The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Tender Branson]

http://reed.edu/earlyvoting/calendar

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[Tender Branson]

North Carolina starts exactly in 3 weeks on September 6/7.

Which is right after Obama's speech at the DNC (which is also held in NC).

So, if Obama got a bounce from the DNC, it should show up in the early absentee voting numbers.

Even though Obama's NC absentee numbers from 2008 will be very hard to beat ...

51% of NC early votes were Dems, just 30% were Republicans.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

[Tender Branson]

Any forecasts on what percent of the total vote(s) will be done in September and October?

Check out my link above.

I guess Prof. McDonald will create a 2012 page soon.

[Tender Branson]

In 2008, 60% of all voters in NC voted before Election Day.

So, we should definitely track the partsian composition of these early voters there.

[Tender Branson]

The partisan makeup of the NC voters hasn't changed much in the past 4 years.

In August 2008, 45% were Dems and 33% GOPers.

Now, 43% are Dems and 31% GOPers.

[Tender Branson]

The share of Blacks among NC registered voters has increased from 21% to 22% in the past 4 years. The share of Hispanics has increased from 1% to 2%.

I don't know if we get daily updates, but this will be interesting to watch.

[Tender Branson]

Bump !

We should be able to track the daily absentee returns in NC, starting on Saturday or so. Maybe it takes a bit longer though for the ballots to be returned, so maybe some time next week.

But their site says:

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http://www.ncsbe.gov

[Tender Branson]

BUMP !

Absentee ballots are mailed out starting today in North Carolina.

[Tender Branson]

Prof. Michael McDonald now has his 2012 early voting site up:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Can any of the moderators sticky this please ?

[Tender Branson]

Stickified

You actually unstickied it, because someone else already stickied it ...

Can you sticky it again, please ?

[Tender Branson]

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-has-started_b_1864741.html

[Tender Branson]

Is there a party breakdown for the requests? or just the mailed-in ballots at the tail end of the process?

I think they only track the returned ballots by party breakdown.

At the end of the early voting period it was about 51% D and 30% R in 2008.

So, we have to wait until the early voting period is over this year to make comparisons, because all the days will have different breakdowns.

[Tender Branson]

I would have thought there are more requests for absentee ballots in NC ...

So far, after 1 week, there are only 30.000 requests and 200 returned ballots.

Similar to 2008 numbers though. But I guess the bulk of requests will only come after the debates.

[Tender Branson]

WOW ! 300 ballots returned ! Out of 4.500.000 ! Resultz not looking good for Obama ! Democrats have only 4% advantage so far !

[Tender Branson]

More mail ballots in now in NC, but still only 1.300 so far, out of about 40.000 requested so far.

Prof. McDonald notes:

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[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, Kentucky and Indiana have started absentee voting on Monday and Wisconsin will start tomorrow. Just in time, after Mitt's "victim" remark ...

[Tender Branson]

Cool Link to keep track of North Carolina Early Voting (with graphs and maps)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

And FWIW

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http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Thanks for the link.  Krazen's voter numbers show that absentee/early voting was Democratic in 2004 and 2008

It's both absentee and early voting.


2008             2004
Party
Dem
51.4%   48.6%
Rep
30.2%   37.4%
None
18.5%   14.1%

Age
18-29
14.9%   
30-44
23.5%   
45-64
40.2%   
65+
21.4%   

Race
White
69.2%   
Black
26.5%   
Other
4.3%   

The source is here:  http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

If this this continues, NC could be lost to Obama.

You are confusing early mail-in ballots (which were a small number, that voted GOP+20) and "later" early and absentee voting (which was ca. 2.5 Million voters, that voted Obama+21).

You have to compare these early numbers now with the GOP+20 number from 2008, as Prof. Michael McDonald notes.

[Tender Branson]

8 more states to start early voting today. WI started yesterday.

[Tender Branson]

Iowa absentee ballot requests so far:

Total: 153,542

Democratic: 103,200
No Party: 32,918
Republican: 17,282
Other: 142

No joke ...

http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2012/general/absenteestats.pdf

A state GOP official smiled at the numbers, saying: "The Democrats always vote early in huge numbers since at least 2004 ..."

[Tender Branson]

The numbers seem to be up for Democrats compared with 2008:

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[Tender Branson]

You are confusing early mail-in ballots (which were a small number, that voted GOP+20) and "later" early and absentee voting (which was ca. 2.5 Million voters, that voted Obama+21).

You have to compare these early numbers now with the GOP+20 number from 2008, as Prof. Michael McDonald notes.

In terms of NC ballot requests the numbers are:

Party Reg    
Dem    26.7%
Rep    52.8%
None/Oth    20.5%

They have about 10% back with about 50/32 R/D

It was the same in 2008: Of all early voters, just 10% were mail-in ballots (those were strongly GOP back then too, says Prof. McDonald). But of the 90% who later voted in person, the overwhelming majority was DEM. These numbers will dramatically change over the next month in favor of Democrats.

[Tender Branson]

After the first day of early voting in IA, Democratic turnout is huge in Polk, Iowa's biggest county:

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[Tender Branson]

Cuyahoga County (Ohio) ballot requests so far:

87,375 Democrats (54%)
38,515 Republicans (24%)
35,817 Indies (22%)

161,707 Total

2008: 69-30 Obama (overall result)

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/AbsenteeVoterbyCityReport11062012.pdf

[Tender Branson]

J.J., why are you posting this twice ?

And why are you getting giddy with excitement over a 5-point gain for Republicans among 70.000 mail-in ballot requests, out of 2.800.000 expected early votes, that will swing in massive numbers to Obama once early in-person voting starts ?

[Tender Branson]

New SurveyUSA vote breakdown for NC:

Mail-in voters (7%): 58-39 Romney
Early in person voters (43%): 59-39 Obama
Election Day voters (48%): 53-41 Romney

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d3014bce-c607-464f-b452-de331971667d

The mail in advantage (R+20)  is what we currently see in the returns. Once the early in person voting starts Obama will get a huge boost and then Romney wins the election day voters. All in all, we'll only see on Nov. 7 who won the state.