Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012

[JulioMadrid]

So, after PP-Euskadi leader, Antpnio Basagoiti, decided that they would not support Patxi Lopez government anymore, Patxi has decided it's time for a new election to take place. He's the first non-nationalist "lehendakari", after 30 years of PNV. Patxi Lopez (PSE-EE/PSOE) won the "lehendakaritza" after finishing 2nd in 2009 elections, with the support of PP and UPyD in the Parliament. In 2009, political parties close to ETA were ilegalized, with only Aralar representing the "abertzale" (nationalist) left. Eusko Alkartasuna, now a part of Bildu, was, by the time, the centre to centre-left party of the nationalist forces.
Now, with the legalization of Bildu, it seems that the election will be PNV vs. Bildu, with PSE a distant 3rd and PP a distant 4th, and, ironically, IU (Esker Anitza in Euskadi) and UPyD are fighting to keep their seats in the Basque parliament, while their percentages are growing fast in the rest of Spain.
Aralar has decided to support Laura Mintegi, Bildu's candidate, while Ezker Batua (formerly supported by IU) will try to keep their seat, too (but it's highly unlikely).

Polls indicate that PNV will win 23 to 25 seats, Bildu 20-23, PSE 14-17, PP 11-13, IU 0-3, UPyD 0-1.

[Marcus Aurelius]

And what government could come out of that kind of results ?

Is the primary concern for forming majorities the national question or the centre-left spectrum ? I guess we're a bit in a Quebec-like situation

I didn't look into basque politics for a few years, and I didn't know about that Bildu coalition. If I gather this well, PNV is now more identified as right-wing as it had been in the past, and Bildu takes the left-wing place. Could PNV and Bildu have an agreement to rule together or is it just impossible ?

[Diouf]

What about the Amaiur coaliton that fared quite well in the 2011 general election? It seems that Bildu coalition is now the left-wing Basque force, so I guess that's where the parties and voters from Amaiur are at this election?

It looks like the nationalist vote will increase by some, which must be a return to the traditional level after a poor 2009 election. Anger at the central government for the austerity measures, disappointment about a coalition without a nationalist party, and internal problems in the PP-PSOE agreement. Am I right in guessing that these are some of the reasons for the return of the nationalist vote?

[Vasall des Midas]

Going by the English wiki stubs, Amaiur would appear to be Bildu + Aralar (plus a few splinter groups, and of course Bildu is a coalition of groups itself). Presumably though, Aralar has since joined Bildu.

[Hashemite]

Good news, obviously.

Bildu = Amaiur (+Aralar, Alternatiba and some other small things) which is know running as 'Euskal Herria Bildu' (EH Bildu). The Bildu coalition has also included EA, Garaikoetxea's old left-nationalist PNV splinter which has, since its 2009 rout, moved closer to the abertzale left. The EH Bildu candidate for lehendakari is Laura Mintegi, a fairly well known Basque author and academic.

It looks like the nationalist vote will increase by some, which must be a return to the traditional level after a poor 2009 election. Anger at the central government for the austerity measures, disappointment about a coalition without a nationalist party, and internal problems in the PP-PSOE agreement. Am I right in guessing that these are some of the reasons for the return of the nationalist vote?

Basically, yeah. In the last general election, Euskadi had already voted counter-current with Spain because the PP actually lost votes and the result was a strong nationalist victory (PNV + Amaiur). The 2009 election came on the heels of the PSOE's massive success in Euskadi in the 2008 general election, and there are certainly some nationalists among those who contributed to Socialist success back then have been voting for the abertzale left since last year. The new abertzale left is much less scary because it is no longer (entirely) a front for ETA, which has anyhow abandoned violence (ETA really wasn't a big deal in the 2011 elections). It can serve as a channel for all sorts of anger, anti-system feelings and left-wing oppositions; and the unpopularity of the austerity measures taken by Madrid have certainly helped.

Patxi Lopez himself isn't reviled or even very unpopular as Lehendakari, but his government is pretty unpopular.

The abertzale's success are based on transfers from some of those who had voted PSE in 2008/2009, for IU in those same years, some votes from the PNV; a considerable amount of votes from non-voters or people who had cast blank ballots pre-2011. At 25%, it certainly is far above the natural 10% or so floor for the radical abertzale left.

I doubt a post-election PNV-EHB formal coalition is an option, it would be very controversial in Spain even if probably not all that controversial in Euskadi itself. I guess the PNV could form a minority administration with EHB backing.

[JulioMadrid]

I think the most likely coalition is PNV/PSE.

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

A PNV-PSE coalition seems a bit unlikely. The relationship between the two parties is not too good after the Ibarretxe and Patxi López governments. PNV and nationalist people in general think that PSE 'stole' the lehendakaritza because they think that the ban of the radical abertzale left (Batasuna and associated labels) altered the 2009 election result. I think that with a strong nationalist majority PNV doesn't need PSE. In the case that EHB could get more seats than PNV, which is possible even if the abertzale left doesn't win the popular vote, the scenary would be more complex.

[JulioMadrid]

El Mundo poll:

PNV 24-25 (33,7)
EHB 21-22 (27,3)
PSOE 17 (21,4)
PP 12 (12,8)
IU 0 (2,3)
UPyD 0 (1,1)

La Razón:

PNV: 31.2% (22-25)
EHB: 26.5% (20-22)
PSE: 19.0% (14-16)
PP: 14.1% (11-13)
IU: 3.5% (2)
UPyD: 3.1% (1)

Two biased, conservative polls if you ask me.

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

The election in Galicia will be on October 21 too. The Galician president renounces to develop a controversial electoral reform.

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

A map of the 2011 General Election in the Basque municipalities that I found somewhere. Amaiur won almost everywhere in Gipuzkoa (Guipúzcoa in Spanish) and several municipalities in eastern Biscay and northern Álava (Araba in Basque).

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

La Voz de Galicia poll:

PP 43.4% and 39 seats (+1)

PSOE 26.4% and 24 (-1)

BNG 11.5% and 9 (-3)

EU-Anova 6.1% and 3 (+3)

According to this poll Núñez Feijoó could mantain the majority and a new force will appear in the Galician Parliament: Alternativa Galega (Galician Alternative). The latter is a coalition between the Galician branch of IU (United Left) and Anova-Irmandade Nacionalista, a new party lead by the former BNG candidate Xosé Manuel Beiras. The left-wing alliance intends to be a "Galician Syriza". Another group splitted from the BNG is CxG (Compromise for Galicia) that is composed by the former centre-left sector of BNG and other small centrist parties like Terra Galega.

[JulioMadrid]

Important to note that La Voz de Galicia is still alive because of Feijoo's subventions.

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

This poll is quite strange. Compare the predicted results in La Coruña and Pontevedra with the 2009 result. It seems a bit odd because PP is 0.4% up in the first province and 9.2% down in the second.  On the other hand the EU-Anova coalition will have to be renamed; the name "Alternativa Galega" is registered.



Nation-wide the Celeste-Tel September poll has the following results: PP 34%; PSOE 29.9%; IU 10.8% and UPyD 8.6%.

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

There is something serious going on in Catalonia, especially after the massive independentist demonstration in Barcelona on September 11, the National Day (Diada) of Catalonia. The President of the Generalitat, Artur Mas, called for new 'constituent' elections :

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/09/25/inenglish/1348582138_981055.html

Catalan premier Artur Mas on Tuesday told the region's parliament that he is calling early elections on November 25.

The decision to go to the ballot box before Mas’ mandate is up comes after growing calls for independence for Spain’s richest region and the government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s rejection of his demands for a fiscal pact under which Catalonia would have the right to levy its own revenues and for these to be divvied out with the state.

A victory for Mas' CiU center-right nationalist formation would give him a mandate to pursue greater control over the Catalan region's affairs.

There are no specific avenues in the Spanish Constitution that allow for the secession of a region. The opposition Socialist Party has proposed amending the Constitution to introduce a fully-fledged federal system along the lines of other European countries such as Germany.

The Rajoy administration has thrown out the idea of a new funding arrangement for all of the regions. Catalan government spokesman Francesc Homs classified as “disconcerting” and “contradictory” the invitation of the Rajoy administration for talks on improving regional funding. He said the appeal for negotiation would not distract Catalan nationalists from their intention of going “our own way.”

Mas on Monday said he intended to present a resolution to the regional assembly that demands that “the people of Catalonia be allowed to freely and democratically decide their collective future.”

However, Homs said Catalonia, which has asked Madrid for an emergency loan of some five billion euros to settle debts maturing this year, was open to talks. “We are not closing the door to dialogue,” he said.

[Marcus Aurelius]

It has started then... What have they done, seriously...

Funny how the Catalan spokesman is called Homs while starting an administrative civil war... Or not.

[Sibboleth]

What do the polls says in Catalunya?

[Hashemite]

What do the polls says in Catalunya?

I saw a poll a few days ago; CiU and PSOE down a bit from the last election, PP and ICV up a tad, ERC up a bit

[YL]

What do the polls says in Catalunya?

There are some listed on the Spanish Wikipedia.  I don't know how comprehensive the list is, of course.

Haven't there also been polls quite strongly pro-independence?

[Hashemite]

ftr, here is the poll I referenced:



It was for the very right-wing La Razon newspaper, but it doesn't seem too out of whack.

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

What do the polls says in Catalunya?

There are some listed on the Spanish Wikipedia.  I don't know how comprehensive the list is, of course.

Haven't there also been polls quite strongly pro-independence?

The Center for Opinion Studies (CEO), which depends on the Economy Department of the Generalitat, has some polls. Last poll about the question: "Which kind of political entity should Catalonia be with respect to Spain?": independent state 34%, confederal model 28.7% , current status 25.4% and "Spanish region" 5.7% .

More polls in the following link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_separatism#Polls

About La Razón poll, the PP's best records in Catalonia are 13% of the vote in 1995 and 18 seats in 2010. I think that is more realistic a vote percentage around 10-12%, although it seems that this election will be a sort of plebiscite.

[JulioMadrid]

Hash, I disagree. The poll is reeeally inaccurate, IMHO.

ERC will grow a lot, probably becoming the 2nd party if the PSC crisis doesn't stop before December.

PSC is down a bit, probably will ink even further, because Pere Navarro isn't that known and socialists prefer another candidate (polls say).

PP is obviously down, don't know if only a bit or a lot. I think a lot.

CiU should be way down, since people don't like Mas and his cuts on Health and Education have been really radical. But since he now is the independentist voice, and everything bad that happens in Catalunya is because of Spain, he may still get 60 deputies.

About SI, I'd say they'd get more votes than in 2010, but I think people will vote ERC, instead.

Ciutadans will likely get 1 or 2 more seats in the Parliament, as some ex-voters of PSC and PP may vote for them.

ICV is probably getting better results than in 2010. IU has gone from 7 to 14% on the national level. ICV may get 3-4 more congressmen (they have 10 now).

My prediction: CiU wins with more than 60 deputies, PSC sinks even further (wouldn't be the case with Angel Ros, the mayor of Lleida), ERC almost catches PSC, ICV gets more votes than PP, Ciutadans gets 5 seats and SI won't be in the next Parliament (specially if CUP decides to take part in this election). PxC won't enter the Parliament, I hope.

[YL]

Will CiU actually make any moves towards independence (or maybe an SNP-style "devo max" option, or whatever "confederal model" means in that poll) after the election, or is all this talk hot air?

[Peter the Lefty]

La Voz de Galicia poll:

PP 43.4% and 39 seats (+1)

PSOE 26.4% and 24 (-1)

BNG 11.5% and 9 (-3)

EU-Anova 6.1% and 3 (+3)

According to this poll Núñez Feijoó could mantain the majority and a new force will appear in the Galician Parliament: Alternativa Galega (Galician Alternative). The latter is a coalition between the Galician branch of IU (United Left) and Anova-Irmandade Nacionalista, a new party lead by the former BNG candidate Xosé Manuel Beiras. The left-wing alliance intends to be a "Galician Syriza". Another group splitted from the BNG is CxG (Compromise for Galicia) that is composed by the former centre-left sector of BNG and other small centrist parties like Terra Galega.

Any reason why BNG is down?  You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

[Hashemite]

La Voz de Galicia poll:

PP 43.4% and 39 seats (+1)

PSOE 26.4% and 24 (-1)

BNG 11.5% and 9 (-3)

EU-Anova 6.1% and 3 (+3)

According to this poll Núñez Feijoó could mantain the majority and a new force will appear in the Galician Parliament: Alternativa Galega (Galician Alternative). The latter is a coalition between the Galician branch of IU (United Left) and Anova-Irmandade Nacionalista, a new party lead by the former BNG candidate Xosé Manuel Beiras. The left-wing alliance intends to be a "Galician Syriza". Another group splitted from the BNG is CxG (Compromise for Galicia) that is composed by the former centre-left sector of BNG and other small centrist parties like Terra Galega.

Any reason why BNG is down?  You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

As the post you quoted said, the BNG has been going through major internal troubles. The EU-Anova list includes Xose Manuel Beiras, a former (very successful) BNG leader who has been on the losing end of recent leadership wranglings within the BNG (the winners being the current leadership formed by the communistic UPG). It is hard to assign clear ideological labels to the various factions, Beiras could be described as being kind of a New Left-type and the UPG is a bit more Old Left.

[Sibboleth]

You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

Why?