MO-Sen (PPP): Akin in the lead

[MorningInAmerica]

Love the Dem hackery here. Yes, a one point lead is essentially a tie but you mean to tell me that you guys haven't seen other candidates ahead by a point or two in the past and thought "Hey, so and so is leading" instead of immediately thinking it's tied? Give me a break. I must have missed the clamoring for the "Kaine ahead by two" threads to be renamed.

Of course you know Phil, around here, shooting the messenger is the style.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/akin-44-mccaskill-43.html#more

Funnily enough, his numbers haven't budged since PPP's last poll in June (when Akin led 45-44%). What's miraculous is that Akin is leading despite a hugely unpopular 24/58% favorability rating. McCaskill has a poor 41/53% job rating. Wonder if this poll will silence a lot of the GOP bigwigs screaming for him to step aside.

[MorningInAmerica]

Akin 44
McCaskill 43


Heh. PPP might be cooking the books of course.

#pwned.

Whether they say they're "cooking the books or not," riddle me this....how in the world does Missouri go from a D+6 turnout in 2008 to a R+9 turnout in 2012. Miles is smart enough to know that that doesn't pass the smell test. Just because PPP says they're not being devious doesn't mean they aren't. And the fact that they enjoy people thinking they are devious certainly seems odd.

Ace of Spades points out the problem with their numbers here: http://minx.cc/?post=332101

[quote]Since PPP decided it can't help itself, I've done you all a service.
I went through their ridiculous R+9 sample and ONLY changed the D/R/I proportions to match previous elections, and an even turnout.
With R+9, PPP's headline screams Akin up by 1. It is an obvious, sick ploy to get this delusional Bio101 flunkie to stay in and cost us a seat.

Here are the real numbers:
If turnout in November matches 2008 (it won't):
McCaskill 49.25% Akin 39% (this is a D+6 turnout model)

If turnout in November is even, an incredible feat for the GOP considering heavy turnout in St Louis and Kansas City during an election year:
McCaskill 47% Akin 40%.

If turnout in November matches the best we have ever seen in the state (R+3 during 2010):
McCaskill 45% Akin 41%.