Which Senate seats are most vulnerable in '14? (both parties)

[Blue3]

Which Senate seats are most in danger in '14, on both sides?

I know the Democrats will probably have the most vulnerable seats, since this is the freshman class of 2008.

But before we write them off, every freshman Democratic Senator from the class of '06 who ran for re-election WON (I think only Webb retired, and the Democrats kept his seat). So I wouldn't say it's certain that the Democrats lose 6 seats (which is what the GOP would need to have a majority in the Senate, since Biden will be VP until '17).

[Ogre Mage]

On the Democratic side the seats I am most concerned about are:  South Dakota, Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina and to somewhat lesser degree Arkansas.

[RogueBeaver]

Dem: What Ogre said.

GOP: Maine automatically flips if Collins retires. Otherwise no worries.

[badgate]

Ogre - Sen Pryor is at 53% approval in AR

[Blue3]

On the Democratic side the seats I am most concerned about are:  South Dakota, Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina and to somewhat lesser degree Arkansas.

So, then it looks like the Democrats keep the Senate in '14 too.

And who knows which "safe" Republicans are replaced by crazies in the primaries, like Mourdock/Akin/Angle/O'Donnell/Miller/etc.

[RogueBeaver]

All the incumbent Republicans are in ruby-red states. Only one who's almost certainly getting a primary (which may not necessarily be successful) is Graham in SC.

[Blue3]

All the incumbent Republicans are in ruby-red states. Only one who's almost certainly getting a primary (which may not necessarily be successful) is Graham in SC.

There's talk of a primary challenge against McConnell too.

[Ogre Mage]

Ogre - Sen Pryor is at 53% approval in AR

Yes, that's why I'm less worried about Pryor.  But Scott Brown and Lincoln Chafee also had good approvals in states where the opposing party was dominant.

On the Democratic side the seats I am most concerned about are:  South Dakota, Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina and to somewhat lesser degree Arkansas.

So, then it looks like the Democrats keep the Senate in '14 too.

I hope so.  But my list does not take possible retirements into account.  We'll have to wait and see.  

[RogueBeaver]

Alaska: LG Treadwell seems more likely to run than Parnell.

Arkansas: Griffin and Cotton will decide between themselves who's running for what.

Illinois: Durbin is leaning towards running, so Safe D and the talented Pubs either stay put or run for guv.

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=781B299D-2451-4370-95CA-5C2E5A770B7D

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

I think Kentucky is a potential pick-up opportunity if we can get a top-tier candidate to run against McConnell. Would be glorious to take him out.

[RogueBeaver]

McConnell won in 2008, he's not losing in a midterm year. As TNF can attest, many people like his seniority and the pork he brings back home. Plus he has a massive political operation (recently hired Paul's COS) and has been very proactive in snuffing out the first hint of a challenge.

[Cryptic]

McConnell won in 2008, he's not losing in a midterm year. As TNF can attest, many people like his seniority and the pork he brings back home. Plus he has a massive political operation (recently hired Paul's COS) and has been very proactive in snuffing out the first hint of a challenge.

The points you make are true, but I wouldn't be so quick to rule out a Democratic win in Kentucky.  I think we can pull it off with the right candidate. 

[politicallefty]

Chandler's loss in Kentucky doesn't make me feel very optimistic about the future of Democrats in the state. However, depending on the political environment in 2014, I wonder how the state may perform with the significant drag from the top of the ticket. At the least, we can hopefully scare McConnell and make the race competitive. It would require a very strong candidate. Is there any chance Steve Beshear runs?

[traininthedistance]

On the Democratic side the seats I am most concerned about are:  South Dakota, Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina and to somewhat lesser degree Arkansas.

Strangely enough, Alaska is the seat here I am least worried about.

On the other hand, I expect that Pryor will be a goner no matter how popular he is.  The others all have a chance of hanging on.  Hopefully we can flip Maine at least, to make up for the three or four seats we're likely to lose here.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Democrats
Alaska
Minnesota
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Oregon

Republicans
Georgia (but still a long shot for Democrats)
Kentucky
Maine

[Ogre Mage]

Jeff Merkley's reelection isn't a gimme, but based on current information he isn't in major trouble.  His general incumbent strength and approvals are only lukewarm, similar to Kay Hagan.  But Merkley is in a state considerably more favorable to Democrats.  Obama won Oregon 54-42.  Democrats hold all partisan statewide offices.  And the OR GOP does not have much of a bench.

Perhaps Merkley will run a very poor reelection campaign or have a scandal or 2014 will turn into a Republican wave.  But in the absence of that I would be very surprised if he lost.  I would probably put him in the same category with Mark Udall, Jeanne Shaheen and Al Franken -- potentially competitive but at the moment those incumbents look tough to beat.