Will Akin stay or go?

[opebo]

Wouldn't that put MO-02 in play, if Akin is parachuted back in?  Granted, if that is the price it would be worth it, but still.

No its gerrymandered, he wouldn't lose there over this.

The more Pub burbs of St. Louis are that far "out there?"

I'd say so.  You're the redistricting fan - what does the new district 2 look like by the numbers?  I just looked at the map, and I surmise he'd have no trouble.. but I could be wrong.

[Beet]

So he is getting out? Source? Because on Intrade there is still an opportunity if this is nearly certain.

Update:

"Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) will hold a press conference somewhere in St. Louis County at 5:15 Eastern Standard time.

He will announce he's staying in the Missouri Senate race against Sen. Claire McCaskill (R-Mo.), multiple news outlets are reporting.

Akin updated his Facebook cover photo earlier on Friday to a photo that reads "We proved the party bosses wrong. Now, help us defeat Claire McCaskill" — a clear indication that, even when it was uploaded around 3 p.m. Washington time, Akin had plans to continue his fight."

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Thank you, based God.

[krazen1211]

Apparently there's a loophole in MO law which would allow Akin to swap races with Ann Wagner, who's the nominee in his CD.

It's not a loophole. Ann Wagner would exit her race in the same manner, and then each would get nominated by the party.

The only reason to give it to Wagner is to free up MO-02 for Akin to save his career.

Wouldn't that put MO-02 in play, if Akin is parachuted back in?  Granted, if that is the price it would be worth it, but still.

Not really. This is a R+7 or so district full of straight ticket southern Republicans. Why do you think Carnahan and Clay passed it up?

And even if it does, House seats are expendable.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Apparently there's a loophole in MO law which would allow Akin to swap races with Ann Wagner, who's the nominee in his CD.

It's not a loophole. Ann Wagner would exit her race in the same manner, and then each would get nominated by the party.

The only reason to give it to Wagner is to free up MO-02 for Akin to save his career.

Wouldn't that put MO-02 in play, if Akin is parachuted back in?  Granted, if that is the price it would be worth it, but still.

Not really. This is a R+7 or so district full of straight ticket southern Republicans. Why do you think Carnahan and Clay passed it up?

And even if it does, House seats are expendable.

krazen, keeping the spin to a minimum, what's your outlook on Ann Wagner? Do you know much about her?

[krazen1211]

krazen, keeping the spin to a minimum, what's your outlook on Ann Wagner? Do you know much about her?

Eh, roughly 50 years old, reasonably physically attractive. Former state party chair and ran for RNC chair, so she's pretty much the opposite of Akin in that regard. Former ambassador to Luxembourg.

Pro-life and pretty conservative down the line, but not a foot in mouth type, and there's enough PAC money on the sidelines. Which is probably enough to win this Senate seat in this state in this year.

If I recall she was considering the Senate seat until Akin vacated MO-02.