The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[J. J.]

Krazen, what was the racial make-up of the absentee votes cast in 2008?  The black population is about 21%, so it is underrepresented so far.

[J. J.]

Krazen, what was the racial make-up of the absentee votes cast in 2008?  The black population is about 21%, so it is underrepresented so far.

It's both absentee and early voting.


2008   2004
Party
Dem
51.4%   48.6%
Rep
30.2%   37.4%
None
18.5%   14.1%

Age
18-29
14.9%   
30-44
23.5%   
45-64
40.2%   
65+
21.4%   

Race
White
69.2%   
Black
26.5%   
Other
4.3%   

Thank you.

So far, those numbers do not look good for Obama.  The key phrase is, "so far."

[J. J.]

WOW ! 300 ballots returned ! Out of 4.500.000 ! Resultz not looking good for Obama ! Democrats have only 4% advantage so far !

It''s an early indication, which is why the key words are "so far."  It's not great, but it is something to watch, intensity. 

[J. J.]

Cool Link to keep track of North Carolina Early Voting (with graphs and maps)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

And FWIW

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http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Thanks for the link.  Krazen's voter numbers show that absentee/early voting was Democratic in 2004 and 2008

It's both absentee and early voting.


2008             2004
Party
Dem
51.4%   48.6%
Rep
30.2%   37.4%
None
18.5%   14.1%

Age
18-29
14.9%   
30-44
23.5%   
45-64
40.2%   
65+
21.4%   

Race
White
69.2%   
Black
26.5%   
Other
4.3%   

The source is here:  http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

If this this continues, NC could be lost to Obama.

[J. J.]

You are confusing early mail-in ballots (which were a small number, that voted GOP+20) and "later" early and absentee voting (which was ca. 2.5 Million voters, that voted Obama+21).

You have to compare these early numbers now with the GOP+20 number from 2008, as Prof. Michael McDonald notes.

In terms of NC ballot requests the numbers are:

Party Reg    
Dem    26.7%
Rep    52.8%
None/Oth    20.5%

They have about 10% back with about 50/32 R/D

[J. J.]

You are confusing early mail-in ballots (which were a small number, that voted GOP+20) and "later" early and absentee voting (which was ca. 2.5 Million voters, that voted Obama+21).

You have to compare these early numbers now with the GOP+20 number from 2008, as Prof. Michael McDonald notes.

In terms of NC ballot requests the numbers are:

Party Reg    
Dem    26.7%
Rep    52.8%
None/Oth    20.5%

They have about 10% back with about 50/32 R/D

It was the same in 2008: Of all early voters, just 10% were mail-in ballots (those were strongly GOP back then too, says Prof. McDonald). But of the 90% who later voted in person, the overwhelming majority was DEM. These numbers will dramatically change over the next month in favor of Democrats.

It wasR +20 in 2008, from what you posted.  This is now running R +25.  Now, obviously, that can change.

[J. J.]

You are confusing early mail-in ballots (which were a small number, that voted GOP+20) and "later" early and absentee voting (which was ca. 2.5 Million voters, that voted Obama+21).

You have to compare these early numbers now with the GOP+20 number from 2008, as Prof. Michael McDonald notes.

In terms of NC ballot requests the numbers are:

Party Reg    
Dem    26.7%
Rep    52.8%
None/Oth    20.5%

They have about 10% back with about 50/32 R/D

It was the same in 2008: Of all early voters, just 10% were mail-in ballots (those were strongly GOP back then too, says Prof. McDonald). But of the 90% who later voted in person, the overwhelming majority was DEM. These numbers will dramatically change over the next month in favor of Democrats.

Those 10%, according to you, were +20 Republican.  So far, these are +25.

[J. J.]

J.J., why are you posting this twice ?

And why are you getting giddy with excitement over a 5-point gain for Republicans among 70.000 mail-in ballot requests, out of 2.800.000 expected early votes, that will swing in massive numbers to Obama once early in-person voting starts ?

I'm looking at trends to compare with 2008, as a measure of enthusiasm.  So far, in what was a close state, the numbers seem better.

[J. J.]

Iowa

Returned- 13.812

Dem- 64%
Rep- 19%
Other- 17%

Requested- 203,081

Dem- 63%
Rep- 15%
Other 22%

Which was also high in 2008.  I'm looking for the difference, positive or negative, over 2008.

[J. J.]

According to the US Elections Project, North Carolina stands like this:

10,596 absentee ballots banked

Dem: 30.9%
GOP: 50.2%
Ind: 19.0%

Don't remember what the absentee ballots looked like in 2008 out of North Carolina, but I think they were also around 20% in favor of the GOP, so the Dems are keeping pace here

Those are the ones returned so far and that number has been creeping up.  The applications, are running at about a 26% increase.  I'll add the words, so far.

[J. J.]

NC Requested Ballots:

Dem    26,707    26.2%
Rep    54,329    53.3%
None/Oth    20,958    20.5%
Total    101,994    

NC Returned Ballots:

Party Reg    
Dem    29.6%
Rep    51.5%
None/Oth    18.8%

In 2008, it was about a 20 point gap.  So far, the Republican ballots are running at least  slightly higher by either measure.  Both numbers have been equal or better for the past week.

[J. J.]

New SurveyUSA vote breakdown for NC:

Mail-in voters (7%): 58-39 Romney
Early in person voters (43%): 59-39 Obama
Election Day voters (48%): 53-41 Romney

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d3014bce-c607-464f-b452-de331971667d

The mail in advantage (R+20)  is what we currently see in the returns. Once the early in person voting starts Obama will get a huge boost and then Romney wins the election day voters. All in all, we'll only see on Nov. 7 who won the state.

When does early voting start?

As of yesterday, black turnout is 8.2%.

The current numbers are R +23 (well 22.9) in votes cast, with absentee requests at R +27, both as of yesterday.

[J. J.]

Today's NC numbers:

Party Reg Ballot Requests
Dem 28,559 26.3%
Rep 57,516 53.0%
None/Oth 22,364 20.6%
Total 108,439


Actual votes (about 0.5% of 2008 numbers)

Party Reg 
Dem 28.8%
Rep 52.6%
None/Oth 18.6%
Age 
18-29 7.8%
30-44 10.4%
45-59 20.0%
60+ 61.7%
Race 
White 88.3%
Black 7.8%
Other/None 3.9%
Gender 
Female 55.9%
Male 43.4%
Unknown 0.7%

Requests closed a bit.  Actual ballots case increased a bit.  I'd guess that a batch of absentee ballots came in.

[J. J.]

I think it's obvious that NC is in the Romney column.

Erm, are you on crack?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html#polls

We're looking at actual numbers, so far at any rate.  Republicans are performing better than in 2008, at least in NC.

[J. J.]

Hahaha, Politico is really on crack.

He thinks NC is "in the bag" for Romney with 1% of the vote in.

If he'd look at the SUSA poll that shows Romney ahead by 58-39 among the EARLIEST in-person voters, then he'd shoot not so fast.

As of now, that poll is not matching what is happening on the ground.  That can change, but there is also the possibility that in NC, SUSA is underweighing Republican turnout, by 3-6 points.  So far, there is no evidence of a national trend, but it is in NC.

[J. J.]

Don't read to much into the North Carolina numbers so far. The average age of voters so far is 63 with more people in their 70's and 80's having cast ballots than people in there 20's and 30's.
This is largely the nursing home vote.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

However, comparing the early numbers in 2012 with the early numbers in 2008, it appears to be a 4-6 point GOP increase.  That is basically a turnout factor.

[J. J.]

Here are IA's request from 2008

http://okhenderson.com/2008/10/30/2008-absentee-ballot-numbers-in-iowa/

So far, in terms of requests democrats are running about 6 points higher than 2008, and Republicans are running about 3 points below where they were in 2008. 

[J. J.]

So far, OH absentee numbers are showing an increase in R percentage of the vote, though D are still leading.

2008

R:  19%

D:  32%

2012:

R:  24%

D:  30%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

Because of how the count party affiliation, both these numbers are weak in terms of party ID.

[J. J.]

OH has a clearly greater portion of "Republicans" in the early voting in 2012 than in 2008 by about 7 points.  It is probably closer in terms of actual Romney supporter versus McCain supporters as well.  That might not be 7 points.

[J. J.]

The gap, in terms of ballot requests, in IA, is closing slightly.  R's are about two point below their 2008 return level.

[J. J.]

NC voter registration, showed a net gain of D's over the last week of 7858.

There is now a net loss for the D's since 2008 of 80,224 in NC.

[J. J.]

In terms of absentees, OH just got a little closer.  It was +13 D in 2008, and it is now +5, and narrowing.

NC is holding at +25-26, up 5-6 points in terms of absentee ballots.

I think NC is probably going to shift to lean Romney.

[J. J.]

In terms of absentees, OH just got a little closer.  It was +13 D in 2008, and it is now +5, and narrowing.

NC is holding at +25-26, up 5-6 points in terms of absentee ballots.

I think NC is probably going to shift to lean Romney.

Ohio is an apples to oranges comparison. Since there is no real party registration you can't really make a valid comparison to 2008.

I've made that point before, but the bulk of the Republicans are really Republicans; that closing, from 2008 is substantial.

[/quote]

As for NC we only have about 0.6% of the vote in, way to early to project anything.
[/quote]

No, the amount is equal to 0.6% of the turnout in 2008.  The absentees accounted for about 8% of the vote.  Further, comparing the requests from 2008 with today's numbers, there is still a 5-6 point gap.

We have a lower turnout and a significantly more GOP electorate in NC.  So far, the black voters have represented a smaller portion of the electorate.

[J. J.]

NC voter registration, showed a net gain of D's over the last week of 7858.

There is now a net loss for the D's since 2008 of 80,224 in NC.

Party Registration numbers in the South can be deceiving. How much of that 80,000 Dem decline is actually Obama voters? How much is Blue Dogs who voted for McCain? To me the more interesting numbers are the registered voters broken down by race. Total voter registration is up by about 244,000 and about 175,000 of that is minority voters.

And there, turnout seems to be substantially lower.

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We don't know that. The starting and election days don't match up exactly but we have actually have more ballots returned so far this cycle than on this date in 2008.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/date/1223190000/

And those have been substantially more Republican ballots.

[J. J.]

Returned Ballots

Oct 5 2008

19,464 Ballots returned

Reps 57.1%
Dems 27.9%

Oct 5 2012

25,263 Ballots returned

Reps 53.3%
Dems 28.2%

We have about 25% of the requested ballots returned; at this point in 2008, it was only 15% of the over all requests, and it was closer to the dead line for a request.