Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 21, 2014, 07:19:38 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  MO: Akin could really blow this
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 Print
Author Topic: MO: Akin could really blow this  (Read 9031 times)
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28721
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #125 on: August 20, 2012, 11:59:47 pm »
Ignore

Intrade now has McCaskill narrowly favored to hold the seat.

Idiots.  Even if Akin stays in, McCaskill winning isn't a sure thing.

I said "narrowly favored", not "sure thing".


For Intrade to have changed so much, there must be a lot of people thinking Akin will stay in and bomb.  McCaskill should not be narrowly favored.  Akin is more likely than not to leave, it's just a question of how long and on what terms, and as I said, even if he did stay on the ballot, he might still pull this off.

Even if there's a replacement candidate who the party can agree on, it's not a certainty that that person would be able to get their act together for a solid senate campaign from scratch.  So I don't think Akin dropping out means definite GOP pickup (not that it was a definite GOP pickup even before Akin made the gaffe).  Anyway, one's assessment of the race depends heavily on how high one rates the chances of Akin dropping out, which there's probably a fair amount of disagreement over.

Anyway, as of right now, the Intrade prices have pulled back to an exact 50/50 tie.


Akin was the weakest of the three contenders in the primary.  He won because the other two were busy fighting each other and McCaskill's successful criticism of him as too conservative so as to increase his appeal to primary voters.  So long as the MO GOP doesn't nominate someone crazy (and it won't) as the replacement, ey will do better than Akin.
Logged

People find meaning and redemption in the most unusual human connections. — Khaled Hosseini
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52494


View Profile
« Reply #126 on: August 21, 2012, 10:26:51 am »
Ignore

Report that Paul Ryan called Akin yesterday. Source says it was "not a brief call." Ryan apparently didn't ask him to drop out...which I don't buy.
Logged


Never any doubt.
They call me PR
Progressive Realist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5523
United States


View Profile
« Reply #127 on: August 21, 2012, 12:39:00 pm »
Ignore

So Akin has apologized.

Of course, we still don't know if the apology was legitimate or forcible.
Logged
Supersonic
SupersonicVenue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5104
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: 0.35

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #128 on: August 21, 2012, 02:35:48 pm »
Ignore

As an example of just how big this is, the BBC, which rarely talks about US Politics, had Akin's comments as one of the lead headline stories for the six o'clock news. I just checked a second ago and they're doing an extended interview with their US correspondents over just how damaging Akin's remarks were.
Logged

Being a Libertarian is like having a fever, either you sweat it out or you die from it.
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14879
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #129 on: August 21, 2012, 03:21:39 pm »
Ignore

Romney has now called on Akin to get out, for what little that's worth.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Talleyrand
TexasDemocrat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2990
United States


View Profile
« Reply #130 on: August 21, 2012, 03:26:43 pm »
Ignore

As an example of just how big this is, the BBC, which rarely talks about US Politics, had Akin's comments as one of the lead headline stories for the six o'clock news. I just checked a second ago and they're doing an extended interview with their US correspondents over just how damaging Akin's remarks were.

I originally saw heard about this controversy as one of the top six BBC stories at the airport.

Romney has now called on Akin to get out, for what little that's worth.

I actually think it's worth quite a bit. Now I think he may actually leave the race. Having your party's presidential candidate calling for you to get out is close to the last straw.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2012, 03:28:30 pm by TexasDemocrat »Logged

RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14879
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #131 on: August 21, 2012, 03:56:04 pm »
Ignore

He's on Hannity now and apparently name-checked some famous Missourians who were products of rape-induced pregnancy. Getting worse every day.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Thomas D
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3587
United States


View Profile
« Reply #132 on: August 21, 2012, 05:03:10 pm »
Ignore

He's on Hannity now and apparently name-checked some famous Missourians who were products of rape-induced pregnancy. Getting worse every day.

Aw that's not good.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14879
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #133 on: August 21, 2012, 05:04:06 pm »
Ignore

First deadline has passed.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
ag
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6506


View Profile
« Reply #134 on: August 21, 2012, 05:39:20 pm »
Ignore

He's on Hannity now and apparently name-checked some famous Missourians who were products of rape-induced pregnancy. Getting worse every day.

Wow!
Logged
Kevin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4904
United States


View Profile
« Reply #135 on: August 21, 2012, 05:49:32 pm »
Ignore

First deadline has passed.

What happens then if Akin drops out since the deadline has already passed?

If we can recall, MO Democrats in 2000 faced a similar problem. However, one of a diffrent circumstance's where they lost their Senatorial senatorial candidate after the deadline to replace their name had passed. Although the candidate who was Governor Carnahan had died in a plane crash, but his name still remained on the ballot.

Is this going to be the same case when Akin finally throws in the towel or can the GOP fully remove his name from any assocation with this race?
Logged



The People's Governor!
Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30164
United States


View Profile
« Reply #136 on: August 21, 2012, 05:51:44 pm »
Ignore

There is another deadline for the same thing to be done, but by court order. I don't know when that deadline is. Some have mentioned Sept 25th, so that may be the absolute final deadline to get rid of him.
Logged

He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14879
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #137 on: August 21, 2012, 06:01:39 pm »
Ignore

Sept. 25 is that deadline.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39309
United States


View Profile
« Reply #138 on: August 23, 2012, 12:15:24 pm »
Ignore

He's on Hannity now and apparently name-checked some famous Missourians who were products of rape-induced pregnancy. Getting worse every day.

Haha, he really did that?
Logged

Link
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3463
View Profile
« Reply #139 on: August 23, 2012, 12:41:10 pm »
Ignore

At least he recanted very quickly.

The laws of physics do not allow you to "recant" such a statement.

Am I the only one who thinks this is a massive overreaction to what he said?

yes.

He is a 60 something year old man with two daughters.  He makes six figures/year.  He has access to the library of Congress.  He sits on the House SCIENCE committee.  How could he make such a statement?  How?  I guess we should blame the teachers' unions for him not learning how a vagina works.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2012, 12:44:39 pm by Link »Logged

Insane quote of the year-

"Every aspect of life in America is worse than when he [Obama] took over" -Marco Rubio
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14879
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #140 on: August 23, 2012, 03:22:20 pm »
Ignore

Huck is 100% behind Akin.

http://thepage.time.com/2012/08/23/huckabee-goes-all-in-for-akin/
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Clinton1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3493
United States


View Profile
« Reply #141 on: August 23, 2012, 03:29:47 pm »
Ignore

New Rasmussen Poll. McCaskill up 10 points 48-38. Last poll in June had Akin up 3.
Logged

mondale84
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1316
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -3.30

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #142 on: August 23, 2012, 07:18:38 pm »
Ignore

Safe Akin. This controversy will low over in a couple of weeks and Akin will easily beat McCaskill. This is Missouri and I see no reason for any of the socons (basically all of Akin's base) to change their votes based on this. And the fact that Huckabee is supporting Akin helps him A LOT.
Logged


"There are no men like me. There's only me."
Link
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3463
View Profile
« Reply #143 on: August 23, 2012, 07:56:29 pm »
Ignore

Huck is 100% behind Akin.

So Huckabee signals he has no interest in a presidential run.  I don't blame him.  That private sector money is too good.  Why hassle with the press and all that responsibility.
Logged

Insane quote of the year-

"Every aspect of life in America is worse than when he [Obama] took over" -Marco Rubio
Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30164
United States


View Profile
« Reply #144 on: August 24, 2012, 11:18:58 pm »
Ignore

According to Mason Dixon, a majority of those who still support Akin against McCaskill want him to withdraw. Amongst those undecided, 67% want him to withdraw.

It is time for a thread title change "Akin really has blown this!"
Logged

He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



Gravis Marketing
brittain33
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13038


View Profile
« Reply #145 on: August 25, 2012, 07:23:25 am »
Ignore

According to Mason Dixon, a majority of those who still support Akin against McCaskill want him to withdraw. Amongst those undecided, 67% want him to withdraw.

It is time for a thread title change "Akin really has blown this!"

I was going to change it, but after Rand Paul won, I refuse to believe McCaskill has better than 60% odds of winning.
Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6691
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #146 on: August 25, 2012, 08:06:45 am »
Ignore

Safe Akin. This controversy will low over in a couple of weeks and Akin will easily beat McCaskill. This is Missouri and I see no reason for any of the socons (basically all of Akin's base) to change their votes based on this. And the fact that Huckabee is supporting Akin helps him A LOT.

Are you trying not to sound like a troll?
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Wolfentoad
wolfentoad66
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2160
Lebanon


View Profile
« Reply #147 on: August 25, 2012, 05:52:50 pm »
Ignore

Safe Akin. This controversy will low over in a couple of weeks and Akin will easily beat McCaskill. This is Missouri and I see no reason for any of the socons (basically all of Akin's base) to change their votes based on this. And the fact that Huckabee is supporting Akin helps him A LOT.

LOL!
Logged

I will stay home in this next election if we do not have a conservative tea party patriot. I have had enough RINOS
Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30164
United States


View Profile
« Reply #148 on: August 25, 2012, 10:42:10 pm »
Ignore

According to Mason Dixon, a majority of those who still support Akin against McCaskill want him to withdraw. Amongst those undecided, 67% want him to withdraw.

It is time for a thread title change "Akin really has blown this!"

I was going to change it, but after Rand Paul won, I refuse to believe McCaskill has better than 60% odds of winning.

I just don't see how her chances are less then 90%. You have to look at this man's history and he is a walking gaffe-bomb thrower. He alone will serve to remind people, more or less what McCaskill will be doing with all the windfall of donations she will likely be receiving. The only way for Akin to come back is to keep his head down and hope people forgive/forget about him. His history tells me he doesn't possess the ability to do that at all.
Logged

He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



Vote UKIP!
MasterSanders
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 999
United States


View Profile
« Reply #149 on: August 30, 2012, 08:16:54 pm »
Ignore

PPP has Akin and McCaskill at a virtual dead heat, with Akin at 44% and McCaskill at 45 %. Still, since triple-P is practically James Carville, I'm rather dubious about this poll's results, considering how other polls have a much larger gap between the two. In fact, I think it would be in PPP's interest to give Akin false hope in order to keep him in the race. We'll have to see...

http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2012/aug/30/poll-akin-mccaskill-race-still-tossup/
Logged

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines