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Author Topic: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here  (Read 3627 times)
Fuzzy
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« Reply #50 on: October 04, 2012, 04:24:42 pm »
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Quote from: MilesC56 on October 04, 2012, 12:54:30 am
As usual, I have a few more polls Smiley

NV-03

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

MI-01

Obama- 48%
Romney- 48%

FL-10

Romney- 47%
Obama- 47%

NH-01

Romney- 47%
Obama- 46%

CA-10

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

Excellent, thanks!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #51 on: October 05, 2012, 11:35:16 am »
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Lester & Associates for DCCC (FL-2)

Romney 47 / Obama 46

http://www.scribd.com/doc/109100430/FL-02-Lester-Associates-for-DCCC-Sept-2012
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #52 on: October 06, 2012, 03:16:35 pm »
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Quote from: traininthedistance on September 28, 2012, 01:13:15 pm
Quote from: Fuzzybigfoot on September 28, 2012, 12:48:27 pm
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 28, 2012, 06:27:38 am
NJ-02 (Stockton):

57-35 Obama

http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Stockton%20Polling%20Institute%20-%20CD2-2012sept.pdf

How did this district vote in 2008 ?

It was only about +8% Obama in 2008:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Av8O-dN2giY6dGtYTV8xS2hHcXJnX0pOZkdCU2V1N2c#gid=0

This is the sort of district that Dems really need to flip if they ever want to take back the House.  Unfortunately, LoBiondo is very personally popular, and with good reason: he's basically the single most moderate Republican left in the House.  (According to DW-NOMINATE, there is exactly one Republican who is considered more "liberal"- NJ-4's Chris Smith, who is somewhat moderate on economic issues but is also rabidly pro-life.)

Well, they took the House in 2006 and 2008 without it.  When LoBiondo retires, Democrats will likely pick up the seat.  It actually has a Democratic history(a Democrat held it from 1974 top 1994) and Democrats have a deep bench there. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #53 on: October 07, 2012, 12:56:34 am »
NY-27 (Siena):

51-42 Romney

Was 53-44 McCain in 2008.

The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll
October 1-4, 2012
633 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27
MOE +/- 3.9%

http://www.wgrz.com/assetpool/documents/121006105816_CD27%20October%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf
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Fuzzy
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« Reply #54 on: October 07, 2012, 02:48:37 pm »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on October 07, 2012, 12:56:34 am
NY-27 (Siena):

51-42 Romney

Was 53-44 McCain in 2008.

The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll
October 1-4, 2012
633 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27
MOE +/- 3.9%

http://www.wgrz.com/assetpool/documents/121006105816_CD27%20October%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf

Huh, that's actually an improvement from the last poll of NY-27.  It showed Romney leading by 12 or something. 
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GMantis
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« Reply #55 on: October 07, 2012, 03:19:34 pm »
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Quote from: MilesC56 on October 04, 2012, 12:54:30 am
As usual, I have a few more polls Smiley

NV-03

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

MI-01

Obama- 48%
Romney- 48%

FL-10

Romney- 47%
Obama- 47%

NH-01

Romney- 47%
Obama- 46%

CA-10

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%
These are the new districts?
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Fuzzy
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« Reply #56 on: October 07, 2012, 06:43:18 pm »
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Quote from: GMantis on October 07, 2012, 03:19:34 pm
Quote from: MilesC56 on October 04, 2012, 12:54:30 am
As usual, I have a few more polls Smiley

NV-03

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

MI-01

Obama- 48%
Romney- 48%

FL-10

Romney- 47%
Obama- 47%

NH-01

Romney- 47%
Obama- 46%

CA-10

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%
These are the new districts?

Yep.
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Lief
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« Reply #57 on: October 11, 2012, 10:57:49 am »
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MN-08
Romney - 47%
Obama - 45%

Obama won here 53-45 in 2008...
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« Reply #58 on: October 12, 2012, 01:46:04 pm »
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Quote from: Lief on October 11, 2012, 10:57:49 am
MN-08
Romney - 47%
Obama - 45%

Obama won here 53-45 in 2008...

Eek.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #59 on: October 16, 2012, 12:10:55 am »
VA-02:



How did this vote in 2008 ?

http://www.wvec.com/news/politics/Poll-174230921.html
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Lief
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« Reply #60 on: October 16, 2012, 12:36:28 am »
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50-49 for Obama in the new boundaries (51-49 in the old ones).

This is actually a really strong result for Obama. If the race is tied here, he should be winning the state overall.
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« Reply #61 on: October 16, 2012, 10:48:17 am »
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If Obama wins VA-02 he's won the state by at least three.
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« Reply #62 on: October 16, 2012, 11:15:04 am »
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VA-2 may have been atypically strong for McCain in Virginia because it's a naval district.
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Fuzzy
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« Reply #63 on: October 17, 2012, 01:09:08 am »
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Quote from: brittain33 on October 16, 2012, 11:15:04 am
VA-2 may have been atypically strong for McCain in Virginia because it's a naval district.

Not really, the old 2nd was 58%-42% for Bush, and it isn't all that different from the new one.



Anyways, I need to update the map!
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Fuzzy
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« Reply #64 on: October 17, 2012, 01:18:29 am »
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lol at Obama winning VA-2 but losing MN-8.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2012, 09:43:33 pm by Fuzzybigfoot »Logged
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #65 on: October 17, 2012, 12:41:45 pm »
TN-04:

56-38 Romney

http://de.scribd.com/doc/110321273/TN-04-Myers-Research-for-Eric-Stewart-Oct-2012

What was the 2008 result here ?
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Fuzzy
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« Reply #66 on: October 17, 2012, 07:09:56 pm »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on October 17, 2012, 12:41:45 pm
TN-04:

56-38 Romney

http://de.scribd.com/doc/110321273/TN-04-Myers-Research-for-Eric-Stewart-Oct-2012

What was the 2008 result here ?

It was 63%-36% McCain.


Here's a link from Daily Kos on all the disticts:  http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/17/1051740/-Daily-Kos-Elections-complete-redistricting-resources?detail=hide


Smiley
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Fuzzy
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« Reply #67 on: October 17, 2012, 07:35:28 pm »
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FL-22 is 51%-44% Obama.  Was 57%-43% Obama last time.

http://www.wptv.com/dpp/news/political/lois-frankel-adam-hasner-congressional-race-close-exclusive-wptv-poll-shows
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Fuzzy
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« Reply #68 on: October 18, 2012, 09:44:23 pm »
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Quote from: Fuzzybigfoot on September 25, 2012, 04:25:07 am
We need moar polls!!!
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Fuzzy
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« Reply #69 on: October 18, 2012, 09:44:55 pm »
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And Romney is now leading in Allen West's new district by 5. 
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« Reply #70 on: October 19, 2012, 12:34:27 am »
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Alas, the only likely poll for SC-7, that done by Winthrop University, did not include a Presidential race question.

Plenty of other questions, such as voter opinions on labor unions.
Overall: 27% Favorable, 30% Neutral, 38% Negative
Democrats: 45% Favorable, 36% Neutral, 12% Negative
Republicans: 9% Favorable, 24% Neutral, 63% Negative
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Fuzzy
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« Reply #71 on: October 27, 2012, 03:53:05 pm »
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Quote from: Fuzzybigfoot on October 18, 2012, 09:44:23 pm
Quote from: Fuzzybigfoot on September 25, 2012, 04:25:07 am
We need moar polls!!!
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krazen1211
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« Reply #72 on: October 30, 2012, 10:04:51 am »
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Romney surges in Nevada in the latest poll!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1028fb62-ff4a-4f44-aaa1-f8093e463df4



Romney 48
Obama 48
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Badger
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« Reply #73 on: October 30, 2012, 11:33:33 am »
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Quote from: krazen1211 on October 30, 2012, 10:04:51 am
Romney surges in Nevada in the latest poll!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1028fb62-ff4a-4f44-aaa1-f8093e463df4



Romney 48
Obama 48

In NV-4 you mean? Get it right.
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Torie
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« Reply #74 on: October 30, 2012, 01:17:22 pm »
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Quote from: Badger on October 30, 2012, 11:33:33 am
Quote from: krazen1211 on October 30, 2012, 10:04:51 am
Romney surges in Nevada in the latest poll!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1028fb62-ff4a-4f44-aaa1-f8093e463df4



Romney 48
Obama 48

In NV-4 you mean? Get it right.

Yes, Badger, that is the good news for you. The bad news is that NV-04 is about three quarters of a point more Dem than the state as a whole (3.44% Dem PVI versus 2.68% Dem for NV as a whole).  Tongue
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