Rank these maps from FiveThirtyEight by plausibility

[Yelnoc]

The data comes from the sidebar on their site.

A) Current projection

B) Obama's best map within MoE

C) Romney's best map within MoE

[opebo]

A is obviously the most likely by far of the three.

Both C and B are very unlikely, but I'm thinking you have an error on C with Indiana? 

[J. J.]

Map C is almost a realignment map. 

If Map B had MT, SD, and IN flipped, and WA was flipped on Map C, I'd say each was equally plausible.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Obviously A.

[cavalcade]

A > something that looks mostly like B > something that looks mostly like C > C > B.

[Vosem]

Anybody who doesn't answer A is a hack. I'm not actually sure whether B or C is likelier; a Romney landslide is likelier than an Obama one (300-350 EV range victory), but these landslides are so enormous the likeliest thing I can think of is a 9/11-type attack that could give Obama a 400+ victory.

Putting it another way: A needs more Romney, B & C need more Obama.

[Supersonic]

A is by far the most likely out of these three scenarios.

B, in my view, is just not happening, if only because of South Dakota and Arizona.

C is a tad more likely than B, but still very, very, unlikely.

[Likely Voter]

Maybe a 20% chance of the  top map, with a 35% chance of a narrower Obama win and a 5% chance of a bigger Obama win.

The other maps are too ludicrous to even ponder

[NHI]

Of the three maps, A is the likeliest, though if the economy worsens I wouldn't rule out C.

[pbrower2a]

A -- basically a near-repeat of 2008. Arizona and Indiana are on the fringe of contention; Missouri and North Carolina will be close. That's if things revert to where they were before the Ryan bump when the novelty wears off.

B-- with a Romney collapse, although such a collapse would put Georgia, Texas, and some Mountain South states in play.

C -- with an Obama collapse for which time is running out.

A is much likelier than B, itself much more likely than C.  

[Likely Voter]

I'm not sure how the OP calculated the best case scenarios from 538, but here are the maps with Obama and Romney only winning their 'safe' states.

Best Romney scenario: 322 EV v 216 EV

Best Obama scenario: 360 EV v 178 EV

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I wouldn't call MI and NM safe Obama, nor are AZ/GA safe Romney.

[pepper11]

I wouldn't call MI and NM safe Obama, nor are AZ/GA safe Romney.

I think all of those are safe in the sense that they only flip in a landslide. 

[Oldiesfreak1854]

A, then C, then B.  Here's my scenario:

Current Projection

Obama- 332
Romney- 206

Best Obama Scenario:

Obama- 437
Romney- 101


Best Romney Scenario:

Romney- 374
Obama- 164

Here is my projection (with toss-ups):

Obama- 196
Romney- 191
Toss-Up- 151

[sentinel]

I think people's best Romney scenarios are all fairly realistic, but the best Obama scenarios I think are unrealistic --especially whoever gave Obama the south. He's far more likely to carry western states before he grabs the south.

[Free Palestine]

I tend to think Obama has the better chance.  But never underestimate the stupidity of the American electorate.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I think people's best Romney scenarios are all fairly realistic, but the best Obama scenarios I think are unrealistic --especially whoever gave Obama the south. He's far more likely to carry western states before he grabs the south.

I gave Romney Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas.

[Comrade Funk]

If PA/MI is a tossup, then so is MO.

[Person Man]

Romney has probably both a lower ceiling and floor than Obama but we might be overestimating Obama by a tad...especially in the southern Hill country. Obama personifies the very reason why they may never vote  non-DINO D again in Federal State-wide races. 

..and I think JJ is probably has a little high of a threshold for a realignment. I'll say its a realignment if its the C map plus one.

[morgieb]

A, B, C.

[Smid]

I think A is my current prediction.

[Eraserhead]

An absolute best case scenario for Obama should include Georgia for sure and possibly a couple of other states too.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

An absolute best case scenario for Obama should include Georgia for sure and possibly a couple of other states too.

It looks like the best case map was the ones that had at most a 97.5% chance of going Romney. SD was 97.4%, while GA was 97.8%. WV was directly behind at 97.9%.

[pbrower2a]

I think people's best Romney scenarios are all fairly realistic, but the best Obama scenarios I think are unrealistic --especially whoever gave Obama the south. He's far more likely to carry western states before he grabs the south.

This map

Obama- 437
Romney- 101

assumes that President Obama can win back the five states that Clinton won twice but Obama got clobbered in -- Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia. President Obama is a poor match by culture to any of those states.  Projecting that the President would win Texas makes more sense (and not much!) than projecting any, let alone all, of the Clinton-but-not-Obama states that Democrats used to need to win. Carter (in 1976) and Clinton were the right sorts of Democrats to win those states -- Southern moderates or populists.  Texas is much more urban than any of the Clinton-but-not-Carter states.  Suburbs of Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio defied the national trend of 2008 and went for McCain; should they go for Obama as did suburbs of... let's say Denver or St. Louis... then President Obama wins Georgia and Texas.

President Obama has no connection to the upper "Mountain South", which also explains why he did badly in Missouri for a winning Democrat (the Ozarks are hard to distinguish culturally and politically from Appalachia). If he can get out the votes in greater St. Louis and Kansas City to an inordinate degree he wins Missouri.  Georgia is more ambiguous. Clinton won it only once.  Arizona? The Governor and the sheriff of the largest city have been the most effective right-wing demagogues since the late Senator Jesse Helms. Demagoguery usually collapses, but not as fast as its detractors wish. But it could.

Here is what I think a 437-101 split of electoral votes looks like:

Obama- 437
Romney- 101

That will require a Romney/Ryan collapse that I have not seen happen as verified in polls -- yet.

 

[renegadedemocrat]

I would not be surprised if the polls were heavily impacted after the debates, which I think is very possible. I think the debates will expose a lot about Paul Ryan, and while Joe Biden isn't a star Vice President, or anything close, it's my contention that Ryan's too far right, and that's going to be reflected in the Vice Presidential debate. Obama and Romney will most likely draw or win in slight margins either way. Out of the Democrat states in the above map, I really only think Missouri is within his reach at the moment. But that may change, just as Obama can lose states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania if America jumps on board with the Romney-Ryan ticket. Anything can happen, and in Pre-Convention August, the polls don't mean too much. After the conventions and especially the debates, things will change drastically, and that's where I think Obama will stretch out his lead in Michigan and Minnesota.