Unlucky timing for Obama's speech

[pepper11]

Both America and Obama will likely be in store for a rude awakening the day after his convention speech.

http://behavioraleconomy.gallup.com/2012/08/august-unemployment-not-looking-good.html

[pepper11]

No one is celebrating 40+ months of 8+% unemployment. Especially those I know that can't find work. The point is that politically the DNC convention falls on an unlucky week. Just like the football game could overshaddow Clinton's speech, this could overshaddow Obama's. On the oher hand, a good number probably really boosts Obama because the press may raise the stakes.

[pepper11]

If you put your trust in Gallup, you are a lost cause.

Gallup can poll presidential races, but they have failed big time at measuring economic success. I'll be waiting for the official data.

They look to be pretty accurate according to the graph. But who knows how this month will turn out. In any case, I still think the stakes are raised for this months report due to its timing.

[pepper11]

I wonder if there is an increase in the labor force that is going on right now. That could raise the unemployment rate even with decent payroll numbers.

This may happen as economy seems to be picking up slightly on non-employment measures. It happened last month, but was fluky and more due to rounding error (it only changed by a couple thousandths, but crossed the rounding marker to go up from 8.2 to 8.3).