MO: Akin could really blow this

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

     This may be the worst campaign gaffe since George Allen in 2006.

[Jayhawker]

You'd think a campaign in such desperation mode would use spell check!

[Keystone Phil]

You'd think a campaign in such desperation mode would use spell check!

...that's the card Akin is playing? Really? Sorry but I don't think donors are going to make the connection. Too loose.

[TJ in Wisco]

I wonder how many people are donating to both Akin and the "corrupt party bosses"

[BigSkyBob]

You'd think a campaign in such desperation mode would use spell check!

...that's the card Akin is playing? Really? Sorry but I don't think donors are going to make the connection. Too loose.

If Republican rank-and-file cede their right to pick nominees to the establishment in Washington, then Charlie Crist will be the type of "Republican" they select. The seemlessness of Crist's transition from "Republican" to "Independent" to liberal Democrat ought to be an eyeopener to the rank-and-file.

[Keystone Phil]

You'd think a campaign in such desperation mode would use spell check!

...that's the card Akin is playing? Really? Sorry but I don't think donors are going to make the connection. Too loose.

If Republican rank-and-file cede their right to pick nominees to the establishment in Washington, then Charlie Crist will be the type of "Republican" they select. The seemlessness of Crist's transition from "Republican" to "Independent" to liberal Democrat ought to be an eyeopener to the rank-and-file.

I'm not disagreeing that Crist/Crist types are typically the choices of the bosses and that the rank and file members shouldn't cede their right to choose (look who you're talking to here). I'm questioning the use of the Crist example as a contribution strategy. I just don't think people are going to make the connection (even politically saavy donors in Missouri).

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

You'd think a campaign in such desperation mode would use spell check!

You'd think that the "Christian" Todd Akin would be able to spot that, spell check or no!

[BigSkyBob]

You'd think a campaign in such desperation mode would use spell check!

What pray tell would the spellchecker flag?

[Nhoj]

You'd think a campaign in such desperation mode would use spell check!

Spell check is probably what made the mistake.

[greenforest32]

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/newt-gingrich-fundraising-for-todd-akin-monday/

Is Akin really staying in the race?

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/newt-gingrich-fundraising-for-todd-akin-monday/

Is Akin really staying in the race?

I think it's safe to say he is at this point. Pretty hilarious.

[Keystone Phil]

I think it's been clear for awhile that he's staying in...

[Mister Twister]

Today is the final deadline for Akin to get out....

[sg0508]

The scary thing is, Akin may still win this.

[Talleyrand]

The scary thing is, Akin may still win this.

I'd put his chances at about 35%. A clear chance, but he's still an underdog atm.

[J. J.]

The scary thing is, Akin may still win this.

I'd put his chances at about 35%. A clear chance, but he's still an underdog atm.

He's still the underdog, but his gaffs have not been fatal.  He's closing. 

[Jayhawker]

I'm seriously getting an Intrade account just so I can buy Akin.

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

I'm seriously getting an Intrade account just so I can buy Akin.

What's his money?

Yeah I can still see him pulling it out eventually, though McCaskill's chances are probably around 70% and increasing.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

The scary thing is, Akin may still win this.

I'd put his chances at about 35%. A clear chance, but he's still an underdog atm.

He's still the underdog, but his gaffs have not been fatal.  He's closing. 

Where's the evidence of that?

[© Tweed the Younger]

The scary thing is, Akin may still win this.

I'd put his chances at about 35%. A clear chance, but he's still an underdog atm.

He's still the underdog, but his gaffs have not been fatal.  He's closing. 

Where's the evidence of that?

JJ's fourth rule of elections.

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

It's difficult for me to imagine McCaskill winning if most actors within the national party decide to reconcile with Akin. Democrats could probably use that turnaround to some advantage nationally, but I don't see McCaskill retaining her edge unless Akin remains mostly discredited as a candidate.

[Lief]

Akin, still a sexist creep: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/27/akin-mccaskill-more-ladylike-in-last-election/

[J. J.]

The scary thing is, Akin may still win this.

I'd put his chances at about 35%. A clear chance, but he's still an underdog atm.

He's still the underdog, but his gaffs have not been fatal.  He's closing. 

Where's the evidence of that?

The polls that we're listing under the polling section. 

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2012/polls.php?fips=29&class=1

We're now listing it as a tossup (though I'd question the R+1)

J. J's Fourth Rule of Elections:  Read the current polling before commenting on it.

[Landslide Lyndon]

J. J's Fourth Rule of Elections:  Read the current polling before commenting on it.

Px's firtst rule of elections: follow your own goddamn rules if you want any of us to take you seriously.

[J. J.]

J. J's Fourth Rule of Elections:  Read the current polling before commenting on it.

Px's firtst rule of elections: follow your own goddamn rules if you want any of us to take you seriously.

Let me see if I can explain this to you Lyndon.

Late August, Rasmussen had Akin down by 10.  In September, Rasmussen had him down by 6.  That means that Akin is "closing."  See how that works?


All of that (including a Chilenski poll, that I don't really trust) is posted on the polling section that I previously linked.   If you click the link, you can read it for yourself.  You have have to move that little arrow over the link and click.

If you do that, you will notice that MO is now gray.  That is the color of a toss up; that means MO is closer (even though that is partly based on a poll I don't really trust).  I didn't change the color; I didn't take the poll. 

I was, in fact, rather surprised it was closing (and I don't trust that one poll).  Still, I looked at it, since when I first looked at the map, it lighter than the other states a few day ago.  I was very much surprised when someone questioned that the race was closing when the data said it was closing.