What % chance is there of the following events happening (in your opinion)?
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Author Topic: What % chance is there of the following events happening (in your opinion)?  (Read 532 times)
Eraserhead
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« on: August 23, 2012, 10:10:33 AM »
% chance of Obama winning Ohio while losing Wisconsin?

% chance of Obama winning Florida while losing Wisconsin?

% chance of Obama winning Indiana while losing Wisconsin?

% chance of Obama winning Missouri while losing Wisconsin?
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opebo
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« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2012, 10:18:41 AM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on August 23, 2012, 10:10:33 AM
% chance of Obama winning Ohio while losing Wisconsin?
30%

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10%

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~0%

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Far below 1%
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renegadedemocrat
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« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2012, 10:33:35 AM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on August 23, 2012, 10:10:33 AM
% chance of Obama winning Ohio while losing Wisconsin?
25%

% chance of Obama winning Florida while losing Wisconsin?
20%

% chance of Obama winning Indiana while losing Wisconsin?
2%

% chance of Obama winning Missouri while losing Wisconsin?
5%
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billbillerson
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« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2012, 11:29:28 AM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on August 23, 2012, 10:10:33 AM
% chance of Obama winning Ohio while losing Wisconsin?

50%

% chance of Obama winning Florida while losing Wisconsin?

20%

% chance of Obama winning Indiana while losing Wisconsin?

0%

% chance of Obama winning Missouri while losing Wisconsin?

2%
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Supersonic
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« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2012, 12:25:59 PM »
Quote from: billbillerson on August 23, 2012, 11:29:28 AM
Quote from: Eraserhead on August 23, 2012, 10:10:33 AM
% chance of Obama winning Ohio while losing Wisconsin?

50%

% chance of Obama winning Florida while losing Wisconsin?

20%

% chance of Obama winning Indiana while losing Wisconsin?

0%

% chance of Obama winning Missouri while losing Wisconsin?

2%
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NVGonzalez
antwnzrr
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« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2012, 01:05:42 PM »
% chance of Obama winning Ohio while losing Wisconsin?

40%

% chance of Obama winning Florida while losing Wisconsin?

20%

% chance of Obama winning Indiana while losing Wisconsin?

0.00000000000000000000001%

% chance of Obama winning Missouri while losing Wisconsin?

1%
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Grumpier Than Thou
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« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2012, 01:09:31 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on August 23, 2012, 10:10:33 AM
% chance of Obama winning Ohio while losing Wisconsin?

% chance of Obama winning Florida while losing Wisconsin?

% chance of Obama winning Indiana while losing Wisconsin?

% chance of Obama winning Missouri while losing Wisconsin?

35%
45%
2%
3%
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2012, 01:59:55 PM »
Quote from: Supersonic on August 23, 2012, 12:25:59 PM
Quote from: billbillerson on August 23, 2012, 11:29:28 AM
Quote from: Eraserhead on August 23, 2012, 10:10:33 AM
% chance of Obama winning Ohio while losing Wisconsin?

50%

% chance of Obama winning Florida while losing Wisconsin?

20%

% chance of Obama winning Indiana while losing Wisconsin?

0%

% chance of Obama winning Missouri while losing Wisconsin?

2%

50% on the first question? Damn, it'd be cool to see but it isn't that likely...
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2012, 03:53:31 PM »
% chance of Obama winning Ohio while losing Wisconsin?

10%

% chance of Obama winning Florida while losing Wisconsin?

10%

% chance of Obama winning Indiana while losing Wisconsin?

>1%

% chance of Obama winning Missouri while losing Wisconsin?

>1%
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stegosaurus
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« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2012, 04:33:47 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on August 23, 2012, 01:59:55 PM
Quote from: Supersonic on August 23, 2012, 12:25:59 PM
Quote from: billbillerson on August 23, 2012, 11:29:28 AM
Quote from: Eraserhead on August 23, 2012, 10:10:33 AM
% chance of Obama winning Ohio while losing Wisconsin?

50%

% chance of Obama winning Florida while losing Wisconsin?

20%

% chance of Obama winning Indiana while losing Wisconsin?

0%

% chance of Obama winning Missouri while losing Wisconsin?

2%

50% on the first question? Damn, it'd be cool to see but it isn't that likely...

It wouldn't be too supremely shocking. The states are trending in opposite directions and Romney is a better fit for Wisconsin than Ohio (granted, not by much). If the PV margin is less than 1%, both states should be a coin flip - meaning the scenario could very well play out.

The other three scenarios are virtually impossible.
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