NY-27: Siena Research: Hochul, Collins nearly tie

[MilesC56]

Article.

Chris Collins (R)- 47%
Kathy Hochul (D)- 45%
Not sure- 7%

628 RV, 3.9% MoE

Romney leads Obama 53-41, which seems very realistic.

[krazen1211]

The people of NY-27 obviously prefer a conservative to a Bay Area lunatic like Hochul.

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

The people of NY-27 obviously prefer a conservative to a Bay Area lunatic like Hochul.

This is an R+6 district (assuming the country was 50/50). Hochul trailing is not a surprise. Her being behind by 2 is pretty good.

[Talleyrand]

The people of NY-27 obviously prefer a conservative to a Bay Area lunatic like Hochul.

This is an R+6 district (assuming the country was 50/50). Hochul trailing is not a surprise. Her being behind by 2 is pretty good.

It won't be enough, but a very respectable performance regardless.

[MilesC56]

The people of NY-27 obviously prefer a conservative to a Bay Area lunatic like Hochul.

Umm...she votes with her caucus 82% of the time, making her one of the top 25 most conservative House Dems.

[Zioneer]

The people of NY-27 obviously prefer a conservative to a Bay Area lunatic like Hochul.

Umm...she votes with her caucus 82% of the time, making her one of the top 25 most conservative House Dems.

She's still more liberal than Jim Matheson, who votes with Democrats less than half the time, if you don't count procedural votes.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You know it just goes to show you how week the GOP is in NY state and why they can't come close to statewide victory.


This district and the Southern Tier one (excluding Tompkins) would have to surpass 70% GOP as a matter of normal performance.

[MilesC56]

The people of NY-27 obviously prefer a conservative to a Bay Area lunatic like Hochul.

Umm...she votes with her caucus 82% of the time, making her one of the top 25 most conservative House Dems.

She's still more liberal than Jim Matheson, who votes with Democrats less than half the time, if you don't count procedural votes.

That's not really saying much...the entire caucus, except for Boren and Ross, are more liberal than Matheson

Still, she's far from being one of the most liberal members of the caucus.

[Zioneer]

The people of NY-27 obviously prefer a conservative to a Bay Area lunatic like Hochul.

Umm...she votes with her caucus 82% of the time, making her one of the top 25 most conservative House Dems.

She's still more liberal than Jim Matheson, who votes with Democrats less than half the time, if you don't count procedural votes.

That's not really saying much...the entire caucus, except for Boren and Ross, are more liberal than Matheson

Still, she's far from being one of the most liberal members of the caucus.

I know; I just despise Matheson so much that I feel compelled to mention him whenever someone talks about conservative Democrats. Because then I can whine about him being the only Democrat who gets to be treated as a "Utah Democrat" rather than a "national" Democrat.

[MilesC56]

I found the crosstabs for this poll.

Some other notable findings:

-Gillibrand leads Long 49-40.

-Cuomo's favorability is 66/29.

-Hochul's vote against extending the Bush Tax Cuts doesn't seem like a winning issue for Collins, despite the R lean of the district. 50% want the tax cuts for the rich to expire while 47% don't.

-Voters trust Collins more on Health Care, Jobs, Taxes and the Budget Deficit. They trust Hochul more on Education, Afghanistan and "representing the interests of the community."

[MilesC56]

Hochul is out with her first TV ad.

[Zioneer]

Hochul is out with her first TV ad.

Not bad; plays up her independent credentials,  shows her willingness to make sure money is where it's supposed to be (in the eyes of her constituents, at least), and is concise. Probably didn't cost much to make, either.