Has the Culture War returned for 2012? And is the GOP on the losing side now?

[retromike22]

Watching the news today, I was having flashbacks of 1998-2000, when people were talking about "moral values" being so important after Bill Clinton's.. adventures. And also after Columbine, there was this massive effort to stop violent video games and certain songs, even though that had nothing to do with it. It kind of felt like some 1920s Southern Christian Great Awakening. So America had to elect the morally righteous George Bush to save us from the wrath of Bill Clinton's adventures.

Then Sept 11th happened and most of politics afterward 2001-2011 was concerned with foreign policy. Then the economic crisis of 2008 started and then economics as well as foreign policy (due to us still being in Iraq) were the main issues.

Then we left Iraq in 2010, Osama Bin Laden was killed in 2011 and suddenly foreign policy is such a small issue in this 2012 campaign. And now the economy is finally beginning to bounce back. I know it's better now, because now we have the luxury of being able to be distracted. Distracted by disagreement over cultural issues, such as Rep. Todd Akin's comment, the GOP's no rape exception on abortion, Santorum's crazy statement of the week during the primaries, the recent increase in discussing the legalization of marijuana, etc. Even this week Paul Ryan said that he's happy to "cling to guns and religion."

It feels like the Culture War is back. But this time it feels like the GOP is on the losing side. I'll use gay rights as an example. They lost that battle in the culture war, they're just like the Japanese soldiers on those islands that didn't know the war was over. Look at how it is now, gays can serve in the military, several states have legalized gay marriage, and every year the support for gay marriage increases. Does any social conservative actually believe that this will suddenly reverse? Each election cycle Republicans running for office become less conservative on it. From banning homosexuality, to allowing it to be legal but nothing else, to treating people with respect, to civil unions, and then, inevitably, they will support gay marriage simply because most Americans will in the future.

And I think that's what makes the Culture War different from how it was in the 1990s. The Millennium Generation (born 1982-2000) is so left wing on social issues, (as well as economic ones, see Occupy movement) that the conservative positions in the Culture War are on the losing side.

The Republican Party should just give up on social issues and evolve into the Libertarian Party if it wants to win with future voters. I honestly believe what's going to happen is that the Republican Party will evolve into the Libertarian Party, and the Democratic Party will evolve into a Social Democratic Party.

[Ogre Mage]

I am strongly pro-choice, but I don't see clear movement in our favor regardless of what fools like Todd Akin say.  This is a topic when Gen X and Millennials are as divided as boomers.  The issue may rise or fall in importance depending on what's going on in the country, but I don't see either side "winning" the argument, at least not in my lifetime. 

You are right about LGBT rights though.  We've seen this movie before and we know how it ends.  And on gay rights, Gen X and Millennials are much more in favor than older folks, not unlike the generation gap the boomers had with their elders over civil rights in the 1960s and 70s.  Time will show that the anti-LGBT crowd was on the wrong side of history.

[pbrower2a]

The Millennial Generation is so far very bland in its cultural statements,  and as such is more likely than the more doctrinaire Boomers or 'bad boy' Generation X to influence older adults to its favor on political issues.

I am strongly pro-choice, but I don't see clear movement in our favor regardless of what fools like Todd Akin say.  This is a topic when Gen X and Millennials are as divided as boomers.  The issue may rise or fall in importance depending on what's going on in the country, but I don't see either side "winning" the argument, at least not in my lifetime. 

You are right about LGBT rights though.  We've seen this movie before and we know how it ends.  And on gay rights, Gen X and Millennials are much more in favor than older folks, not unlike the generation gap the boomers had with their elders over civil rights in the 1960s and 70s.  Time will show that the anti-LGBT crowd was on the wrong side of history.

Polling trends favor LGBT rights even though America is becoming more intolerant of sexual harassment and abusive sexuality. Give credit to LGBT interests for separating themselves from child abusers.

The tendency for states with ultra-liberal tendencies to legalize same-sex marriage suggests what will happen as some states that got Tea Party legislatures get liberal-leaning state legislatures. The economic argument may be good for getting a state like Michigan  to decide that such legislation is in the best interests of the economic welfare of the state.   

 

[fezzyfestoon]

Haven't read your novel yet but aren't they always on the losing side? It seems to me to be a battle of how much ignorance can be moved past and how much we all have to accept because they demand we cling to it.

[Die Groot Krokodil]

No, we shouldn't allow society to fall to the vultures of immorality

[opebo]

Yes/No.

Alas.

[fezzyfestoon]

No, we shouldn't allow society to fall to the vultures of immorality

It already has

[Person Man]

No, we shouldn't allow society to fall to the vultures of immorality

Yeah, especially with all the party music at the gym....and the big bands that play outside on the plaza. Yup. Its a pretty debauched place.

[Vosem]

Yes/No.

Alas.

I would actually say No/if it did the answer would be Yes. It's sort of regional, of course.

[Likely Voter]

If you look at polling on the issues of God, Gays and Guns, the country is moving to the Dem side. However the GOP side has more single issue voters on those issues. But clearly the GOP now see how they cant use these things as wedge issues anymore. Just look at their tepid response to Obama embracing gay marriage.

As for the future, demographics are working against them. The young generation just dont care about gays and you have more and more Hispanic voters. THe GOP has to change or end up a regional party.

[Vosem]

If you look at polling on the issues of God, Gays and Guns, the country is moving to the Dem side.

God and Guns both still have overwhelming majorities, and the movement on Guns has been very tepid.

As for the future, demographics are working against them. The young generation just dont care about gays and you have more and more Hispanic voters. THe GOP has to change or end up a regional party.

Hispanics are SoCons, and studies have shown people tend to get more conservative as they get older. The GOP doesn't have to change. 1/2 of the population support them and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

[courts]

If you look at polling on the issues of God, Gays and Guns, the country is moving to the Dem side.

God and Guns both still have overwhelming majorities, and the movement on Guns has been very tepid.

if you look at polling 63% of people want to restrict "high capacity magazines" more and the numbers are similar for so-called assault rifles and various other gun control measures. in fact virtually every restriction short of banning handguns has majority support. americans are far more anti-gun than i would like. this is one of the few issues which i'm somewhat grateful for our corrupt lobbying system on otherwise there would be even more erosion than there has been in terms of the 2nd amendment.

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actually neither of those things is true. studies show that people tend to retain the same voting patterns that they did in roughly their mid 20s. perhaps relative to the rest of the population their attitudes might not adjust as fast. nonetheless if you look at say, gen x they've always trended more republican than the national average and this voting pattern has persisted into middle age. as far as studies go we aren't really that noticeably different from the average as far as issues like abortion and same sex marriage go. again, this is not a political trend i like (story of the last 200 years) but it is what it is.

[Likely Voter]

GOD

23. Which comes closer to your view: (The government should take special steps to protect America's religious heritage) or (There should be a high degree of separation between church and state)?

         Gov’t take special      Should be a high
          steps to protect     degree of separation      Neither     No
         religious heritage   between church and state    (vol.)   opinion
8/5/12           40                     55                  2        2

25.b. We should be more tolerant of people who choose to live according to their own
moral standards even if we think they are wrong

          --------- Agree ---------   ------- Disagree --------   Neither     No
          NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly    (vol.)   opinion
8/5/12    75       44         31      23       11         12          1        1

26a. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

              ------ Legal ------   ----- Illegal -----                      
                     All    Most          Most     All      No                
              NET   cases   cases   NET   cases   cases   opinion  
8/5/12        55     19      36     42     25      17        3

GUNS


37. Do you favor or oppose stricter gun control laws in this country? Is that strongly or somewhat (favor/oppose)?

            ----------- Favor --------    ---------- Oppose -------     No
            NET    Strongly   Somewhat    NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
8/5/12      51        39         11       47       10         37         2

GAYS
26b. Do you think it should be LEGAL or ILLEGAL for gay and lesbian couples to get married? Do you feel that way STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT?

             --------- Legal ---------   -------- Illegal --------     No  
             NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
8/5/12       53       39         14      42       11         32         5

From new WaPo/Kaiser poll
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postkaiserpoll_20120805.html

Also note that the trend is in the Dem direction. Within a decade or so these issues will all have massive majorities. In fact in some issues that is already the case. Look at abortion. Only 17% support the official GOP position. And as noted by previous poster on how some provisions of the assault weapons ban have shown very large majorities. Same is true of civil unions, something the GOP also voted down for their platform yesterday.

Bottom line is that the GOP position is becoming less and less within the mainstream.

[Frodo]

If you look at polling on the issues of God, Gays and Guns, the country is moving to the Dem side.

I beg to differ.

As far as guns are concerned (according to the Washington Post poll linked here), the movement over the past twenty years or so has been towards less support for gun control, not more.  The percentages opposing additional gun control measures has gone up from around a third to nearly half.  

And with regard to abortion (somewhat related to the God-portion of your argument), according to other polls, those who support abortion rights are now outnumbered by those who oppose them -a stark contrast with the mid-1990s:

[Likely Voter]

there is a difference between the term pro life and the policy positions of the GOP,
Just look at every poll here
http://www.pollingreport.com/abortion.htm

Support for the GOP position of abortion being illegal in all cases has only 16-20% support.

The majority position in America supports the Democratic position that abortion should be legal in most cases.  The label pro life or pro choice doesnt really matter, the policy matters. A lot of people can be personally pro-life but still believe women have the right to choose for themselves and not have the government make the choice for them.

Another example is related to overturning Roe v Wade (which is GOP orthodoxy). Support for Roe has actual been very steady lately. Here is  Quinnipiac data

 "In general, do you agree or disagree with the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to an abortion?"
 
Agree    Disagree    Unsure         
2/14-20/12
   64    31    5         
4/14-19/10
   60    35    5         
7/8-13/08
   63    33    5         
8/7-13/07
   62    32    6         
11/28 - 12/4/05
   63    32    5         
7/21-25/05
   65    30    6         
5/18-23/05
   63    33    5         


There is a lot of nuance with these things, but the GOP tend to always take the most extreme position. Like with gay marraige, they not only are against it but also civil unions which have overwhelming support. And with gun control, the GOP oppose even the simplest regulation (like extended magazines). So when you get past soundbite and labels to actual policies, the GOP positions are more and more extreme on social issues and out of the mainstream. However, many of these (especially the gay issue) seems more related to age. Within a generation they will not be able to continue to be so anti-gay especially.

[The Mikado]

Treating these issues as a package obscures a lot.  Gay rights has made stunning progress in the last decade, but the same is definitely not true for the pro-choice movement, who are losing ground and suffer setback after setback.  I don't think the GOP is losing the abortion debate at all.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Hispanics are SoCons, and studies have shown people tend to get more conservative as they get older. The GOP doesn't have to change. 1/2 of the population support them and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

This post is so full of fail I don't know where to start.

[Person Man]

Treating these issues as a package obscures a lot.  Gay rights has made stunning progress in the last decade, but the same is definitely not true for the pro-choice movement, who are losing ground and suffer setback after setback.  I don't think the GOP is losing the abortion debate at all.

The abortion debate has never really "started" or "ended", throughout history, people have always debated it and there has been as many and as varied abortion policies as there have been societies that make them. Though, I know of only one society where it was the same as murder and several where it was even seen as desirable. The median position throughout history and different cultures is that its to be taken on a case by case basis as much as possible.

On the other hand, our gay debate is simply a product of trying conform our ideas of freedom to our ideas about the officialness of marriage and preconceived notions of sexuality that are again as varied as our notions of abortion.

[Link]

Gay rights has made stunning progress in the last decade, but the same is definitely not true for the pro-choice movement, who are losing ground and suffer setback after setback.  I don't think the GOP is losing the abortion debate at all.

The right lost the debate when the Supreme Court ruled on Roe v Wade.  There cannot be a federal blanket ban on abortion.  The only people that talk about it are people fishing for votes from idiots.

Individual states pass some antiabortion laws when Republicans are in power but they are only shooting themselves in the foot.  The wealthy and middle class can afford the $500 for an airplane ticket and hotel to get an abortion in a more civilized state.  The Red states are then stuck with poor women ballooning their welfare rolls and restocking their prisons.  If you call that winning I don't know what to say.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Millenials (1981-2000) are almost soon to their "coming to Jesus time". Most Millenials are Pro-Life inspite of other socially liberal leaning positions. Look at the Millenials that the media are propping up Tim Tebow, Jeremy Lin, Jordin Sparks, Colton Dixon. All to my knowledge are very outspoken socially conservative Christians. Do I need to mention those Jonas Brothers

[Donerail]

Millenials (1981-2000) are almost soon to their "coming to Jesus time". Most Millenials are Pro-Life inspite of other socially liberal leaning positions. Look at the Millenials that the media are propping up Tim Tebow, Jeremy Lin, Jordin Sparks, Colton Dixon. All to my knowledge are very outspoken socially conservative Christians. Do I need to mention those Jonas Brothers

Even if they're pro-life, we (social liberals) still win on all the other issues? I'd take that deal.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1971433,00.html
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2005/apr/12/20050412-121457-4149r/

[後援会]

There's a very simple reason the GOP has done so well on the abortion debate: federal abortion laws in the United States are not only significantly more lenient than the international norm, but they are much more lenient than most Americans want. Both the official Democrat/Republican position on Abortion are far away from what most Americans want, but the current status quo is closer to the Democrat position, which naturally gives the "issue" advantage to the GOP. If abortion laws become far more strict, I could see this reversing.

It's a very mixed bag on social issues. The GOP has basically achieved total and complete victory on gun issues. Both parties will probably lose with the War on Drugs. Affirmative action will probably go onto the same dustheap of history as forced busing. There are more to social issues than "GOD AND GAYS" and the GOP has actually been pretty successful on those social issues.

Gay marriage seems to be a total defeat for the social conservatives, but there is a silver lining. It is highly probable that gay marriage will be the law of the land everywhere within a generation, but it's quite probable social liberals will try to go farther, such as teaching gay history in schools, crusading against heteronormativity, trying to push for hate speech laws. And if they overreach like that, they'll probably get burned.

[Donerail]

There's a very simple reason the GOP has done so well on the abortion debate: federal abortion laws in the United States are not only significantly more lenient than the international norm, but they are much more lenient than most Americans want. Both the official Democrat/Republican position on Abortion are far away from what most Americans want, but the current status quo is closer to the Democrat position, which naturally gives the "issue" advantage to the GOP. If abortion laws become far more strict, I could see this reversing.

Significantly more lenient that the international norm? They're roughly as restrictive as Canada, Cuba, Guyana, South Africa, France, Spain, Portugal, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, the Baltics, Norway, Sweden, the fmr. Yugoslavia, the fmr. Soviet Union, Bahrain, China, Mongolia, Nepal, Vietnam, Cambodia, and many others. We're nowhere near more lenient than the "international norm" if you're considering the international norm to be developed countries and others comparable to the United States.

It's a very mixed bag on social issues. The GOP has basically achieved total and complete victory on gun issues. Both parties will probably lose with the War on Drugs. Affirmative action will probably go onto the same dustheap of history as forced busing. There are more to social issues than "GOD AND GAYS" and the GOP has actually been pretty successful on those social issues.

Yes, yes, 2nd Amendment stands, War on Drugs is a failure like Prohibition, affirmative action eventually dies, and liberalism prevails.

[Person Man]

There's a very simple reason the GOP has done so well on the abortion debate: federal abortion laws in the United States are not only significantly more lenient than the international norm, but they are much more lenient than most Americans want. Both the official Democrat/Republican position on Abortion are far away from what most Americans want, but the current status quo is closer to the Democrat position, which naturally gives the "issue" advantage to the GOP. If abortion laws become far more strict, I could see this reversing.

Significantly more lenient that the international norm? They're roughly as restrictive as Canada, Cuba, Guyana, South Africa, France, Spain, Portugal, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, the Baltics, Norway, Sweden, the fmr. Yugoslavia, the fmr. Soviet Union, Bahrain, China, Mongolia, Nepal, Vietnam, Cambodia, and many others. We're nowhere near more lenient than the "international norm" if you're considering the international norm to be developed countries and others comparable to the United States.

It's a very mixed bag on social issues. The GOP has basically achieved total and complete victory on gun issues. Both parties will probably lose with the War on Drugs. Affirmative action will probably go onto the same dustheap of history as forced busing. There are more to social issues than "GOD AND GAYS" and the GOP has actually been pretty successful on those social issues.

Yes, yes, 2nd Amendment stands, War on Drugs is a failure like Prohibition, affirmative action eventually dies, and liberalism prevails.

That's pretty much the issue..basically younger people believe the same that older people do on abortion. Do you think this will change when they are older or do you think that as there are new other issues, so will there be fresh perspectives on the issues?

[Comrade Funk]

Millenials (1981-2000) are almost soon to their "coming to Jesus time". Most Millenials are Pro-Life inspite of other socially liberal leaning positions. Look at the Millenials that the media are propping up Tim Tebow, Jeremy Lin, Jordin Sparks, Colton Dixon. All to my knowledge are very outspoken socially conservative Christians. Do I need to mention those Jonas Brothers

Tebow and Lin? They're sports players who had a good story. Jordin Sparks? She's a popular singer who was on American Idol. The Jonas Brothers are safe Disney-produced boy bad, who aren't even popular anymore. Millenials are the least religious and most socially liberal generation yet.