I think people's best Romney scenarios are all fairly realistic, but the best Obama scenarios I think are unrealistic --especially whoever gave Obama the south. He's far more likely to carry western states before he grabs the south.
This map
Obama- 437
Romney- 101
assumes that President Obama can win back the five states that Clinton won twice but Obama got clobbered in -- Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia. President Obama is a poor match by culture to any of those states. Projecting that the President would win Texas makes more sense (and not much!) than projecting any, let alone all, of the Clinton-but-not-Obama states that Democrats used to need to win. Carter (in 1976) and Clinton were the right sorts of Democrats to win those states -- Southern moderates or populists. Texas is much more urban than any of the Clinton-but-not-Carter states. Suburbs of Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio defied the national trend of 2008 and went for McCain; should they go for Obama as did suburbs of... let's say Denver or St. Louis... then President Obama wins Georgia and Texas.
President Obama has no connection to the upper "Mountain South", which also explains why he did badly in Missouri for a winning Democrat (the Ozarks are hard to distinguish culturally and politically from Appalachia). If he can get out the votes in greater St. Louis and Kansas City to an inordinate degree he wins Missouri. Georgia is more ambiguous. Clinton won it only once. Arizona? The Governor and the sheriff of the largest city have been the most effective right-wing demagogues since the late Senator Jesse Helms. Demagoguery usually collapses, but not as fast as its detractors wish. But it could.
Here is what I think a 437-101 split of electoral votes looks like:
Obama- 437
Romney- 101
That will require a Romney/Ryan collapse that I have not seen happen as verified in polls -- yet.
The only way I see Texas going for Obama is in a Democratic landslide (or maybe even near-landslide). And southern moderates? Moderates in general vote Democrat, regardless of how liberal the Democratic candidate is, so it's entirely possible. I still think that that map is very unlikely, but it's not entirely impossible.
And about New Mexico and Michigan: they've been swing states in the past, so they would by definition be toss-ups. One election does not a red or blue state make.
