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| | |-+  Will Akin stay or go?
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Question: Will Todd Akin drop out?
Yes   -19 (34.5%)
No   -36 (65.5%)
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Total Voters: 55

Author Topic: Will Akin stay or go?  (Read 3291 times)
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #50 on: August 21, 2012, 01:07:11 pm »
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LOL at responding to a post assuming unreasonable wishful thinking by Akin by calling it unreasonable wishful thinking by McCaskill.

Your point is that Akin should stay in no matter what since he supposedly has nothing to lose. This is exactly the type of spin Claire would personally use because she knows she's competitive (at the very least) against Akin. Unless you honestly think she wants him to withdraw...

It's not "spin," it's my assessment of Akin's position. People in his position don't usually give up their one remaining asset. I don't see how saying Claire would say the same thing disproves the point, which is that Akin's interests have diverged greatly from those of the Republicans, and the Republicans made that happen.

What do you think his reason for stepping down would be, given that he's going into total obscurity if he does?

It doesn't disprove the point. I'm just saying it reads like something she would say and seems like a bit of wishful thinking to barely entertain why he'd drop out.

So he drops out and fades into obscurity. He would probably prefer that over the hell he will be given over the next few months.
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« Reply #51 on: August 21, 2012, 01:38:37 pm »
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This situation is reminiscent of Torricelli's withdrawal from the NJ Senate race which led to Lautenberg's return in 2002.  Recall that the deadline to replace a candidate in NJ had passed, but the State Supreme Court ruled that the Democrats were entitled to a candidate.  It was pretty clear to most that Torricelli withdrew because his poll numbers dropped with scandal charges in the air.

It is also a reminder of Tom Delay's attempt to get off the ballot in Texas in 2006 and have a replacement named.  He did get off the ballot, but Texas' strict laws would not allow a replacement to be named and a write in campaign for Shelley Sekula-Gibbs fell short by a 52% to 42% margin.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #52 on: August 21, 2012, 01:56:43 pm »
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If not then the seat should be deliberately jettisoned like with Ted Stevens 4 years ago.

Stevens barely lost. If he hadn't been jettisoned, maybe he would have won. I don't think the GOP would risk that again, whatever their current threats.
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« Reply #53 on: August 21, 2012, 05:45:36 pm »
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We are at the height of the scandal right now and I guess Akin will recover from this blunder if he stays in the race (which I find the most likely scenario). Akin's favorability ratings are probably going to improve if he manages to lead a flawless campaign in the next weeks while McCaskill's numbers are unlikely to change much. So Akin still has a good chance to win this race.

What makes you think that he possess the ability to run such a campaign? When he was third in the polls and way back from Steelman, his entire campaign was essentially based around him getting headlines for making one stupid statement after another to bring attention to himself. Worse still, he didn't even really win the primary by any particular action that he took, but instead won it as a result of the actions taken by Steelman, Brunner and McCaskil.
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« Reply #54 on: August 21, 2012, 06:46:05 pm »
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If not then the seat should be deliberately jettisoned like with Ted Stevens 4 years ago.

Stevens barely lost. If he hadn't been jettisoned, maybe he would have won. I don't think the GOP would risk that again, whatever their current threats.
Missouri isn't as Republican as Alaska, and doesn't have their current governor on the Republican ticket though.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #55 on: August 21, 2012, 07:11:23 pm »
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If not then the seat should be deliberately jettisoned like with Ted Stevens 4 years ago.

Stevens barely lost. If he hadn't been jettisoned, maybe he would have won. I don't think the GOP would risk that again, whatever their current threats.
Missouri isn't as Republican as Alaska, and doesn't have their current governor on the Republican ticket though.
Akin has not been indicted on seven counts of failing to report gifts, and hasn't trailed in most polls. He's still very much in the game, although not a shoo-in for victory.
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« Reply #56 on: August 21, 2012, 07:14:46 pm »
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Sharron Angle remained competitive too. For the next little while 'tis a waiting game, unfortunately.
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« Reply #57 on: August 21, 2012, 09:41:58 pm »
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Palin also called on Akin to quit and also urged Steelman to go third party. So instead of the headline being "Palin calls on Akin to quit" it's "Palin calls on Akin to quit, Ignorant of MO Election Law." Which shouldn't surprise anyone.
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« Reply #58 on: August 22, 2012, 12:18:43 am »
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Of course MO isn't AK. It may have a big lean to R but not AK level. Claire would probably easily win in a three way race with two Republicans. Akin should be able to hold on to most evangelicals, and that would be that.

Instead of a new candidate, I bet a new SuperPac will emerge in support of Akin that suddenly has a ton of undisclosed money. That way the establishment can pretend they arent backing Akin.

The Republicans have a better chance with Akin than a 3-way race.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #59 on: August 22, 2012, 12:43:45 am »
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We are at the height of the scandal right now and I guess Akin will recover from this blunder if he stays in the race (which I find the most likely scenario). Akin's favorability ratings are probably going to improve if he manages to lead a flawless campaign in the next weeks while McCaskill's numbers are unlikely to change much. So Akin still has a good chance to win this race.

What makes you think that he possess the ability to run such a campaign? When he was third in the polls and way back from Steelman, his entire campaign was essentially based around him getting headlines for making one stupid statement after another to bring attention to himself. Worse still, he didn't even really win the primary by any particular action that he took, but instead won it as a result of the actions taken by Steelman, Brunner and McCaskil.

This is why we should go back to the days of smoke-filled rooms to decide party nominees.  Using primaries as a method for selecting nominees is dumb.....though it does make things more interesting from a political spectator's point of view.
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« Reply #60 on: August 22, 2012, 07:35:57 am »
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Instead of a new candidate, I bet a new SuperPac will emerge in support of Akin that suddenly has a ton of undisclosed money. That way the establishment can pretend they arent backing Akin.

Exactly. The GOP isn't going to throw away a chance at this seat with a fight with Akin or a third party candidate. Expect the NRSC and Crossroads GPS to stop talking about Akin or acknowledging him, and then within a few weeks a new group funded by Koch, Adelson, or Friess called Prosperity Eagles for Freedom USA will start running ads against Liberal Claire McCaskill who wants to give your Medicare money to welfare deadbeats.
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« Reply #61 on: August 22, 2012, 07:58:05 am »
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Exactly. The GOP isn't going to throw away a chance at this seat with a fight with Akin or a third party candidate. Expect the NRSC and Crossroads GPS to stop talking about Akin or acknowledging him, and then within a few weeks a new group funded by Koch, Adelson, or Friess called Prosperity Eagles for Freedom USA will start running ads against Liberal Claire McCaskill who wants to give your Medicare money to welfare deadbeats.

That would be pretty funny for someone watching the ad, but I agree with the substance of this argument. They're not going to give up on Akin if he stays in the race. Right now, I just see seven realistic shots at GOP pickups. Out of these, only Nebraska is a sure thing. Wisconsin is pretty likely. I'd say Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana are about 50-50 or slightly higher, with Democrats having better candidates but the dynamics of the state favoring the Republican. George Allen is a very slight underdog in Virginia and Connie Mack can win in Florida, though it'll be fairly tough.

I don't buy Ohio, Hawaii, Michigan, and Michigan being real opportunities for a gain at this point in time. I'm also pretty doubtful Wilson can win in New Mexico without a wave. Heinrich is a well-liked and strong candidate in a Democratic-leaning state, and he's going to have to make a serious slip-up for her to have a chance, although the margin won't be double digits either way.
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Kevin
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« Reply #62 on: August 22, 2012, 08:58:19 am »
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Akin is opening the door to a possible exit from the race.

http://www.karnnewsradio.com/rssItem.asp?feedid=112&itemid=29896373
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« Reply #63 on: August 22, 2012, 09:08:33 am »
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We are at the height of the scandal right now and I guess Akin will recover from this blunder if he stays in the race (which I find the most likely scenario). Akin's favorability ratings are probably going to improve if he manages to lead a flawless campaign in the next weeks while McCaskill's numbers are unlikely to change much. So Akin still has a good chance to win this race.

What makes you think that he possess the ability to run such a campaign? When he was third in the polls and way back from Steelman, his entire campaign was essentially based around him getting headlines for making one stupid statement after another to bring attention to himself. Worse still, he didn't even really win the primary by any particular action that he took, but instead won it as a result of the actions taken by Steelman, Brunner and McCaskil.

Maybe I overestimate Akin's ability to learn from mistakes but I guess the outrage his latest statement caused will make him a lot more careful in the future. The stupid things he said in the primary didn't have any negative impact on his campaign but the rape remarks certainly had - maybe this was the wake up call Akin needed. "A flawless campaign" in his case probably means that all he has to do is stick very closely to a few keywords and avoid situations where he could run into trouble so maybe he shouldn't give too many interviews anymore. After all, due to McCaskill's unpopularity in Missouri, Akin just has to be perceived as a more or less acceptable alternative, he doesn't need to be loved by everyone.
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« Reply #64 on: August 22, 2012, 09:28:22 am »
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After all, due to McCaskill's unpopularity in Missouri, Akin just has to be perceived as a more or less acceptable alternative, he doesn't need to be loved by everyone.

Rape isn't something taken lightly over here. When your party is already involved in a War on Women, and you start trying to tell these women that they were not legitimately raped, you wouldn't be able to overcome that, especially against a female opponent. We've seen the GOP lose races because of this as recently as 2010 in Colorado.
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« Reply #65 on: August 22, 2012, 10:43:02 am »
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Apparently there's a loophole in MO law which would allow Akin to swap races with Ann Wagner, who's the nominee in his CD.
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« Reply #66 on: August 22, 2012, 12:18:49 pm »
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Akin is opening the door to a possible exit from the race.

http://www.karnnewsradio.com/rssItem.asp?feedid=112&itemid=29896373

I'm not seeing that part of it?
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« Reply #67 on: August 22, 2012, 02:10:15 pm »
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Apparently there's a loophole in MO law which would allow Akin to swap races with Ann Wagner, who's the nominee in his CD.

It's not a loophole. Ann Wagner would exit her race in the same manner, and then each would get nominated by the party.

The only reason to give it to Wagner is to free up MO-02 for Akin to save his career.
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« Reply #68 on: August 22, 2012, 05:34:46 pm »
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After all, due to McCaskill's unpopularity in Missouri, Akin just has to be perceived as a more or less acceptable alternative, he doesn't need to be loved by everyone.

Rape isn't something taken lightly over here. When your party is already involved in a War on Women, and you start trying to tell these women that they were not legitimately raped, you wouldn't be able to overcome that, especially against a female opponent. We've seen the GOP lose races because of this as recently as 2010 in Colorado.

Or at the very least successfully push people over the theshold of convincing them that such is really the case when it is not. Either way, the result is the same and the idiot in question loses.
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« Reply #69 on: August 23, 2012, 05:06:45 am »
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I wasn't expecting him to mess up so quickly. At this point I lean towards him dropping out next month.

Not that it will be because his positions are really out of the ordinary within the Republican party: http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2012/08/22/724331/chart-akins-views-on-womens-health-are-in-line-with-gop-party/
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« Reply #70 on: August 23, 2012, 12:07:42 pm »
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Definitely sounds like he's going to get out. Oh well.
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« Reply #71 on: August 24, 2012, 02:52:47 pm »
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« Reply #72 on: August 24, 2012, 03:17:47 pm »
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Apparently there's a loophole in MO law which would allow Akin to swap races with Ann Wagner, who's the nominee in his CD.

It's not a loophole. Ann Wagner would exit her race in the same manner, and then each would get nominated by the party.

The only reason to give it to Wagner is to free up MO-02 for Akin to save his career.

Wouldn't that put MO-02 in play, if Akin is parachuted back in?  Granted, if that is the price it would be worth it, but still.
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« Reply #73 on: August 24, 2012, 03:25:12 pm »
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Wouldn't that put MO-02 in play, if Akin is parachuted back in?  Granted, if that is the price it would be worth it, but still.

No its gerrymandered, he wouldn't lose there over this.
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« Reply #74 on: August 24, 2012, 03:26:38 pm »
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Wouldn't that put MO-02 in play, if Akin is parachuted back in?  Granted, if that is the price it would be worth it, but still.

No its gerrymandered, he wouldn't lose there over this.

The more Pub burbs of St. Louis are that far "out there?"
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