Foster McCollum White Baydoun in Florida: Romney 54%, Obama 40%

[MorningInAmerica]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/103331632/FMWB-Fulmer-Associates-Aggregate-Polling-Study-Report-for-Florida-General-Election?secret_password=1zk6r9l2b6szas5ioh5

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So, uhh, yeah. Never heard of the firm, and I certainly don't believe Romney is leading by 14 in Florida. In fact, all of these numbers seem far too good (or far too bad, for some) to be true.

Nelson: 43%
Mack: 51%

58% are at least somewhat more likely to vote for Romney as a result of the Ryan pick. Just 36% are at least somewhat less likely.

54% support "the Ryan plan", in essence, while 44% do not (pg. 5).

Party ID is R+2, btw. And if you look further into the crosstabs, you see the age break-down is WAY out of whack, and VERY heavily skewed to the elderly. On the bright side, could mean that Ryan isn't hurting w/ seniors in Florida.

[MorningInAmerica]

I agree there's been shockingly little big-name post-Ryan pick polling. Where's Quinnipiac? ABC/WashPo? All the networks for that matter. CNN? Get on it pollsters.

[MorningInAmerica]

Nate Silver calls this poll out for it's insane age break-down. But he does choose to include it in his forecast model. Read the bottom two or three paragraphs for his explanation why.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/20/aug-20-when-the-polling-gets-weird/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[MorningInAmerica]

Tender Branson, I'm very grateful that you unlocked this thread, and thanks. Like I said, it is without question a junk poll based on its elderly sample alone. But given that we're not a poll aggregating site and thus have no "model" that this poll can throw-off, and since we're all largely agreeing nicely this is a major outlier, why not let the conversation continue.

Anywho, thanks again. And I'll edit the title to make it obvious to anyone who clicks here to check the sample before reading.

[MorningInAmerica]

A bit shocked to think this is the real Eric Foster, but the post is very well written, and done by someone who can at least pretend they know what they're talking about when it comes to polling.

Eric, I'd suggest you contact Nate Silver of the New York Times at FiveThirtyEight.com. He was quite critical of your poll yesterday, specifically due to your 66 year-old-and-up sample (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/20/aug-20-when-the-polling-gets-weird/). He's a well-known pollster ranker and analyzer, and has a fair amount of clout the field. If you hope to change hearts and minds about your poll, he'd be the place to start.

[MorningInAmerica]

Stop posting these unknown polls please.

Uhh, no. If they can be sourced, then I'll post them.