The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, I'm all for making voting as easy as possible, but this voting two months before the actual election day business is nonsense.

On another note, New York doesn't have in-person early voting? What a dumb state I moved to.

[Lief 🗽]

Of course R's are going to be doing better. Ohio doesn't have party registration. Your "registration" is based on which primary you voted in. The Republicans had a contested presidential primary in Ohio; the Democrats had nothing to vote for.

[Lief 🗽]

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http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/declareorchangeparty.aspx

Now, one explanation for those numbers is that all the polls are wrong and Democratic enthusiasm is down massively. Or the other is that there are fewer "registered Democrats" this year because all being a "registered Democrat" means in Ohio is that you voted in the last Democratic primary.

[Lief 🗽]

Pro-tip for Mike: don't waste your time arguing with J.J. You'd make more progress with a brick wall.

[Lief 🗽]

My favorite J.J. characteristic is his tendency to repeat the same thing over and over again, dismissing all evidence to the contrary and even ignoring and discounting the word of people who are actually experts on the thing he's talking about.

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.vpap.org/updates/show/1072


Virginia voting figures.

So far, everything is pointing to a more Republican electorate than 2008.

Of course the electorate is going to be more Republican. You don't need to look at those numbers to learn that. The question is whether or not it's going to me more Republican enough to reverse a 7% Obama lead.

[Lief 🗽]

oh cool, more pollster conspiracy theories, that's just what this forum needs

[Lief 🗽]

lol, cool bar graph, guy

[Lief 🗽]

Even if Romney is doing 2-3% better than in 2008, that's not nearly enough.

[Lief 🗽]

So in just one day more people voted in person than all the ballots that have been mailed in over the past few weeks? Hahah.

[Lief 🗽]

Michael McDonald's released another update on early voting (link).

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So far there's very little evidence from the early voting numbers that Republicans have some huge enthusiasm advantage.

[Lief 🗽]

Hopefully the NV SOS reports party registration numbers of the early voters.

[Lief 🗽]

I think I'll trust someone who actually knows what they're talking about when it comes to early vote statistics over someone who thinks the Bradley Effect was a thing that happened in 2008, thanks JJ.

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats have large advantages in Clark and Washoe country after the first day of early voting. Nevada may be off the table for Romney by next weekend.

[Lief 🗽]

He won by 13% in 2008. He can afford to do a lot worse and still win easily.

[Lief 🗽]

http://ralstonreports.com/blog/final-thoughts-first-day-early-voting-what-look-next#.UIR4v_k5y5I

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[Lief 🗽]

Republicans lost Washoe County again today, 2262 to 1830.

[Lief 🗽]

Okay, we have three states, IA (in terms of applications), NC, and NV, where, so far, R's are running a little bit ahead of 2008. 

Which, in an election like this, still has to be considered good news for Obama, no? I mean, he doesn't need 350, just 270. Or will there be so much smaller a gap on actual election day that this shift could be significant?

Yeah, exactly. It would be horrible, awful news for Romney (and shocking news for everyone else) if Republicans weren't running ahead of their 2008 numbers. But so far in Iowa and Nevada at least (it's hard to tell in Florida and Ohio) it doesn't look like it's by enough to overturn Obama's 2008 margins of victory.

[Lief 🗽]

Jon Ralston reports that early voting is up significantly over 2008 so far, 59k versus 49k. Already 7% of the 2008 turnout has voted, after just two days of early voting.

[Lief 🗽]

Here's an easy to read, day by day record of the NV early vote: http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2491

It looks like absentee ballots + two days of early vote has already resulted in 10% of 2008's turnout. That's crazy.

[Lief 🗽]

Very strong day for Democrats in North Carolina today, increasing their lead and increasing the black percentage above 30%. The D-R gap is currently 20.2%, compared to the final D+12.6% in 2008.

[Lief 🗽]

Nevada turnout so far:

Dem 48.6%
Rep 35.4%
Ind 15.9%

Poll data on how early voters have voted (ARG, a favorable poll for Romney):

Obama: 57%
Romney: 43%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/NV12.html

If Romney is only splitting Indys with Obama, he's doomed in Nevada.

Most polls show Obama tied or winning independents in Nevada, IIRC.

[Lief 🗽]

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.

Not by nearly enough for him to win the state.

[Lief 🗽]

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.

Not by nearly enough for him to win the state.

Like I said, it is flippable, but I still give it to Obama, at this point in time.  I would say Obama by 1-2 points.

How generous of you.

[Lief 🗽]

5-6 points is far from unlikely. Jon Ralston was talking about a possible Obama victory of that size just today.