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Author Topic: France with German parties and vice-versa  (Read 372 times)
Peter the Lefty
Peternerdman
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« on: August 19, 2012, 12:00:01 am »
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All right, I thought it was time for someone to attempt to compare the parties and demographics of Germany and France.  I decided to leave the Pirates out of this for now since they're a bit of a passing trend, it would seem. 
How the French would vote with German parties:
The fact that the overwhelming majority of UMP supporters would support the CDU/CSU is an obvious one.  Since the SPD is so much to the right of the PS, I'm willing to bet that only half of PS voters would vote SPD.  The other half would probably be split almost evenly between die Grünen and die Linke (who'd have a much easier time as ex-GDR communists in France given how forgiving the French are).  The FN would frankly be all over the place, since there's no obvious German equivalent (besides die Republikaner, but they're too obscure).  There was a poll once in Germany showing that if Thilo Sarrazin were to form his own party, it would actually get around 18% public support (Le Pen's 2012 score, coincidentally enough), but that the main parties who'd suffer would be the CDU, the SPD, and die Linke, so I guess the FN vote would mainly scatter amongst those three.  The FdG would clearly go to die Linke, even though the FdG is clearly more radical.  I suppose a few might go to the DKP, but the vast majority would go to die Linke.  MoDem voters would likely be on the SPD right, though I suppose some might be FDPers as well.  And the fact that EELV voters would go to die Grünen is probably the most unified and bloc vote there is.  Based on this, support for the German parties would be roughly:
CDU: 32%
SPD: 25%
Linke: 25%
Grünen: 10%
FDP: 4%
Others: 4%

How the Germans would vote with French parties:
All right, CDU and FDP supporters would mainly vote UMP, though I guess there are some socially liberal FDPers who would prefer the MoDem.  And a strong minority of the CDU's electorate would probably vote FN.  The majority of SPD voters would probably vote PS, though a significant number of those on the SPD right would back the MoDem.  And you'd have the xenophobic ones who'd vote FN.  Die Grünen voters would probably be mainly for EELV, though many of the ones who vote for them just because they were angry at the SPD's right turns over the years might vote PS.  Die Linke's voters would mainly be FdG, though some would be FN.  A fair amount might even be PS, in fact.  Rough projection:
UMP: 31%
PS-22%
FN-18%
MoDem-13%
EELV-9%
FdG-3%
Others-4%
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2012, 03:49:21 pm »
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Comments?  Anyone? 
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Zuza
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2012, 05:43:12 pm »
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The fact that the overwhelming majority of UMP supporters would support the CDU/CSU is an obvious one.
But some would vote for FDP (among them probably most of UMP-affiliated Radical Party and former Liberal Democracy supporters) and maybe also Die Republikaner.
The FN would frankly be all over the place, since there's no obvious German equivalent (besides die Republikaner, but they're too obscure).
Why not NDP?
MoDem voters would likely be on the SPD right, though I suppose some might be FDPers as well.
Some also would vote for CDU. MoDem have christian democrats among predecessors (though I don't know how much this fact affects current MoDem voters). And some may vote for Greens.
though I guess there are some socially liberal FDPers who would prefer the MoDem
Or Radical Party if it would run a separate list.
FN-18%
I think most of those 18% who can support Sarrazin wouldn't vote for FN.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2012, 05:49:18 pm by Zuza »Logged
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