remember that CO Indies are an Obama-leaning folk.

I'd just made my own thread before noticing this...why do Colorado Republicans vote early so much more than their counterparts in other states?

They don't. Republicans are outperforming voter registration in Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina.

Colorado is such that it has more Republicans than Democrats and they are soaring to the polls this time.

Tender Branson is saying in 2010, the early voting was R+6 but ultimately Bennet won by 1%...nobody's disputing right now it's R+3, which seems to imply a narrow Obama victory. I'm listening very intently, krazen.

Of course. He and you both presume that independents will vote the same in this election as they did in those. Why would that be so?

In that same 2010 election Republicans won 3 statewide offices and the aggregate house vote  by 5 points. Of course they had better candidates in those races than Mr. Buck.

I'll give you that Romney is an infinitely better candidate than Buck, I don't think anyone would deny that, but I also think that people underestimate the extent to which Obama is a better candidate than Bennett was. Lets not forget, Obama has actually won a state wide election in this state, where as in 2010, Bennett had not, and was appointed by an unpopular governor to fill a vacant senate seat. In addition, Bennett was the superintendent of the Denver public schools, not a well known figure in CO, until he was appointed to the senate, and really, until the 2010 campaign began. My point is, when we are comparing states like Nevada and Colorado which elected Democratic senators in 2010 because of flawed republican nominees, it is easy to over look the fact that the Democrats that won were extremely flawed as well, and Obama, like Romney, may to some extent be a better candidate. I will also concede that the 2012 early voting certainly makes Colorado look more favorable to the Republicans than it did 2008, but I also don't think that anyone can say with confidence that this race is anything more than a tossup right now.     

[pepper11]

Ohio Democrats who voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 530,813
Change from 2008: -181,275

Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 448,357
Change from 2008: +75,858

Republican swing from 2008: 257,133
Obama's 2008 margin of victory: 262,224

[Lief 🗽]

Ohio Democrats who voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 530,813
Change from 2008: -181,275

Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 448,357
Change from 2008: +75,858

Republican swing from 2008: 257,133
Obama's 2008 margin of victory: 262,224

Come on dude, I explained this a few pages ago. Those numbers are meaningless.

[Cliffy]

Ohio Democrats who voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 530,813
Change from 2008: -181,275

Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 448,357
Change from 2008: +75,858

Republican swing from 2008: 257,133
Obama's 2008 margin of victory: 262,224

This is what Adrian Gray's tweeting.  Looking really solid for Romney.  Early voting is strong for GOP this time.  There is nothing to suggest that D+8> turnout is going to happen.

[J. J.]

Ohio Democrats who voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 530,813
Change from 2008: -181,275

Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 448,357
Change from 2008: +75,858

Republican swing from 2008: 257,133
Obama's 2008 margin of victory: 262,224

Come on dude, I explained this a few pages ago. Those numbers are meaningless.

They are not meaningless, though not the most solid indicator, either.