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| | | |-+  2016 PPP N.H. poll - Clinton, Christie on top.
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Author Topic: 2016 PPP N.H. poll - Clinton, Christie on top.  (Read 1184 times)
MorningInAmerica
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« on: August 16, 2012, 01:17:57 pm »
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NH_081612.pdf

More evidence that 2016 Democratic nomination is Hillary's if she wants it.
Joe Biden........................................................ 9%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 55%
Andrew Cuomo ............................................... 6%
Martin O'Malley............................................... 1%
Deval Patrick................................................... 3%
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 0%
Mark Warner ................................................... 0%
Elizabeth Warren ............................................ 8%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 17%

Her favorability rating with NH Democrats is an astounding 91/6%, and it was similar in Iowa. Seriously, if she runs, I don't see anyone emerging to take it away from her.

For the Republicans:
Jeb Bush......................................................... 15%
Chris Christie .................................................. 24%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 12%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 7%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 10%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 12%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 8%
Rick Santorum................................................ 7%
Scott Walker ................................................... 3%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 2%
« Last Edit: August 16, 2012, 01:26:59 pm by MorningInAmerica »Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2012, 01:32:33 pm »
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Dems

Clinton 55%
Biden 9%
Warren 8%
Cuomo 6%
Patrick 3%
O'Malley 1%
Scweitzer 0%
Warner 0%

If Clinton doesn't run:

Biden 19%
Warren 17%
Cuomo 15%
Patrick 7%
O'Malley 3%
Scweitzer 1%
Warner 1%

If neither Biden nor Clinton runs:

Cuomo 23%
Warren 18%
Patrick 12%
O'Malley 2%
Warner 2%
Schweitzer 1%

GOP

Christie 24%
J. Bush 15%
Huckabee 12%
Rubio 12%
Rand Paul 10%
Ryan 8%
Palin 7%
Santorum 7%
Walker 3%

Anemic showing for sitting VP Biden, given how much more well known he is than the other non-Clinton candidates.  I don't think he'd actually end up doing that well if he does run.

The poll was conducted Aug. 9-12, so probably about half the interviews were done after the Ryan announcement.  I'm actually surprised he didn't do better here, but I guess if he'd gotten a huge bounce, then his average for the four days woulud have been better than 8%.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2012, 03:52:10 pm by Mr. Morden »Logged

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« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2012, 03:17:00 pm »
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Go Christie!
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« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2012, 03:33:15 pm »
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I dont think Hillary or Biden will Run.

Its going to be Cuomo v Christie....the battle of the Hudson
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2012, 06:50:06 pm »
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I dont think Hillary or Biden will Run.

Its going to be Cuomo v Christie....the battle of the Hudson

I used to be convinced she was done with politics too. But then again, if you were her, and you had those numbers, would you be able to resist? Especially if your last name is "Clinton"?
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"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2012, 07:05:12 pm »
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Favorability for each potential candidate among members of their own party:

Clinton 91 / 6% for +85%
Biden 73 / 14% for +59%
Warren 56 / 12% for +44%
Patrick 53 / 15% for +38%
Cuomo 39 / 17% for +22%
Warner 12 / 9% for +3%
O'Malley 7 / 10% for -3%
Scwheitzer 5 / 8% for -3%

Christie 74 / 11% for +63%
Rubio 68 / 8% for +60%
Bush 70 / 11% for +59%
Ryan 64 / 11% for +53%
Huckabee 65 / 21% for +44%
Walker 48 / 10% for +38%
Palin 60 / 30% for +30%
Rand Paul 53 / 27% for +26%
Santorum 52 / 29% for +23%

So yeah, Clinton's 91/6 rating is unbelievably good.  In the primary matchup, she's at 58% among women and 51% among men.  Also note that Patrick and Warren both have a fair amount of name recognition in NH, unlike in Iowa.

On the GOP side, who wins among....
Tea Party members: Christie
non-Tea Party members: Christie
not sure if Tea Party members: Huckabee
Evangelicals: Bush
non-Evangelicals: Christie
moderate: Christie
somewhat conservative: Christie
very conservative: Christie/Huckabee tie
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« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2012, 10:11:45 pm »
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I expect both fields (GOP field obviously empty if POTUS Romney) to be considerably smaller. That said, in said jungle I'd support Paul Ryan or Bobby Jindal.
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« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2012, 01:25:33 am »
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Wow nobody knows who Schweitzer is.
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« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2012, 07:00:45 am »
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Christie on top? He's crushing it.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #9 on: August 17, 2012, 12:27:11 pm »
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Christie on top? He's crushing it.

No pun intended. Wink
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"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
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« Reply #10 on: August 17, 2012, 02:14:46 pm »
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I hope Republicans nominate Christie. What a hilarious disaster that would turn out to be.
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« Reply #11 on: August 17, 2012, 03:43:42 pm »
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Christie on top? He's crushing it.

No pun intended. Wink

If he's the nominee in 2016, they'll never stop. Wink
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« Reply #12 on: August 17, 2012, 04:22:34 pm »
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It is good to see Christie leading. He'd be a great nominee. I kind of expect a Christie/Santorum battle in 2016.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #13 on: August 17, 2012, 06:25:05 pm »
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It is good to see Christie leading. He'd be a great nominee. I kind of expect a Christie/Santorum battle in 2016.

Fair point, though to be honest, I think Santorum is finished. The only reason I can fathom that he did as well as he did in 2012 was a result of circumstances. Look at the field...Perry, Bachmann, Cain (and Gingrich to an extent) imploded. Santorum was all that was left to face the great, conservative-dreaded Romney. Huckabee or Palin (who were included in the PPP poll) would suck up that Santorum vote, IMO.
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"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
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« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2012, 02:35:24 am »
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Didn't they just recently have a 2016 poll showing a Huckabee-Santorum tie in Iowa? Since I doubt Huckabee will run, and I think Santorum will, I don't think he'll have too much trouble from him.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2012, 03:26:56 am »
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Didn't they just recently have a 2016 poll showing a Huckabee-Santorum tie in Iowa?

Yes, but with Christie just one point behind first place as well.  Here's that Iowa poll:


Huckabee 17%
Santorum 17%
Christie 16%
Rand Paul 11%
Rubio 10%
J. Bush 8%
Ryan 6%
Palin 4%
Walker 4%
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« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2012, 11:43:22 pm »
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Warner 12 / 9% for +3%

Absurd.  Warner needs to step up his game.
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« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2012, 11:49:04 pm »
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More evidence that 2016 Democratic nomination is Hillary's if she wants it.

Just like the 2008 nomination was?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2012, 12:21:22 am »
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More evidence that 2016 Democratic nomination is Hillary's if she wants it.

Just like the 2008 nomination was?

And don't forget 2004!  Hillary Clinton: Perpetual President of the Future.

But seriously, she's in a far stronger position for 2016 than she was for 2008.  I could type up all the reasons why again, but I'll just link to what I previously wrote on this topic:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152668.msg3277351#msg3277351
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« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2012, 11:41:20 am »
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If Hillary runs, I can't envision any serious Democrat running against her.  They'd lose so badly and so embarrassingly that it doesn't seem worthwhile, even for someone like Feingold.
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"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2012, 12:19:26 pm »
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I hope Republicans nominate Christie. What a hilarious disaster that would turn out to be.

I hope Democrats nominate Joe Biden. Pretty sure that would top the list of hilarious disasters.
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"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
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« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2012, 12:35:02 pm »
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Santorum clearly breaks the "next in line" guy for the GOP. Maybe Hillary breaks the "nobody saw that coming two years ago" rule as well for the Dems.
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