The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Minnesota Mike]

And the first votes are cast.

North Carolina returned Military Absentees.

1 White Republican
1 Unaffiliated African American

http://ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_counts_county.csv

[Minnesota Mike]

Cool Link to keep track of North Carolina Early Voting (with graphs and maps)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

And FWIW

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http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[Minnesota Mike]

Of course R's are going to be doing better. Ohio doesn't have party registration. Your "registration" is based on which primary you voted in. The Republicans had a contested presidential primary in Ohio; the Democrats had nothing to vote for.

Don't ruin it for them, they are having so much fun.

[Minnesota Mike]

Iowa

Returned- 13.812

Dem- 64%
Rep- 19%
Other- 17%

Requested- 203,081

Dem- 63%
Rep- 15%
Other 22%

[Minnesota Mike]

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http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/declareorchangeparty.aspx

Now, one explanation for those numbers is that all the polls are wrong and Democratic enthusiasm is down massively. Or the other is that there are fewer "registered Democrats" this year because all being a "registered Democrat" means in Ohio is that you voted in the last Democratic primary.

Yeah, but if you're a democrat in 2008, and you dont vote in 2010, that still means youre registered as a democrat in 2012 by that standard.  They don't just reregister your party as an unaffiliated voter.  You have to request an absentee ballot to get one, which means that democrats still aren't requesting ballots at the rate republicans are.  That means enthusiasm is down.

I think there are a lot of people in Ohio like me, I plan on voting straight Democratic in November but since there were no competitive races on the Democratic side where I live I voted in the Republican Primary.

BTW wasn't Ohio one of Rush's Operation Chaos states in 2008? Lots of ditto heads voted for Hillary and were officially classified as Democrats.

[Minnesota Mike]

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http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/declareorchangeparty.aspx

Now, one explanation for those numbers is that all the polls are wrong and Democratic enthusiasm is down massively. Or the other is that there are fewer "registered Democrats" this year because all being a "registered Democrat" means in Ohio is that you voted in the last Democratic primary.

Yeah, but if you're a democrat in 2008, and you dont vote in 2010, that still means youre registered as a democrat in 2012 by that standard.  They don't just reregister your party as an unaffiliated voter.  You have to request an absentee ballot to get one, which means that democrats still aren't requesting ballots at the rate republicans are.  That means enthusiasm is down.

No.  It doesn't reach back to 2008.  Ohio party affiliation is calculated going back 2 years, so 2010 and 2012 primaries count, 2008 does not.

"(3) That the person is not affiliated with or is not a member of the political party whose ballot the person desires to vote. Such party affiliation shall be determined by examining the elector’s voting record for the current year and the immediately preceding two calendar years as shown on the voter’s registration card, using the standards of affiliation specified in the seventh paragraph of section 3513.05 of the Revised Code."

http://codes.ohio.gov/orc/3513.19

If you didn't vote in the D primary in 2010 or 2012, you aren't considered a Democrat in Ohio.

Well Done

[Minnesota Mike]

Don't read to much into the North Carolina numbers so far. The average age of voters so far is 63 with more people in their 70's and 80's having cast ballots than people in there 20's and 30's.
This is largely the nursing home vote.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

[Minnesota Mike]

In terms of absentees, OH just got a little closer.  It was +13 D in 2008, and it is now +5, and narrowing.

NC is holding at +25-26, up 5-6 points in terms of absentee ballots.

I think NC is probably going to shift to lean Romney.

Ohio is an apples to oranges comparison. Since there is no real party registration you can't really make a valid comparison to 2008.

As for NC we only have about 0.6% of the vote in, way to early to project anything.

[Minnesota Mike]

NC voter registration, showed a net gain of D's over the last week of 7858.

There is now a net loss for the D's since 2008 of 80,224 in NC.

Party Registration numbers in the South can be deceiving. How much of that 80,000 Dem decline is actually Obama voters? How much is Blue Dogs who voted for McCain? To me the more interesting numbers are the registered voters broken down by race. Total voter registration is up by about 244,000 and about 175,000 of that is minority voters.

[Minnesota Mike]

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We don't know that. The starting and election days don't match up exactly but we have actually have more ballots returned so far this cycle than on this date in 2008.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/date/1223190000/

[Minnesota Mike]

NC voter registration, showed a net gain of D's over the last week of 7858.

There is now a net loss for the D's since 2008 of 80,224 in NC.

Party Registration numbers in the South can be deceiving. How much of that 80,000 Dem decline is actually Obama voters? How much is Blue Dogs who voted for McCain? To me the more interesting numbers are the registered voters broken down by race. Total voter registration is up by about 244,000 and about 175,000 of that is minority voters.

And there, turnout seems to be substantially lower.

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We don't know that. The starting and election days don't match up exactly but we have actually have more ballots returned so far this cycle than on this date in 2008.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/date/1223190000/

And those have been substantially more Republican ballots.

Returned Ballots

Oct 5 2008

19,464 Ballots returned

Reps 57.1%
Dems 27.9%

Oct 5 2012

25,263 Ballots returned

Reps 53.3%
Dems 28.2%

[Minnesota Mike]

Absentee figures by Party in 2008

Republican: 122,412 (53.74%)
Democratic: 63,701 (27.96%)
Unaffiliated: 41,569 (18.25%)

Look familiar?

No.  Do you have a link?

For some reason i don't seem to able to link directly but if you can find the info here if you dig.

http://www.ncsbe.gov/content.aspx?id=93

[Minnesota Mike]

Absentee figures by Party in 2008

Republican: 122,412 (53.74%)
Democratic: 63,701 (27.96%)
Unaffiliated: 41,569 (18.25%)

Look familiar?

No.  Do you have a link?

For some reason i don't seem to able to link directly but if you can find the info here if you dig.

http://www.ncsbe.gov/content.aspx?id=93

The only thing that I found was 48% Democrat and 40% Republican, but that includes in person voting. 

As noted, it was R+20 in 2008, and it is running R+25 to R+26 now.

I don't know why they did not publish the totals but if you have time to kill you can add up all the sub categories  and come up with the same numbers Dan the Roman  did.  I just wasted an hour doing just that.

[Minnesota Mike]

Here is a a memo on early voting  put out by the Obama campaign (PDF)

https://secure.assets.bostatic.com/pdfs/Voter_Reg_and_Early_Voting_FINAL.pdf

Of course they put a pro Obama spin on things but they do a good job of laying out all the numbers.  Worth a read even if you are not an Obama partisan.

[Minnesota Mike]

Latest Early Voting article by Prof Michael McDonald.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-rising_b_1962843.html

[Minnesota Mike]

According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll 10% of Dems have already voted, only 4% of Republicans and 5% of Independents.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12073

Then OH is going Romney.  The votes turned in are running about 7 points for the Democrats.

Again party registration numbers in Ohio are deeply flawed (bangs head against wall).

[Minnesota Mike]

Big week ahead for early voting. In person early voting begins in North Carolina (10-18) and Nevada (10-20). In both states more than half the electorate will vote early and both report turnout by party so we will get a read on enthusiasm. So far only Iowa has had a big enough turnout along with party registration stats that we can make some educated guesses on enthusiasm.

[Minnesota Mike]

Early Voting up date from Florida.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/14/3050032/in-politics-polls-are-important.html

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[Minnesota Mike]

North Carolina

19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

The margin in North Carolina is almost exactly what it was at this point 4 years ago. Early in person voting started today so we should start seeing a big surge in total votes reported starting tomorrow. More votes will likely be cast in person today than the total mail in vote so far.

[Minnesota Mike]

North Carolina

19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

The margin in North Carolina is almost exactly what it was at this point 4 years ago. Early in person voting started today so we should start seeing a big surge in total votes reported starting tomorrow. More votes will likely be cast in person today than the total mail in vote so far.

More votes will cast by "one stop" voters, but check the absentee applications, not the votes cast.  It tend to be prospective.  That was about R +20 in 2008.  It is + 22.7 currently. 

Actually Mail in Ballots were R +25.8% in 2008.

[Minnesota Mike]

North Carolina

19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

The margin in North Carolina is almost exactly what it was at this point 4 years ago. Early in person voting started today so we should start seeing a big surge in total votes reported starting tomorrow. More votes will likely be cast in person today than the total mail in vote so far.

More votes will cast by "one stop" voters, but check the absentee applications, not the votes cast.  It tend to be prospective.  That was about R +20 in 2008.  It is + 22.7 currently.  

Actually Mail in Ballots were R +25.8% in 2008.

At this point in time?  Where are you statistics.  I did previously post Professor MacDonald's number.  

We have had this discussion before. The R+25.8% is for MIB for the whole election. You can find the info on the North Carolina Elections website, unfortunately while they break down everything by by sub groups they don't total it up so you have to do the math yourself.

Mail In Ballots in North Carolina in 2008

Republicans 122,411 (53.74%)
Democrats 63,701 (27.96%)
Libertarian 115 (0.05%)
Other 41,567 (18.25%)

[Minnesota Mike]

North Carolina

19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

The margin in North Carolina is almost exactly what it was at this point 4 years ago. Early in person voting started today so we should start seeing a big surge in total votes reported starting tomorrow. More votes will likely be cast in person today than the total mail in vote so far.

More votes will cast by "one stop" voters, but check the absentee applications, not the votes cast.  It tend to be prospective.  That was about R +20 in 2008.  It is + 22.7 currently.  

Actually Mail in Ballots were R +25.8% in 2008.

At this point in time?  Where are you statistics.  I did previously post Professor MacDonald's number.  

We have had this discussion before. The R+25.8% is for MIB for the whole election. You can find the info on the North Carolina Elections website, unfortunately while they break down everything by by sub groups they don't total it up so you have to do the math yourself.

Mail In Ballots in North Carolina in 2008

Republicans 122,411 (53.74%)
Democrats 63,701 (27.96%)
Libertarian 115 (0.05%)
Other 41,567 (18.25%)

Mike, saying that it is running ahead or behind the entire period will not cut it.  We have MacDonald's comments that were cited earlier absentee voting it was R +20 in "early voting"; it is now running slightly ahead of that and as of tomorrow, we'll go to "one stop," as well.

Honestly I have no clue what you are trying to say.

[Minnesota Mike]

Florida Early Voting

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/

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Tough to get a read on Florida. Democrats are doing much better in absentee voting than they did 4 years ago (Reps +16) but is that because more Dems are voting absentee instead early in person because the in person window was shortened?

[Minnesota Mike]

Honestly I have no clue what you are trying to say.

Well, let me put it this way.

According to the guy who tracks the statistics, NC was about R +20 at this point in time in 2008.  Today, in 2012, it is R + 22.7, in terms of applications for absentee ballots, and R  +27.1 in terms of those absentee ballots cast.  What part don't you understand?

But that is just wrong.  It was R + 26.1 at this point in 2008, not R+20.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/



19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

[Minnesota Mike]

http://m.wral.com/w/news-top/story/75937761/

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