NM-Rasmussen: Obama with a huge 14-point lead

[cinyc]

Now that any doubt about NM is out of the way, do you think we can say that Obama has 247 in the bag, and Romney has 181 in the bag?

Something bizarre is up in Minnesota.  Biden was just there and the campaigns spent six-figures advertising there last week.   Plus, Michigan may be closer than you think.  So, no.

[cinyc]

Now that any doubt about NM is out of the way, do you think we can say that Obama has 247 in the bag, and Romney has 181 in the bag?

Something bizarre is up in Minnesota.  Biden was just there and the campaigns spent six-figures advertising there last week.   Plus, Michigan may be closer than you think.  So, no.

You're not winning Michigan.  You're not winning Minnesota.  I'm looking at this election realistically, not in GOP fairytale land. 

Campaign ad spending and travel itineraries would dictate that one or both of the parties think Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are close enough to spend at least six-figures per week advertising there.  

Follow the money.  Follow the candidates.  That tells you even more than the polling.  Call those states "in the bag" for Obama at your own peril.

[cinyc]

I would agree with that map except NH which may be lean Obama but could go either way in the end. It is hard to tell if MO should be added to the battlegrounds yet. I think with the NRSC and Crossroads pulling out of the senate race Romney and the GOP may have to play some defense but it isn't a swing state yet.

There hasn't been any significant ad spending in Missouri in many months, suggesting the campaigns don't think it is a battleground.  It will be interesting to see if that changes in the near future after the Akin debacle.