The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[krazen1211]

North Carolina is a state where the Democrats should feel confident in their voter registration. Same as Nevada, although there are many fewer Democrats in Clark County than October 2008 close of registration.

[krazen1211]

NC thus far.



Party Reg   
Dem.   42.6%
Rep.   39.8%
None/Oth   17.6%
Age   
18-29   7.5%
30-44   16.8%
45-59   20.0%
60+   55.7%
Race   
White   78.4%
Black   16.3%
Hispanic   0.0%
Other/None   5.3%

[krazen1211]

Krazen, what was the racial make-up of the absentee votes cast in 2008?  The black population is about 21%, so it is underrepresented so far.

It's both absentee and early voting.


2008   2004
Party
Dem
51.4%   48.6%
Rep
30.2%   37.4%
None
18.5%   14.1%

Age
18-29
14.9%   
30-44
23.5%   
45-64
40.2%   
65+
21.4%   

Race
White
69.2%   
Black
26.5%   
Other
4.3%   

[krazen1211]

http://www.vpap.org/updates/show/1072


Virginia voting figures.

[krazen1211]

http://vote.franklincountyohio.gov/absentee/absentee-district-counts.cfm




The 3rd congressional district composes of 62% of Franklin County's population but is greatly lagging in absentee ballot requests at only 54%.

[krazen1211]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20121016/NEWS09/310160032/1007/news05

Republican voters’ requests for ballots have eclipsed the Democrats for 10 straight days, significantly shrinking President Barack Obama’s advantage, state records show.

Iowa Democrats led in absentee ballots in 2010, but lost heavily in the general election. Currently, among active voters in Iowa, the GOP has a registration advantage of 11,000.

[krazen1211]

GOP keeps closing gap in early vote in Iowa. Down 50-30 now after being down 60-22 on Oct. 5 and 54-27 one week ago.




2010: 45D 38R

[krazen1211]

Even if Romney is doing 2-3% better than in 2008, that's not nearly enough.

A lot of Obama's strength was in these absentee votes and in early voting.  And we are not talking about intraparty swing.  It is just a more GOP electorate. 

IA is slightly better than it was in 2004, currently, but very slightly.

Iowa voter registration:

Dec 2008:
D: 708996
R: 598850
I: 727979

current:

D: 611284
R: 622176
I: 675171

[krazen1211]

IA R ballot applications is currently running 3.4 points ahead of 2008.

So Romney is screwed in Iowa? 3.4% isn't anywhere close to swing the state

Mo, it is a measure of enthusiasm since 2008.  In 2000, the R's came in ahead in absentee ballots, and lost the state.  In 2004, it was the D's, and they lost.

The 3.4 points is a change in the electorate.  If there was something similar with actual voters, it might mean that the polls there are too Democratic in terms of weighting.

There are some structural changes that might benefit the R's slightly as well.  100 voters can join and petition of an early voting site.

Iowa early voting 2004 and 2008.

http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2004/general/2004StatewideStats.pdf

http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2008/08StatReportStatewide.pdf

[krazen1211]

Even if Romney is doing 2-3% better than in 2008, that's not nearly enough.

A lot of Obama's strength was in these absentee votes and in early voting.  And we are not talking about intraparty swing.  It is just a more GOP electorate. 

IA is slightly better than it was in 2004, currently, but very slightly.

Yesterday:

50.3% D
29.8% R
19.9% I


Today:

49.5% D
30.3% R
20.2% I

[krazen1211]

Over at ACE in response to crazy marist IA early vote poll

You must be logged in to read this quote.

When polls ask if people voted early, I would imagine it includes those who plan to but haven't yet, etc.  You can't go by a running total because someone with a request in the mail will report themselves as voting early.

I would imagine not, because they asked that question separately.


http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/18/14542135-polls-obama-holds-his-lead-in-iowa-wisconsin?lite


Thirty-four percent of likely voters in the poll say they have already cast their ballots, and the president is winning those people, 67 percent to 32 percent.

Another 11 percent are planning to vote early, and he’s up among that group, 55 percent to 39 percent.




Of course, ballots requested as of Oct 16 totaled 29% of the vote.

[krazen1211]

Iowa absentees

Yesterday:

49.5% D
30.3% R
20.2% I


Today:

48.8% D
30.5% R
20.5% I

[krazen1211]

Iowa absentees

Yesterday:

49.5% D
30.3% R
20.2% I


Today:

48.8% D
30.5% R
20.5% I

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

That's true. Thankfully, the Republicans have more voters than the Democrats and have turned out at higher rates in the past 2 presidential elections.

[krazen1211]

Ohio updated this morning, 11.1% early voting in.  Looks like PPP, Marist and SUSA are still not credible been plenty of time now for the results to catch up...... 

Keep lauding those polls

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Last week Obama had 74% of the early vote. Now it's 66%. People must be changing their early votes, lol.

[krazen1211]

Michael McDonald's released another update on early voting (link).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So far there's very little evidence from the early voting numbers that Republicans have some huge enthusiasm advantage.

He's using the Marist crap, not the actual ballots. 

The "one stop" registration and mail registrations not processed was just under a 40,000 vote net gain in 2008.  The R's had a 70,000 + gain.  On election day, there will be 30-40 K more Republicans than there were in 2008.  Obama's MOV was just under 14,200.

NC is gone for Obama.

If Early voting in 2008 was 60-38, this fellow kindly trashed these junk polls showing early voting to be 67-33 this time around.

[krazen1211]

Ohio updated this morning, 11.1% early voting in.  Looks like PPP, Marist and SUSA are still not credible been plenty of time now for the results to catch up...... 

Keep lauding those polls

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Last week Obama had 74% of the early vote. Now it's 66%. People must be changing their early votes, lol.

I hope you don't actually think that's how polls work.

Are all counties reporting totals?

Not all, no, but the big ones are. A cursory glance of the big counties shows that they aren't even close to 19%, let alone 21% as of 7 days ago.

[krazen1211]

I terms of actual voters, the R/D gap is hugely important.  Most people register for a party based on their ideology.  Someone who just loves Obama doesn't say, "Hey, I think I'll register Republican."

Also, so far, the racial divide in NC is up by about 2%, but the party affiliation number is up by about the same amount.  Further, the electorate is skewing older.  

NC is gone.

Blacks have added about 120k voters, and other minorities 100k, over the past 4 years. In the meanwhile they lost 180k or so white Democrats.


The dropoff probably mixes olds and college kids in the triangle.

[krazen1211]

Iowa Friday:

R: 92072
D: 147234
I: 61833


R: 30.5%
D: 48.8%
I: 20.5%



Iowa today:

R: 99680
D: 155089
I: 67553

R: 30.9%
D: 48.1%
I: 20.9%

[krazen1211]

NC is now R +0.3 points over 2008 final.  D's are now running -9.4 points where they were at this point in time in 2008.  Sorry if some of you find that "fuzziness."   

No need to apologize, but I don't understand why you'd use one point of time as a reference for the Dems but a different point in time for the Republicans. What's the rationale for that? How are the R's doing compared to this point in time in 2008? How are the D's doing compared to the 2008 final?

That is how they were doing at this point in time.  I doubled checked and at 10/20/08 vhere were the NC numbers:

D 56.3%
R 27.2%

D + 29.1

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/date/1224486000/

Yesterday

D 51.2
R 30.2

D +21.0

It should be an 8.1 point closing (did my math wrong).  That is significant, especially when the D's carried the state by < 0.6. 

This is the time when you get much of the D turnout.  In 2008, R's ended up with 30.2 and D's with 51.4.  http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

This is very bad news for Obama in NC. 

Yep. Voting among 18-29 is down from 11.1% to 9.9%. Those are the only whites that Obama wins any big share of and they are down.

[krazen1211]

GOP charges out of the gate in Colorado.


http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/19/file_attachments/168826/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B19%2B2012.pdf



D: 8516
R: 10884
I: 5727


D: 33.6%
R: 42.9%
I: 23.6%

[krazen1211]

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/AbsenteeVoterbyCityReport11062012.pdf


Cuyahoga absentee + early voting is totaling 13% of registration and 16% of 2008 vote.

[krazen1211]

GOP charges out of the gate in Colorado.


http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/19/file_attachments/168826/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B19%2B2012.pdf



D: 8516
R: 10884
I: 5727


D: 33.6%
R: 42.9%
I: 23.6%

We'd still need a comparison with 2008.  It is currently R +7.

D+2 for the entire EV period.

[krazen1211]

Today NBC moved NV to lean Obama from tossup. Chuck Todd and Jon Ralston talked about how the early vote, demographics and the Las Vegas area unions are taking NV out of play for Romney. But Romney is visiting Reno today I think, so they havent given up yet.

Romney can't be seen to be giving up. His strategy now is 100% confidence to generate momentum, because if the election were held today, he'd lose the EV even if he won the PV.

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.  NV is on my "possible" list, but I credited it for Obama, because the polling tended to be off in 2008.  It is possible that Romney could take it. 

Registration in Nevada points to a larger victory than that.

[krazen1211]

GOP charges out of the gate in Colorado.


http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/19/file_attachments/168826/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B19%2B2012.pdf



D: 8516
R: 10884
I: 5727


D: 33.6%
R: 42.9%
I: 23.6%

We'd still need a comparison with 2008.  It is currently R +7.

D+2 for the entire EV period.

This extrapolates to about an expected tie in Colorado on election day. Obama won CO by 9 points overall.

You have to factor in the fact that Republicans have more voters than Democrats in Colorado ready to vote on election day.

[krazen1211]

North Carolina:


D: 51.2%
R: 30.2%
I: 18.4%



2008:

D: 56.44%
R: 27.0%
I: 16.5%



Now we know why Obama is silently pulling out of North Carolina. He has collapsed among whites. Back then 27% of the votes were cast by white Democrats and that's down to 20%.