MO: Akin could really blow this

[Хahar 🤔]

Am I the only one who thinks this is a massive overreaction to what he said? I mean, it was stupid, but saying stupid things happens all the time in politics. The actual text of what he said wasn't that bad. I guess if you're using as a proxy for a pattern it's ok.

It's hard to think of many things that would be worse.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Akin is toast politically if he drops out.  The only hope for his personal political future is to stay in and dare the establishment to stay on the sidelines.  If he thinks this has a chance to blow over, he'll stay.

[RogueBeaver]

Akin is toast politically if he drops out.  The only hope for his personal political future is to stay in and dare the establishment to stay on the sidelines.  If he thinks this has a chance to blow over, he'll stay.

He's toast politically if he stays in because then a) McCaskill coasts into the Senate b) he's vacating his House seat to run. So he's unemployed now or in January.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Am I the only one who thinks this is a massive overreaction to what he said? I mean, it was stupid, but saying stupid things happens all the time in politics. The actual text of what he said wasn't that bad. I guess if you're using as a proxy for a pattern it's ok.

This isn't a Biden-level gaffe. This is macaca-level.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So this will be the ... fourth? Senate race the Tea Party has cost the Republicans?  Thanks, guys...

It is very difficult to call him the Tea Party candidate and thus attribute his nomination to him. If anything he is a far-right, establishment, socially conservative Congressmen of 12 years. Brunner got the backing of most of the TP groups, while Steelman got Sarah Palin's endorsement. Brunner was a businessman and Steelman had previously challenged the establishment choice in the 2008 GOP Gubernatorial primary to see who would lose to Jay Nixon.

Also, he followed the Fischer, Thompson, "He who throws the least mud near the election wins" model. He was third in the polls for months and down in the teens until just two weeks prior to the election. This is one case where the TP would have saved us a seat.

Akin is a member of the Tea Party Caucus, FWIW.

Of course, he is obviously a far right conservative and engratiating himself with the latest movement of the base suits his interests. But my point wasn't that he is not far right, he most certainly is. My point was this was a primary of three TP candidates, two of which had better claim to the title then he did. Thus the one difference to Colorado, is that it isn't possible to blame the TP for scuddling this seat like could be said of Indiana if things go badly there.

[You kip if you want to...]

Am I the only one who thinks this is a massive overreaction to what he said? I mean, it was stupid, but saying stupid things happens all the time in politics. The actual text of what he said wasn't that bad. I guess if you're using as a proxy for a pattern it's ok.

This isn't a Biden-level gaffe. This is macaca-level.

Palin-level.


Just changed my prediction from GOP-tossup to lean Dem btw.

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade now has McCaskill narrowly favored to hold the seat.

NRO on possible replacements if Akin quits:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/314512/mo-republican-wagner-deltalentdel-schweich-being-talked-about-akin-replacements-katrin

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[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Ann Wagner is not that much of a winner either to tell you the truth. Does anyone remember her bid for RNC chair her comments during that?

Talent would be my choice, followed by Steelman or Graves. The best choice would probably be a women in the aftermath of what has happened so with Talent out, my pick is once again Steelman.

All this matters not, unless Akin gets out. I am still very skeptical of him doing so. 

[CultureKing]

Well, this has been rather fun to watch. Though honestly there are a number of similar comments that have been made over the years by GOP (and democrat) congressmen that I find to be similarly offensive and yet have not resulted in the same sort of backlash.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Well, this has been rather fun to watch. Though honestly there are a number of similar comments that have been made over the years by GOP (and democrat) congressmen that I find to be similarly offensive and yet have not resulted in the same sort of backlash.

They don't want a repeat of Colorado. Especially after Reid's tax accusations, which makes them hunger for the Senate majority even more.

[krazen1211]

Well, this has been rather fun to watch. Though honestly there are a number of similar comments that have been made over the years by GOP (and democrat) congressmen that I find to be similarly offensive and yet have not resulted in the same sort of backlash.

That's because Congressmen aren't Senators.

[7,052,770]

So this will be the ... fourth? Senate race the Tea Party has cost the Republicans?  Thanks, guys...

It is very difficult to call him the Tea Party candidate and thus attribute his nomination to him. If anything he is a far-right, establishment, socially conservative Congressmen of 12 years. Brunner got the backing of most of the TP groups, while Steelman got Sarah Palin's endorsement. Brunner was a businessman and Steelman had previously challenged the establishment choice in the 2008 GOP Gubernatorial primary to see who would lose to Jay Nixon.

Also, he followed the Fischer, Thompson, "He who throws the least mud near the election wins" model. He was third in the polls for months and down in the teens until just two weeks prior to the election. This is one case where the TP would have saved us a seat.

Akin is a member of the Tea Party Caucus, FWIW.

Of course, he is obviously a far right conservative and engratiating himself with the latest movement of the base suits his interests. But my point wasn't that he is not far right, he most certainly is. My point was this was a primary of three TP candidates, two of which had better claim to the title then he did. Thus the one difference to Colorado, is that it isn't possible to blame the TP for scuddling this seat like could be said of Indiana if things go badly there.

Regardless of semantics, the point I was trying to make was that if the Tea Party had never formally organized, and instead just been reflected in the mood of the electorate, Republicans would probably have the seats in Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado, and be a clear favorite in Missouri this year rather than a clear underdog.

I won't complain though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So this will be the ... fourth? Senate race the Tea Party has cost the Republicans?  Thanks, guys...

It is very difficult to call him the Tea Party candidate and thus attribute his nomination to him. If anything he is a far-right, establishment, socially conservative Congressmen of 12 years. Brunner got the backing of most of the TP groups, while Steelman got Sarah Palin's endorsement. Brunner was a businessman and Steelman had previously challenged the establishment choice in the 2008 GOP Gubernatorial primary to see who would lose to Jay Nixon.

Also, he followed the Fischer, Thompson, "He who throws the least mud near the election wins" model. He was third in the polls for months and down in the teens until just two weeks prior to the election. This is one case where the TP would have saved us a seat.

Akin is a member of the Tea Party Caucus, FWIW.

Of course, he is obviously a far right conservative and engratiating himself with the latest movement of the base suits his interests. But my point wasn't that he is not far right, he most certainly is. My point was this was a primary of three TP candidates, two of which had better claim to the title then he did. Thus the one difference to Colorado, is that it isn't possible to blame the TP for scuddling this seat like could be said of Indiana if things go badly there.

Regardless of semantics, the point I was trying to make was that if the Tea Party had never formally organized, and instead just been reflected in the mood of the electorate, Republicans would probably have the seats in Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado, and be a clear favorite in Missouri this year rather than a clear underdog.

I won't complain though.

How so? Wouldn't Akin have just been the establishment candidate and frontrunner in the primary from the start? He has the So-Cons, he has been in Congress for more then a decade, and establishment most certainly wouldn't have backed Steelman or even Brunner.

All the groups, organization and people associated with the TP supported either Steelman or Brunner. So I don't see how "The organizing of the TP" had an impact on this primary. There is no link as all those organizations backed Akin's opponents. And more to the point, he didn't follow the TP insurgent path to victory as much as the Fischer/Thompson path whereby the guy throwing the least mud right before the election wins, rather than the most conservative candidate (Thompson hardly could be called such). Such a trend is more than likely a reaction to the hard edged politics and negativity that defined the TP era of 2009-2011.

Your point seems to boil down to the old argument that all the GOP duds originated with the TP, which is completely ridiculous. Even the "blame the TP" meme only really works with one of the three 2010 defeats you mentioned and that is Delaware. In Nevada, another candidate collapsed and another didn't get off the ground, leaving Angle, unknown (espeically her negative qualities) to most of state, as pretty much the last candidate standing as much as a TP insurgent. There is no guarrantee that any of the others could have even stood up to Reid any better then she did as they all had issues.  In Colorado, Norton was vulnerable because she was uninspiring and many viewed her as a puppet of higher powers in the state. She may have lost the general as well but for different reasons then Buck did.

Unless you can show me where the TP enabled Akin to beat a more establishment candidate in the MO primary, your point doesn't work. There were no "more establishment" type candidates in the race then himself. And while he was a TP candidate by self affiliation, he had the least claim to that title of the three candidates.

[Mr. Morden]

Just putting it out there, but if Akin made these comments in 2004, would the reaction by the GOP be the same? T'was the height of the religious right after all, and FRC are defending him now.

This wouldn't have happened in 2004 because there was no Youtube, no Twitter, no social media.  It just wouldn't have blown up to the same extent.

[CultureKing]

Well, this has been rather fun to watch. Though honestly there are a number of similar comments that have been made over the years by GOP (and democrat) congressmen that I find to be similarly offensive and yet have not resulted in the same sort of backlash.

That's because Congressmen aren't Senators.

Ah... I meant legislators, my bad.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Intrade now has McCaskill narrowly favored to hold the seat.

Idiots.  Even if Akin stays in, McCaskill winning isn't a sure thing.

[RogueBeaver]

Now they have to strip him of seniority and assignments. Expelling him from caucus would result in a total loss of leverage.

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/08/todd-akin-im-not-quitting-ads.php

[Free Palestine]

What will happen if he drops out?  Will the Republicans select someone else, or will it just be Claire versus all the minor party candidates?

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade now has McCaskill narrowly favored to hold the seat.

Idiots.  Even if Akin stays in, McCaskill winning isn't a sure thing.

I said "narrowly favored", not "sure thing".

[RogueBeaver]

What will happen if he drops out?  Will the Republicans select someone else, or will it just be Claire versus all the minor party candidates?

The state party selects someone else.

[Phony Moderate]

The Onion really couldn't have written this.

[Eraserhead]

Intrade now has McCaskill narrowly favored to hold the seat.

Idiots.  Even if Akin stays in, McCaskill winning isn't a sure thing.

It'd certainly be a lot more likely than her not winning.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Intrade now has McCaskill narrowly favored to hold the seat.

Idiots.  Even if Akin stays in, McCaskill winning isn't a sure thing.

I said "narrowly favored", not "sure thing".

For Intrade to have changed so much, there must be a lot of people thinking Akin will stay in and bomb.  McCaskill should not be narrowly favored.  Akin is more likely than not to leave, it's just a question of how long and on what terms, and as I said, even if he did stay on the ballot, he might still pull this off.

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade now has McCaskill narrowly favored to hold the seat.

Idiots.  Even if Akin stays in, McCaskill winning isn't a sure thing.

I said "narrowly favored", not "sure thing".

For Intrade to have changed so much, there must be a lot of people thinking Akin will stay in and bomb.  McCaskill should not be narrowly favored.  Akin is more likely than not to leave, it's just a question of how long and on what terms, and as I said, even if he did stay on the ballot, he might still pull this off.

Even if there's a replacement candidate who the party can agree on, it's not a certainty that that person would be able to get their act together for a solid senate campaign from scratch.  So I don't think Akin dropping out means definite GOP pickup (not that it was a definite GOP pickup even before Akin made the gaffe).  Anyway, one's assessment of the race depends heavily on how high one rates the chances of Akin dropping out, which there's probably a fair amount of disagreement over.

Anyway, as of right now, the Intrade prices have pulled back to an exact 50/50 tie.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Intrade now has McCaskill narrowly favored to hold the seat.

Idiots.  Even if Akin stays in, McCaskill winning isn't a sure thing.

I said "narrowly favored", not "sure thing".

For Intrade to have changed so much, there must be a lot of people thinking Akin will stay in and bomb.  McCaskill should not be narrowly favored.  Akin is more likely than not to leave, it's just a question of how long and on what terms, and as I said, even if he did stay on the ballot, he might still pull this off.

Even if there's a replacement candidate who the party can agree on, it's not a certainty that that person would be able to get their act together for a solid senate campaign from scratch.  So I don't think Akin dropping out means definite GOP pickup (not that it was a definite GOP pickup even before Akin made the gaffe).  Anyway, one's assessment of the race depends heavily on how high one rates the chances of Akin dropping out, which there's probably a fair amount of disagreement over.

Anyway, as of right now, the Intrade prices have pulled back to an exact 50/50 tie.

Akin was the weakest of the three contenders in the primary.  He won because the other two were busy fighting each other and McCaskill's successful criticism of him as too conservative so as to increase his appeal to primary voters.  So long as the MO GOP doesn't nominate someone crazy (and it won't) as the replacement, ey will do better than Akin.