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Author Topic: Foster McCollum White Baydoun in Florida: Romney 54%, Obama 40%  (Read 1958 times)
MorningInAmerica
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« on: August 20, 2012, 05:56:27 pm »
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http://www.scribd.com/doc/103331632/FMWB-Fulmer-Associates-Aggregate-Polling-Study-Report-for-Florida-General-Election?secret_password=1zk6r9l2b6szas5ioh5
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State - Wide Aggregate Results (Weighted to projected age, gender & ethnicity of electorate, percentages do not all equal 100%)
 
1503 Respondents MOE +/- 2.53% Question 1:
 The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you more likely to vote for in the election?

(Barack Obama): 39.90%
(Mitt Romney): 54.46%
(Another candidate): 3.05%
(Undecided): 4.72%

So, uhh, yeah. Never heard of the firm, and I certainly don't believe Romney is leading by 14 in Florida. In fact, all of these numbers seem far too good (or far too bad, for some) to be true.

Nelson: 43%
Mack: 51%

58% are at least somewhat more likely to vote for Romney as a result of the Ryan pick. Just 36% are at least somewhat less likely.

54% support "the Ryan plan", in essence, while 44% do not (pg. 5).

Party ID is R+2, btw. And if you look further into the crosstabs, you see the age break-down is WAY out of whack, and VERY heavily skewed to the elderly. On the bright side, could mean that Ryan isn't hurting w/ seniors in Florida.


« Last Edit: August 21, 2012, 07:12:40 am by Tender Branson »Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
Likely Voter
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2012, 06:08:31 pm »
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what is with all these no-name polling outfits. There has been very little big polling outfit post Ryan polling. Maybe  a lot will come out right before the RNC to set the pre bounce baseline
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2012, 06:11:35 pm »
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Uh, no.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2012, 06:11:56 pm »
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I agree there's been shockingly little big-name post-Ryan pick polling. Where's Quinnipiac? ABC/WashPo? All the networks for that matter. CNN? Get on it pollsters.
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"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2012, 06:18:44 pm »
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I agree there's been shockingly little big-name post-Ryan pick polling. Where's Quinnipiac? ABC/WashPo? All the networks for that matter. CNN? Get on it pollsters.

 There has been hardly any polling the last 10 days. Only legitimate polling there has been shows a tied race in all swing states.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2012, 06:21:34 pm by pepper11 »Logged

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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2012, 07:50:28 pm »
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Not just decimals but hundreths!!! Just screams credibility.
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2012, 07:51:58 pm »
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Seems legit.
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2012, 08:19:31 pm »
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More legit than zogby
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Supersonic
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2012, 08:22:12 pm »
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More legit than zogby

Touch, haha.
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2012, 08:29:18 pm »
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Unknown company, probably junk.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2012, 08:32:24 pm »
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Seems legit.
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2012, 08:36:39 pm »
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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2012, 08:37:39 pm »
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Junk; though, at times, Rasmussen has posted similar numbers for the Senate race.
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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2012, 08:44:57 pm »
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Definitely seems realistic.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2012, 08:49:43 pm »
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Nate Silver calls this poll out for it's insane age break-down. But he does choose to include it in his forecast model. Read the bottom two or three paragraphs for his explanation why.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/20/aug-20-when-the-polling-gets-weird/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
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"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
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« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2012, 09:41:28 pm »
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It appears that the Pub version of the Jubilee is near. All you need to believe is that the Book of Revelations is inerrant.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2012, 12:14:15 am »

About this time 4 years ago, SurveyUSA released this:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=3720080908019

We know who actually won the state ... Wink
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2012, 12:21:23 am »
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Nate Silver calls this poll out for it's insane age break-down. But he does choose to include it in his forecast model. Read the bottom two or three paragraphs for his explanation why.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/20/aug-20-when-the-polling-gets-weird/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter


Well, even with this poll as the most recent poll, Romney is only up 2 points.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2012, 12:25:09 am »

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Question #8:

In Which Age Range Do You Fit?

1- Between 18 to 30 years old, 2- between 31 to 50 years old, 3- between 51 to 65 yearsold, 4- ages 66 and older

(Between 18 to 30 years old): 1.33%
(Between 31 to 50 years old): 7.65%
(Between 51 to 65 years old):  27.48%
(Ages 66 and older): 63.54%

WTF ?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2012, 12:28:25 am »

In the exit poll from 2008, about 22% of FL voters were 65 or older.

This poll has 64% older than 65.

It looks like they polled a retirement community.

I repeat:

WTF ?
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« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2012, 12:28:38 am »
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Quote
Question #8:

In Which Age Range Do You Fit?

1- Between 18 to 30 years old, 2- between 31 to 50 years old, 3- between 51 to 65 yearsold, 4- ages 66 and older

(Between 18 to 30 years old): 1.33%
(Between 31 to 50 years old): 7.65%
(Between 51 to 65 years old):  27.48%
(Ages 66 and older): 63.54%

WTF ?

LOL, this is a troll poll.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2012, 07:18:56 am »

Unlocked it, because the OP wrote a wall of complaint regarding this crap poll.
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« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2012, 08:59:45 am »
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These are the numbers we are converging towards, but I doubt we are there right now.

Brave yourselves, Obama youth: Huge backlash against Obama for those 30 and older is in the making with youthful apathy back on the rise as a result of the dismal economy.

Romney is a mediocre politician who happens to be in the right place at the right time. Picking the most marketable running mate in history is the icing on the cake, so to speak.

I will be gone for a while, but I'll be back. Don't tell me that I didn't warn you.
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« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2012, 09:16:10 am »
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These are the numbers we are converging towards, but I doubt we are there right now.

Brave yourselves, Obama youth: Huge backlash against Obama for those 30 and older is in the making with youthful apathy back on the rise as a result of the dismal economy.

You assume something that has no cause to happen. Sure, I have shown models of Obama landslides, but those all come with a little but important word -- if I could also create a model of a Presidential election that has Florida going 14% for Romney... basically, Reagan won Florida by 17% in 1980, and I figure that because Florida is about 3% more R than the US as a whole that would imply a 56-44 win for Romney.

But just as I would use the word if followed by qualifications that might seem absurdities for President Obama winning 450 or so electoral votes I would have to do much the same with a 56-44 scenario for Romney.

The GOP has nothing to offer but 'secret methods' to put the economy back on track. Maybe they are secret because they would offend too many sensibilities. We know that they include tax cuts for the super-rich to be paid for in higher taxes and reduced services for others. They include expanded expenditure on military weaponry. So what could be the secret stuff?

Further destruction of workers' rights. Sweetheart deals with crony capitalists to sell off the assets of the public sector while defaulting on services.

"Dismal economy"? I can imagine far worse. A return to the practices of the 1920s or earlier implies mandatory, unpaid overtime whose benefit goes entirely to elites while wearing down those who do the work.  Impose that along with means to ensure that there could never be any meaningful political opposition in the vote (like putting property qualifications on voting)... and the color "red" might suggest a vastly different sort of republic here.

A hint: you do not want to make Marxism-Leninism politically relevant in America. 
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« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2012, 09:19:36 am »
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Gee... even Politico thinks Romney is a mediocre politician. What if he is a mediocre president? :p

These are the numbers we are converging towards, but I doubt we are there right now.

Brave yourselves, Obama youth: Huge backlash against Obama for those 30 and older is in the making with youthful apathy back on the rise as a result of the dismal economy.

You assume something that has no cause to happen. Sure, I have shown models of Obama landslides, but those all come with a little but important word -- if I could also create a model of a Presidential election that has Florida going 14% for Romney... basically, Reagan won Florida by 17% in 1980, and I figure that because Florida is about 3% more R than the US as a whole that would imply a 56-44 win for Romney.

But just as I would use the word if followed by qualifications that might seem absurdities for President Obama winning 450 or so electoral votes I would have to do much the same with a 56-44 scenario for Romney.

The GOP has nothing to offer but 'secret methods' to put the economy back on track. Maybe they are secret because they would offend too many sensibilities. We know that they include tax cuts for the super-rich to be paid for in higher taxes and reduced services for others. They include expanded expenditure on military weaponry. So what could be the secret stuff?

Further destruction of workers' rights. Sweetheart deals with crony capitalists to sell off the assets of the public sector while defaulting on services.

"Dismal economy"? I can imagine far worse. A return to the practices of the 1920s or earlier implies mandatory, unpaid overtime whose benefit goes entirely to elites while wearing down those who do the work.  Impose that along with means to ensure that there could never be any meaningful political opposition in the vote (like putting property qualifications on voting)... and the color "red" might suggest a vastly different sort of republic here.

A hint: you do not want to make Marxism-Leninism politically relevant in America. 


....and with these sort of threats? I think you will be begging for someone as conservative as Obama 30 years from now.
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the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
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