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Author Topic: Unlucky timing for Obama's speech  (Read 844 times)
pepper11
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« on: August 19, 2012, 11:31:28 am »
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Both America and Obama will likely be in store for a rude awakening the day after his convention speech.

http://behavioraleconomy.gallup.com/2012/08/august-unemployment-not-looking-good.html
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2012, 11:34:17 am »
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And Republicans continue to celebrate their success in blocking all of Obama's agenda.
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pepper11
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2012, 11:35:49 am »
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No one is celebrating 40+ months of 8+% unemployment. Especially those I know that can't find work. The point is that politically the DNC convention falls on an unlucky week. Just like the football game could overshaddow Clinton's speech, this could overshaddow Obama's. On the oher hand, a good number probably really boosts Obama because the press may raise the stakes.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2012, 11:44:12 am by pepper11 »Logged

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« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2012, 11:59:30 am »
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And Republicans continue to celebrate their success in blocking all of Obama's agenda.

LOL @ the idea either party is to blame
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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2012, 12:32:04 pm »
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Talk about a bounce.
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2012, 12:50:18 pm »
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If you put your trust in Gallup, you are a lost cause.
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PittsburghSean
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2012, 12:58:17 pm »
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If you put your trust in Gallup, you are a lost cause.

Gallup can poll presidential races, but they have failed big time at measuring economic success. I'll be waiting for the official data.
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pepper11
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2012, 01:18:38 pm »
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If you put your trust in Gallup, you are a lost cause.

Gallup can poll presidential races, but they have failed big time at measuring economic success. I'll be waiting for the official data.

They look to be pretty accurate according to the graph. But who knows how this month will turn out. In any case, I still think the stakes are raised for this months report due to its timing.
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2012, 01:25:16 pm »
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Weekly claims haven't really gone up and other indicators for August haven't been too bad so I would expect a jobs report like last month. I wonder if there is an increase in the labor force that is going on right now. That could raise the unemployment rate even with decent payroll numbers.
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« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2012, 01:34:19 pm »
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Gallup usually doesn't get this rights, their numbers can be lower or higher than the actual number most of the time.
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pepper11
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« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2012, 01:36:32 pm »
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I wonder if there is an increase in the labor force that is going on right now. That could raise the unemployment rate even with decent payroll numbers.

This may happen as economy seems to be picking up slightly on non-employment measures. It happened last month, but was fluky and more due to rounding error (it only changed by a couple thousandths, but crossed the rounding marker to go up from 8.2 to 8.3).
« Last Edit: August 19, 2012, 02:38:55 pm by pepper11 »Logged

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PittsburghSean
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« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2012, 01:37:00 pm »
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Weekly claims haven't really gone up and other indicators for August haven't been too bad so I would expect a jobs report like last month. I wonder if there is an increase in the labor force that is going on right now. That could raise the unemployment rate even with decent payroll numbers.

You're correct in your assessment, but if the unemployment rate goes up despite good numbers on job creation themselves, the news will be very bad for Obama because then Romney can say the rate's still going up. Obama need about 150,000 jobs and 8.2 or 8.1% unemployment at the end of this month.
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« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2012, 03:13:04 pm »
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Gallup usually doesn't get this rights, their numbers can be lower or higher than the actual number most of the time.

That is why I'm not putting too much stock into this.  Gallup's track record on unemployment was never that good, especially in 2010.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2012, 03:30:13 pm by Senator Scott »Logged

Clinton1996
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« Reply #13 on: August 19, 2012, 03:25:26 pm »
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If you put your trust in Gallup, you are a lost cause.

Gallup can poll presidential races, but they have failed big time at measuring economic success. I'll be waiting for the official data.
This. Right now I think most are forecasting a gain of about 137,000 while the unemployment rate stays at 8.3 percent. But August is usually worse. Though last year it was really because of the Debt Cieling Debacle. I think it'll be about 150,000 and the rate will fall to 8.2. Jobless claims are at their lowest since March, and continuing claims are falling.
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« Reply #14 on: August 19, 2012, 03:25:55 pm »
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A lot of folks here thought that this months jobs report showing unemployment going up was going to hurt Obama but he actually went up in the polls, probably showing that it was really a mixed report with no effect and (more likely) most people arent really paying attention to job reports. People judge the economy based on their own personal life and that of their community.

I think that the only way for the jobs report to have an impact is if it showed a significant shift in one direction or the other (0.3% up or down).
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« Reply #15 on: August 19, 2012, 03:29:00 pm »
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And Republicans continue to celebrate their success in blocking all of Obama's agenda.

LOL @ the idea either party is to blame

We can blame both parties.
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« Reply #16 on: August 19, 2012, 03:37:24 pm »

The August unemployment rate will probably show some improvement, if only due to the traditional labor force shrinkage that comes from the millions of youth who had (or wanted) a summer job leaving the labor market to go back to school.

Also keep in mind that a lot of economics news is largely an expectation game. If Gallup predicts bad numbers and the expert consensus has a similar forecast, then what otherwise would be considered a mediocre unemployment report could still end up still looking "good" for the economy and Obama.
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« Reply #17 on: August 19, 2012, 04:21:36 pm »
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I think we can all agree on one thing, all of us regardless of political party want unemployment to go down, especially 8%.
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2012, 04:35:18 pm »
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If you put your trust in Gallup, you are a lost cause.

Gallup can poll presidential races, but they have failed big time at measuring economic success. I'll be waiting for the official data.


They look to be pretty accurate according to the graph. But who knows how this month will turn out. In any case, I still think the stakes are raised for this months report due to its timing.

You're right -- especially important for Obama. This is the first time since the spring that I've felt Obama was in a weak position. Could be a big game changer for him.
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PittsburghSean
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« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2012, 04:37:29 pm »
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If you put your trust in Gallup, you are a lost cause.

Gallup can poll presidential races, but they have failed big time at measuring economic success. I'll be waiting for the official data.
This. Right now I think most are forecasting a gain of about 137,000 while the unemployment rate stays at 8.3 percent. But August is usually worse. Though last year it was really because of the Debt Cieling Debacle. I think it'll be about 150,000 and the rate will fall to 8.2. Jobless claims are at their lowest since March, and continuing claims are falling.

If the numbers are what you are predicted, that will be some good news for Obama that he can come out swinging with. If the predictions are right, then it probably won't be good enough.

Also notice that we created 150,000+ jobs last month... which was after the Transportation Bill passed both chambers of Congress. When the bill was stalled and we were passing stop gap measures, we only were adding about 60,000 jobs a month. So who says government can't create jobs?
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« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2012, 07:13:21 pm »
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Please don't put much stock in Gallup's economic numbers, or their poll numbers for that matter. I used to check their polling every day but now I just ignore them. Their data never seem to match up with the majority of other pollsters, there's always wild swings.

We're at a point right now where any economic data point can be interpreted any way you want. Those who think the economy is headed for a downturn have their own data, while those who see a continuing recovery have different numbers. The economy is the way it is, both camps have established their perception of it. The election will now depend on candidate heuristics and turnout.

It's not Morning in America, but it's not 1932 either.
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« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2012, 07:16:39 pm »
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Why should we assume that the next report'll be negative? Why are the GOP talking down the economy?
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PittsburghSean
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« Reply #22 on: August 19, 2012, 07:48:32 pm »
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Why should we assume that the next report'll be negative? Why are the GOP talking down the economy?

Well, I guess our economy here in the states would be better than the austerity economy of Britain... but it is still very very sluggish here in the states. So I think we are all just a little pessimistic.
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Politico
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« Reply #23 on: August 20, 2012, 07:10:45 am »
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Unless the jobs report shows unemployment miraculously falling a full percentage point, with 1,500,000 jobs created in the month of August, it's not going to be positive for the president. It would take about 500,000 jobs created each month between now and the election for the unemployment rate to fall to the level it was at when Reagan won re-election (the highest level  of any modern president who was re-elected). It's not going to happen. There's a greater chance of the Cleveland Browns defeating the Detroit Lions in the Super Bowl.

The bottom-line: It may not hurt him, but it definitely will not help him.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2012, 07:16:02 am by Politico »Logged

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« Reply #24 on: August 20, 2012, 07:59:25 am »
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Unless the jobs report shows unemployment miraculously falling a full percentage point, with 1,500,000 jobs created in the month of August, it's not going to be positive for the president. It would take about 500,000 jobs created each month between now and the election for the unemployment rate to fall to the level it was at when Reagan won re-election (the highest level  of any modern president who was re-elected). It's not going to happen. There's a greater chance of the Cleveland Browns defeating the Detroit Lions in the Super Bowl.

The bottom-line: It may not hurt him, but it definitely will not help him.

It doesn't matter what the rate is, it just matters where it's going.
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