Unlucky timing for Obama's speech

[PittsburghSean]

If you put your trust in Gallup, you are a lost cause.

Gallup can poll presidential races, but they have failed big time at measuring economic success. I'll be waiting for the official data.

[PittsburghSean]

Weekly claims haven't really gone up and other indicators for August haven't been too bad so I would expect a jobs report like last month. I wonder if there is an increase in the labor force that is going on right now. That could raise the unemployment rate even with decent payroll numbers.

You're correct in your assessment, but if the unemployment rate goes up despite good numbers on job creation themselves, the news will be very bad for Obama because then Romney can say the rate's still going up. Obama need about 150,000 jobs and 8.2 or 8.1% unemployment at the end of this month.

[PittsburghSean]

If you put your trust in Gallup, you are a lost cause.

Gallup can poll presidential races, but they have failed big time at measuring economic success. I'll be waiting for the official data.

They look to be pretty accurate according to the graph. But who knows how this month will turn out. In any case, I still think the stakes are raised for this months report due to its timing.

You're right -- especially important for Obama. This is the first time since the spring that I've felt Obama was in a weak position. Could be a big game changer for him.

[PittsburghSean]

If you put your trust in Gallup, you are a lost cause.

Gallup can poll presidential races, but they have failed big time at measuring economic success. I'll be waiting for the official data.

This. Right now I think most are forecasting a gain of about 137,000 while the unemployment rate stays at 8.3 percent. But August is usually worse. Though last year it was really because of the Debt Cieling Debacle. I think it'll be about 150,000 and the rate will fall to 8.2. Jobless claims are at their lowest since March, and continuing claims are falling.

If the numbers are what you are predicted, that will be some good news for Obama that he can come out swinging with. If the predictions are right, then it probably won't be good enough.

Also notice that we created 150,000+ jobs last month... which was after the Transportation Bill passed both chambers of Congress. When the bill was stalled and we were passing stop gap measures, we only were adding about 60,000 jobs a month. So who says government can't create jobs?

[PittsburghSean]

Why should we assume that the next report'll be negative? Why are the GOP talking down the economy?

Well, I guess our economy here in the states would be better than the austerity economy of Britain... but it is still very very sluggish here in the states. So I think we are all just a little pessimistic.