Intrade senate races. . AZ better shot than VA. IN, NV better shot than WI, MT.

[User157088589849]

Current Intrade Figures for Democrats in the seante

Current probability of democrats winning the senate race in november. Whats going on in Arizona? Why so high. I dont see any polling firms have this down as a tossup. Plus Indiana and Nevada better chances than Montana, north dakora and wisconsin?

Michigan - 75%
Connecticut - 70%
Missouri - 59.8%
Florida - 55%
Ohio - 52.1%
Arizona - 49.5%
Virginia - 42.0%
Indiana - 40.0%
Nevada - 39.9%
Montana - 32.0%
North Dakota - 29.9%
Wisconsin - 26.0%

[Talleyrand]

I don't trust Intrade at all, and this just goes to hold up that belief. Many of these are very unrealistic.

[Miles]

They have Ohio as almost a 50/50 and Montana should be higher than Nevada.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Current Intrade Figures for Democrats in the seante

Current probability of democrats winning the senate race in november. Whats going on in Arizona? Why so high. I dont see any polling firms have this down as a tossup. Plus Indiana and Nevada better chances than Montana, north dakora and wisconsin?

Actually, except for Rasmussen, every pollster has it as either toss-up or Flake +2 or so.
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/az-senator-12
With Rasmussen polls averaged in Flake has a 5 point lead, but without them, they're both tied at 38 each.

[Mr. Morden]

There's no point even looking at the numbers on contracts where the volume is as low as some of these.  In the "Dems to win the Michigan senate race" market, only 2 shares have actually been traded.  Only 2 people have actually traded in that market, so saying that it reflects the wisdom of the market makes no sense.  Compare that to the presidential market.  "Dems to win the presidency in 2012" has had over 100,000 shares traded.