MO: Akin could really blow this

[True Federalist]

Intrade now has McCaskill narrowly favored to hold the seat.

Idiots.  Even if Akin stays in, McCaskill winning isn't a sure thing.

I said "narrowly favored", not "sure thing".

For Intrade to have changed so much, there must be a lot of people thinking Akin will stay in and bomb.  McCaskill should not be narrowly favored.  Akin is more likely than not to leave, it's just a question of how long and on what terms, and as I said, even if he did stay on the ballot, he might still pull this off.

Even if there's a replacement candidate who the party can agree on, it's not a certainty that that person would be able to get their act together for a solid senate campaign from scratch.  So I don't think Akin dropping out means definite GOP pickup (not that it was a definite GOP pickup even before Akin made the gaffe).  Anyway, one's assessment of the race depends heavily on how high one rates the chances of Akin dropping out, which there's probably a fair amount of disagreement over.

Anyway, as of right now, the Intrade prices have pulled back to an exact 50/50 tie.

Akin was the weakest of the three contenders in the primary.  He won because the other two were busy fighting each other and McCaskill's successful criticism of him as too conservative so as to increase his appeal to primary voters.  So long as the MO GOP doesn't nominate someone crazy (and it won't) as the replacement, ey will do better than Akin.

[Keystone Phil]

Report that Paul Ryan called Akin yesterday. Source says it was "not a brief call." Ryan apparently didn't ask him to drop out...which I don't buy.

[Progressive Realist]

So Akin has apologized.

Of course, we still don't know if the apology was legitimate or forcible.

[Supersonic]

As an example of just how big this is, the BBC, which rarely talks about US Politics, had Akin's comments as one of the lead headline stories for the six o'clock news. I just checked a second ago and they're doing an extended interview with their US correspondents over just how damaging Akin's remarks were.

[RogueBeaver]

Romney has now called on Akin to get out, for what little that's worth.

[Talleyrand]

As an example of just how big this is, the BBC, which rarely talks about US Politics, had Akin's comments as one of the lead headline stories for the six o'clock news. I just checked a second ago and they're doing an extended interview with their US correspondents over just how damaging Akin's remarks were.

I originally saw heard about this controversy as one of the top six BBC stories at the airport.

Romney has now called on Akin to get out, for what little that's worth.

I actually think it's worth quite a bit. Now I think he may actually leave the race. Having your party's presidential candidate calling for you to get out is close to the last straw.

[RogueBeaver]

He's on Hannity now and apparently name-checked some famous Missourians who were products of rape-induced pregnancy. Getting worse every day.

[Thomas D]

He's on Hannity now and apparently name-checked some famous Missourians who were products of rape-induced pregnancy. Getting worse every day.

Aw that's not good.

[RogueBeaver]

First deadline has passed.

[ag]

He's on Hannity now and apparently name-checked some famous Missourians who were products of rape-induced pregnancy. Getting worse every day.

Wow!

[Kevin]

First deadline has passed.

What happens then if Akin drops out since the deadline has already passed?

If we can recall, MO Democrats in 2000 faced a similar problem. However, one of a diffrent circumstance's where they lost their Senatorial senatorial candidate after the deadline to replace their name had passed. Although the candidate who was Governor Carnahan had died in a plane crash, but his name still remained on the ballot.

Is this going to be the same case when Akin finally throws in the towel or can the GOP fully remove his name from any assocation with this race?

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There is another deadline for the same thing to be done, but by court order. I don't know when that deadline is. Some have mentioned Sept 25th, so that may be the absolute final deadline to get rid of him.

[RogueBeaver]

Sept. 25 is that deadline.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

He's on Hannity now and apparently name-checked some famous Missourians who were products of rape-induced pregnancy. Getting worse every day.

Haha, he really did that?

[Link]

At least he recanted very quickly.

The laws of physics do not allow you to "recant" such a statement.

Am I the only one who thinks this is a massive overreaction to what he said?

yes.

He is a 60 something year old man with two daughters.  He makes six figures/year.  He has access to the library of Congress.  He sits on the House SCIENCE committee.  How could he make such a statement?  How?  I guess we should blame the teachers' unions for him not learning how a vagina works.

[RogueBeaver]

Huck is 100% behind Akin.

http://thepage.time.com/2012/08/23/huckabee-goes-all-in-for-akin/

[Clinton1996]

New Rasmussen Poll. McCaskill up 10 points 48-38. Last poll in June had Akin up 3.

[mondale84]

Safe Akin. This controversy will low over in a couple of weeks and Akin will easily beat McCaskill. This is Missouri and I see no reason for any of the socons (basically all of Akin's base) to change their votes based on this. And the fact that Huckabee is supporting Akin helps him A LOT.

[Link]

Huck is 100% behind Akin.

So Huckabee signals he has no interest in a presidential run.  I don't blame him.  That private sector money is too good.  Why hassle with the press and all that responsibility.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

According to Mason Dixon, a majority of those who still support Akin against McCaskill want him to withdraw. Amongst those undecided, 67% want him to withdraw.

It is time for a thread title change "Akin really has blown this!"

[Gravis Marketing]

According to Mason Dixon, a majority of those who still support Akin against McCaskill want him to withdraw. Amongst those undecided, 67% want him to withdraw.

It is time for a thread title change "Akin really has blown this!"

I was going to change it, but after Rand Paul won, I refuse to believe McCaskill has better than 60% odds of winning.

[JulioMadrid]

Safe Akin. This controversy will low over in a couple of weeks and Akin will easily beat McCaskill. This is Missouri and I see no reason for any of the socons (basically all of Akin's base) to change their votes based on this. And the fact that Huckabee is supporting Akin helps him A LOT.

Are you trying not to sound like a troll?

[Wolfentoad]

Safe Akin. This controversy will low over in a couple of weeks and Akin will easily beat McCaskill. This is Missouri and I see no reason for any of the socons (basically all of Akin's base) to change their votes based on this. And the fact that Huckabee is supporting Akin helps him A LOT.

LOL!

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

According to Mason Dixon, a majority of those who still support Akin against McCaskill want him to withdraw. Amongst those undecided, 67% want him to withdraw.

It is time for a thread title change "Akin really has blown this!"

I was going to change it, but after Rand Paul won, I refuse to believe McCaskill has better than 60% odds of winning.

I just don't see how her chances are less then 90%. You have to look at this man's history and he is a walking gaffe-bomb thrower. He alone will serve to remind people, more or less what McCaskill will be doing with all the windfall of donations she will likely be receiving. The only way for Akin to come back is to keep his head down and hope people forgive/forget about him. His history tells me he doesn't possess the ability to do that at all.

[Vote UKIP!]

PPP has Akin and McCaskill at a virtual dead heat, with Akin at 44% and McCaskill at 45 %. Still, since triple-P is practically James Carville, I'm rather dubious about this poll's results, considering how other polls have a much larger gap between the two. In fact, I think it would be in PPP's interest to give Akin false hope in order to keep him in the race. We'll have to see...

http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2012/aug/30/poll-akin-mccaskill-race-still-tossup/