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Author Topic: MO-Sen (PPP): Akin in the lead  (Read 965 times)
krazen1211
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« on: August 20, 2012, 10:15:51 pm »
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Akin 44
McCaskill 43


Heh. PPP might be cooking the books of course.
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Svensson
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2012, 10:24:46 pm »
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Correction: race tied and slipping fast, as it goddamn well should be. If the Missouri GOP has any sense or decency within any bone in their self-righteous fundamentalist bodies, they'll have put Akin out of a career before sunset tomorrow.
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Harry
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2012, 10:25:31 pm »
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Not sure whether this is good or bad news.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2012, 10:31:03 pm »
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Correction: race tied and slipping fast, as it goddamn well should be. If the Missouri GOP has any sense or decency within any bone in their self-righteous fundamentalist bodies, they'll have put Akin out of a career before sunset tomorrow.


Same as the last PPP poll. Of course, 1 or both may be Junk Polls.
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2012, 10:35:04 pm »
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I ordinarly would also be calling krazen out on his spin here, but I wouldn't want to annoy Phil Tongue
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morgieb
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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2012, 10:35:46 pm »
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When was the poll taken?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2012, 10:37:01 pm »
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I ordinarly would also be calling krazen out on his spin here, but I wouldn't want to annoy Phil Tongue


What the heck did I spin?
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Scott
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2012, 10:39:09 pm »
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I ordinarly would also be calling krazen out on his spin here, but I wouldn't want to annoy Phil Tongue


What the heck did I spin?

Read the thread title.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2012, 10:40:24 pm »
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I ordinarly would also be calling krazen out on his spin here, but I wouldn't want to annoy Phil Tongue


What the heck did I spin?

Read the thread title.

PPP's twitter described Akin as leading.
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Scott
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2012, 10:45:04 pm »
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I ordinarly would also be calling krazen out on his spin here, but I wouldn't want to annoy Phil Tongue


What the heck did I spin?

Read the thread title.

PPP's twitter described Akin as leading.

Then maybe both you and PPP need to learn how margin of error works.

The race is tied.
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Meeker
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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2012, 10:48:11 pm »
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His favorable/unfavorables are 24-58 and yet he still leads. Hyperpartisanship at its finest.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2012, 10:57:18 pm »
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Love the Dem hackery here. Yes, a one point lead is essentially a tie but you mean to tell me that you guys haven't seen other candidates ahead by a point or two in the past and thought "Hey, so and so is leading" instead of immediately thinking it's tied? Give me a break. I must have missed the clamoring for the "Kaine ahead by two" threads to be renamed.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2012, 10:59:21 pm »
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Love the Dem hackery here. Yes, a one point lead is essentially a tie but you mean to tell me that you guys haven't seen other candidates ahead by a point or two in the past and thought "Hey, so and so is leading" instead of immediately thinking it's tied? Give me a break. I must have missed the clamoring for the "Kaine ahead by two" threads to be renamed.

Of course you know Phil, around here, shooting the messenger is the style.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/akin-44-mccaskill-43.html#more

Funnily enough, his numbers haven't budged since PPP's last poll in June (when Akin led 45-44%). What's miraculous is that Akin is leading despite a hugely unpopular 24/58% favorability rating. McCaskill has a poor 41/53% job rating. Wonder if this poll will silence a lot of the GOP bigwigs screaming for him to step aside.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2012, 11:02:26 pm by MorningInAmerica »Logged

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 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2012, 11:01:04 pm »
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With favorables like that, I don't see how he wins. He will face enormous downward pressure as he tries to get out of the mid 40's.
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2012, 12:05:56 am »
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With favorables like that, I don't see how he wins. He will face enormous downward pressure as he tries to get out of the mid 40's.

McCaskill doesn't have good favorables either, and Akin may be able to repair things enough to win in November.  If Akin had said this before the primary, he'd have been sunk of course, but he still has time.
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2012, 12:11:00 am »

That's a really pro-GOP sample from PPP (GOP+9).

But despite this, it's pretty shocking that Akin still leads among Independents after his comments.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2012, 05:05:34 am »
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A tremendous victory for the sanctity of RAPE!

Seriously though, I'm wondering if PPP is trolling a bit here and massaged their head-to-head numbers in order to help Akin look stronger than he is. Given the fact that they're Ds at the end of the day, it's not surprising that they'd want him to stick around. You're not going to win anything with favorables like that and the money will be cut off. And there's that sample that Tender posted for the poll. Umm, yeah. So I still think he's toast, one way or the other. This will give him a talking point to help get through the next few days though. "See, the latest poll shows that I can still win!" Very sneaky, PPP!

Now, let's see if Rasmussen comes out with a poll that has him trailing by 10 to counter this. Tongue
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2012, 05:27:08 am »
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Post-rape comments?

If so, then Jesus F. Christ.
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Holmes
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2012, 06:02:54 am »
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I always knew the good ol' state of Missourah would still back Akin.
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2012, 06:21:07 am »
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Scott Rasmussen must be burning with jealousy at PPP's ability to land on the perfect number to generate controversy.
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Miles
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« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2012, 09:32:25 am »
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Akin 44
McCaskill 43


Heh. PPP might be cooking the books of course.



#pwned.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2012, 09:57:51 am »
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How is that "owning" someone? Not to say that they are cooking the books but just because they say they aren't devious enough to do it doesn't mean they aren't doing it.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2012, 10:30:04 am »
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Akin 44
McCaskill 43


Heh. PPP might be cooking the books of course.



#pwned.

Whether they say they're "cooking the books or not," riddle me this....how in the world does Missouri go from a D+6 turnout in 2008 to a R+9 turnout in 2012. Miles is smart enough to know that that doesn't pass the smell test. Just because PPP says they're not being devious doesn't mean they aren't. And the fact that they enjoy people thinking they are devious certainly seems odd.

Ace of Spades points out the problem with their numbers here: http://minx.cc/?post=332101

Quote
Since PPP decided it can't help itself, I've done you all a service.
I went through their ridiculous R+9 sample and ONLY changed the D/R/I proportions to match previous elections, and an even turnout.
With R+9, PPP's headline screams Akin up by 1. It is an obvious, sick ploy to get this delusional Bio101 flunkie to stay in and cost us a seat.

Here are the real numbers:
If turnout in November matches 2008 (it won't):
McCaskill 49.25% Akin 39% (this is a D+6 turnout model)


If turnout in November is even, an incredible feat for the GOP considering heavy turnout in St Louis and Kansas City during an election year:
McCaskill 47% Akin 40%.


If turnout in November matches the best we have ever seen in the state (R+3 during 2010):
McCaskill 45% Akin 41%.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2012, 10:32:08 am by MorningInAmerica »Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
krazen1211
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« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2012, 10:39:52 am »
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Akin 44
McCaskill 43


Heh. PPP might be cooking the books of course.



#pwned.

Whether they say they're "cooking the books or not," riddle me this....how in the world does Missouri go from a D+6 turnout in 2008 to a R+9 turnout in 2012. Miles is smart enough to know that that doesn't pass the smell test. Just because PPP says they're not being devious doesn't mean they aren't. And the fact that they enjoy people thinking they are devious certainly seems odd.

Ace of Spades points out the problem with their numbers here: http://minx.cc/?post=332101

Quote
Since PPP decided it can't help itself, I've done you all a service.
I went through their ridiculous R+9 sample and ONLY changed the D/R/I proportions to match previous elections, and an even turnout.
With R+9, PPP's headline screams Akin up by 1. It is an obvious, sick ploy to get this delusional Bio101 flunkie to stay in and cost us a seat.

Here are the real numbers:
If turnout in November matches 2008 (it won't):
McCaskill 49.25% Akin 39% (this is a D+6 turnout model)


If turnout in November is even, an incredible feat for the GOP considering heavy turnout in St Louis and Kansas City during an election year:
McCaskill 47% Akin 40%.


If turnout in November matches the best we have ever seen in the state (R+3 during 2010):
McCaskill 45% Akin 41%.


PPP themselves had it at D+2 a couple months ago.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2012, 12:21:41 pm »
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I give PPP the benefit of the doubt that they arent cooking the books. However the whole poll itself is flawed. They cant get a good sample in one evening of calls on the first day of media coverage on this issue.
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