A swing, in the UK sense of the word, of about 4.5 points would give Romney CO.
So what? That's not what the numbers from Colorado, that he was refering to, indicate.
I'm not certain what then he was talking about.
COLORADO: Early vote stands at 39%R, 36%D with about 20k vote lead for GOP. Dems led 2008 by 2% or 31k in 2008, GOP led by 16k in 2004.
Since this was a couple of posts above his comment, I'm strongly assuming this. (And the 5% meaning the change from D+2 to R+3.
The problem is that this is not a 5% swing in the sense he interpreted it to mean.