Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

I found a questionaire about the Galician election. Unfortunately it's only in Spanish and Galician languages. I must be a voter of the Galician Left Alternative (AGE) if I have to trust this test.

http://www.horizontegalicia.com/

My result: AGE (EU, Anova, Equo, etc) 62.1%; BNG 54.6%; CxG 49%; PSOE 39.2%; UPyD 21.9% and PP -41.7%. Yes, you've read well, my proximity to PP is in negative numbers.

There is a "graphic of distance" which says that I'm relatively near to AGE, BNG, CxG and PSOE, far from UPyD and at a sideral distance from PP. On economics my distance from AGE is 9.4, 13.4 from BNG, 25 from CxG, 34.1 from PSOE, 37.8 from UPyD and... 87.6 from PP! On society I'm at 16.4 from BNG and CxG, 18.9 from AGE and PSOE, 39 from UPyD and... 84 from PP. On politics I'm at 25 from CxG, 31.3 from BNG, 32.7 from AGE and PSOE, 40.8 from UPyD and 68.1 from PP. On Galician issues 25 from AGE, 26.4 from PSOE, 45.1 from UPyD and 56.5 from PP.

Finally there is a left/right-centralism/devolution axis. On the ideologic axis I'm between PSOE and CxG (at my right) and AGE and BNG (at my left). On the other axis I'm closer to PSOE.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

I didn't vote for all the questions, anyway my result: EU 55.8%, BNG 45.7%, CxG 44.6%, PSG-PSOE 40.9%, UPyD 20%, PP -37.0%. What I would expect really.

Would Barca really want independence?

[♀ Komrade Feminazi Kitteh ♀]

My results on the quiz:
EU 56.8% BNG 52.8% CXG 48.5% PSG-PSOE 40.3% UPyD 16.9% PP -46.6%



I didn't answer all the questions, and I gave "no opinion" to most of the Galician questions as I don't have strong feelings about that issue.

Interesting that most people here seem to be getting about the same results.

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

Would Barca really want independence?

The current president, Sandro Rosell, is not as openly independentist as Joan Laporta but anyways:

Club president Sandro Rosell, whose father accidentally dropped and smashed the club's clay bust of Franco while throwing it gleefully about with a friend on the day the dictator died, has defended self-determination. "When Catalans decide their future, Barça will be at their side," he said recently. "We will always defend our roots and the rights of peoples to decide their own future."

But what league will it play in? "I have no doubt that Barça will keep playing in the [Spanish] liga," he said.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/05/barcelona-real-madrid-catalan-nationalists

I didn't answer all the questions, and I gave "no opinion" to most of the Galician questions as I don't have strong feelings about that issue.

Interesting that most people here seem to be getting about the same results.

Maybe that's the reason why your star is up on the 'centralism' axis, close to UPyD, or did you answer any question related to language policies?

[JulioMadrid]

My results:

IUANOVA: 63.7%
BNG 49.6%
CxG 45%
PSOE 40.8%
UPYD 29%
PP -40%

Unsurprising now that I've realized I'm not the typical PSOE voter...
But I still support Pachi Vázquez!!!

Oh, and I'll go to Vitoria this Sunday to the Patxi macro-meeting, then will do some campaign for him. It's useless, we will not even get 17 seats...

[♀ Komrade Feminazi Kitteh ♀]

[quote authlink=topic=157959.msg3461417#msg3461417 date=1350003619]

I didn't answer all the questions, and I gave "no opinion" to most of the Galician questions as I don't have strong feelings about that issue.

Interesting that most people here seem to be getting about the same results.

Maybe that's the reason why your star is up on the 'centralism' axis, close to UPyD, or did you answer any question related to language policies?
[/quote]

I didn't answer the language policy questions. But I did answer questions related to the EU, and I am strongly pro-EU. Maybe they included those in the centralism scale and that's why I'm so far up?

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

I didn't answer the language policy questions. But I did answer questions related to the EU, and I am strongly pro-EU. Maybe they included those in the centralism scale and that's why I'm so far up?

I don't know how it works but I don't think so. I'm not Euro-Sceptic and my result was different. Trust the circle: you are in the middle.

Let's give a face to the Galician candidates.



Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP). He's running a personal campaign showing himself as an example of solvent and austere manager and trying to take distance from the central government. The oposition tries to attack him claiming that the regional deficit is made up (El Pais published some evidence days ago) and with the issue of a supposed contract between PEMEX and the Galician shipyards. Feijóo stated that the contract is done but it seems that the Mexican Oil Company is considering various offers.



Pachi Vázquez (PSOE). Former mayor of O Carballiño (Ourense). The Galician socialists had to face a corruption scandal involving the mayor of Ourense in the beggining of the campaign. Also, other PP and BNG's elected officials are accused as a consequence of the 'Pokemon Operation'. Vázquez is regarded as a quite uncharismatic candidate.



Francisco Jorquera (BNG). Veteran nationalist who was Senator and Deputy in Madrid. Elected as the representant of UPG, the major faction in the BNG. The main challenge of the candidate is trying to mantain the strenght of the Galician Nationalist Bloc after several splits.



Xosé Manuel Beiras (Anova) and Yolanda Díaz (EU). Beiras is a charismatic and quite populist nationalist leader who was the BNG candidate when the Galician nationalism was at its peak. He left BNG and created a new party, Anova, composed by his former BNG faction (Encontro Irmandiño) and other nationalist groups. Later Anova reached an agreement with the Galician IU (Esquerda Unida) in order to create a "broad front" against the "barbaric" PP's policies. The coalition was named Alternativa Galega de Esquerda (AGE). Yolanda Díaz, the EU leader, is a combative Ferrol councillor.

Other candidates are Xoán Bascuas (CxG, Compromise for Galicia) and the former banker Mario Conde who has Galician roots and leads Civil Society and Democracy (SCD). Conde was released from prison five years ago, after being accused of embezzlement. Now he is commentator in the very right-wing Intereconomía, among other things. It seems that his choices are lower as long the campaign is advancing. An article about the guy:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/10/12/inenglish/1350065631_786311.html

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

The same test for the Basque Country.

http://www.horizonteeuskadi.com/

Result: Equo-Berdeak 53%; Ezker Anitza (IU) 47.9%; EH-Bildu 45.8%; PSE-EE 37.1%; EAJ-PNV 24.6%; UPyD 15.4%; PP -29.2%

Alternative result (with another algorithm): Equo 59.5%; IU 56.7%; PSE-EE 53.3%; EHB 46.7%; PNV 38.3%; UPyD 25%; PP -25%

Proximity: IU on Economics, PSE on Society, Politics and Basque Country issues.

Ideological axis: between PSE and Equo. Centralism/Decentralisation: close to Ezker Anitza.

[JulioMadrid]

My results:

Equo-Berdeak: 67.9%
PSE-EE (!):       50.8%
Ezker Anitza:   49.2%
Bildu:               35%
UPyD:              34.6%
PNV:                3.8%
PP:                  -20.4%

About right. I'm surprised I'm such an environmentalist, but I'm glad to see PSE fits me better than IU this time The PP numbers should be around -40. Could it be because Basagoiti is more moderate than the national PP? Or maybe because I'm strongly pro-EU?


The alternative result is:

Equo:   69%
PSE:     61.7%
IU:       51.7%
UPyD:  40%
Bildu:   35%
PNV:    10%
PP:     -20%

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

El Mundo poll:

PNV 33.3% 24-26 seats; EHB 24.5% 20; PSE-EE 20.2% 16-18; PP 14.7% 12; UPyD 1-2 seats; IU 1.

Deia, Grupo Noticias:



EDIT: I forgot this one from Eustat




http://www.lehendakaritza.ejgv.euskadi.net/contenidos/informe_estudio/o_12praut/es_12praut/adjuntos/12praut_es.pdf

[JulioMadrid]

I hope those numbers were true for PSE..

[♀ Komrade Feminazi Kitteh ♀]

I got Equo-Berdeak 56.3%, IU-EA 55.4%, Bildu 54.8%, PSE-EE 37.5%, 20.5% UPyD, 13.1% EAJ-PNV, -33.3% PP


This time it actually put me down on the descentralización side of things, about where IU is, I think because I said "agree" to the release of sick ETA prisoners. That was more of a humanitarian thing/because I'm a leftie who's soft on crime and terrorism then out of any sympathy with the ETA. On the left-right axis I came in in between Equo and PSE.

Proximity: Equo/PSE on economics (I think Equo was just a tiny bit closer, basically a tie), Bildu on society, EAJ-PNV on politics (I wonder why), and Equo/IU on Basque issues (see above)

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

It's curious, but depending on the algorithm (I wrote "logarithm" before, lapsus linguae) PSE and EHB appear in different places in my results. This didn't occur with the Galician test. If I remember well I was relatively close to EHB except on Basque Country issues. I support the release of prisoners with terminal illness, despite my strong antipathy for ETA.

[JulioMadrid]

The question was about sick prisoners, IIRC. That's what my option was "disagree". But, obviously, I believe the ones with terminal illness should be released from prison. Bolinaga shouldn't (I don't think he's terminal).

And the new LaVanguardia poll:

CIU 68-69
PSC 20-21
PP 17-18
ERC 13
ICV 10-11
Ciutadans 3
SI 0-2
PxC 0-2

Flawed, if you want my opinion. CiU gets the absolute majority here.

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

Disgracefully a CiU absolute majority is possible, despite the cutbacks, the high unemployement rate, the sinking regional finances... Artur Mas is a magician: he's turning sad waters into wine (my apologies to Nick Cave, this is a plagiarism). Worst of all, he is receiving an unvaluable help from PP's ministers.



Up: José Ignacio Wert (Spain's Minister of Education): "We want to 'Hispanicize' Catalan children" ("Españolizar" sounds pretty ugly, believe me).

Down: Artur Mas (Catalonian President): "This is just what I need".

Even the King is worried:

King Juan Carlos on Friday used the military parade during Spain’s National Day celebrations to take Education Minister José Ignacio Wert to task over his controversial vow to “Hispanicize Catalan students.”

“That about Hispanicizing the Catalans of poor Wert -- I told him what he had done was very bad,” the king said to Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy as they watched the parade.

However, Wert stuck to his guns by insisting in Catalan that: “I am very proud about what I said.” (...)

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/10/12/inenglish/1350053206_866433.html

Indeed Mr. Wert is a fire-eater and an arsonist, but his words reflect the mentality of certain right-wing (and UPyD and some leftists, for the record) in Madrid. I've read somewhere that if Catalonia gets independence, the Spain's Monarchy is over. I don't care too much about the King, because I'm Republican, but the consequences of a seccesion could be terrible. I'm sure that all of we, in the Rest of Spain, will be even poorer. Spain needs a deep Constitutional Reform but I'm afraid that this will never happen because of the blind resistance to change that show many people in Madrid and other parts of Spain.

Oh, I have another poll from El Correo/ Diario Vasco:

[Senator MaxQue]

Galicia:

EU: 60.8%
CxG: 51.6%
BNG: 51.3%
PSG-PSOE: 37.1%
UPyD: 22.7%
PP: -39,7%

Basque Country:

Bildu: 53.3%
IU: 50.4%
Equo-Berdeak: 49.4%
PSE-EE-PSOE: 30.8%
EAJ-PNV: 21.7%
UPyD: 5.0%
PP: -35.4%

Apparently, I drifted left in the recent months, since I'm far of the maintream left.

[Marcus Aurelius]

Atlas Forum will do that to you... ;-)

[Senator MaxQue]

Atlas Forum will do that to you... ;-)

Oh, no, I'm on the forum since longer than that. A couple of years. I would point more at the Quebec students protests of the spring.

To return on the subject, what CiU will do on the autonomy/independance front if elected with a majority?

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

To return on the subject, what CiU will do on the autonomy/independance front if elected with a majority?

Artur Mas has promised to hold a Referendum, with a CiU majority or with the support of other parties. There is some controversy about the referendum question, because Mas has a curious resistance to pronounce the word "independence". Days ago he told to La Vanguardia that the question could be: "do you want Catalonia turning into a new European state?". There are different opinions about what would happen with the EU if Catalonia secedes, because now belongs to it, but as a new country they´ll probably have to seek for admission. He also says that Catalonia needs to have an "estatal structure" and other things in the same fashion. Anyways he's pretty clear when he says that he would personally vote for independence. "Our ideal is to be part of the United States of Europe", he stated.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/world/europe/in-catalonia-spain-artur-mas-threatens-to-secede.html?pagewanted=1&ref=spain

[Gren]

Hi! As a Basque voter, I'm pretty interested in this particular issue. I think this election will be a turning point for Euskadi: a lot of things are going to change, hopefully, after O-21.

First of all, the current lehendakari will be ousted from office, something I'm extremely happy about. Someone said in a previous post that he's not particularly unpopular, but that's simply not true. Patxi Lopez is disliked by a whopping majority of the Basque people, particularly (but not exclusively) by the nationalists and the ezker abertzalea. He's been despised by the Basque society ever since he was sworn in as Lehendakari after a contra-natura deal with Basagoiti's PP. As far as I'm concerned, he's been a fairly incompetent leader and administrator and he'd better go home after the election.

The fact that EHBildu is taking part is quite positive and evidences the political normalization of our country. Now every single group will be represented, mirroring the real opinion and feelings of the Basque population as a whole. This doesn't mean that we should forget about what happened,  but it is a clear step towards peace. Their candidate, Laura Mintegi, is not too controversial and gives an overly good impression. They're gonna get an awful lot of votes, although I don't  think they'll win. The past is just too recent for the ezker abertzalea to overcome many voters' doubts and fears.

Anyway, I'm not hiding my support for the PNV and Iñigo Urkullu. The PNV has a pretty good record and is the least polarizing of the 4 major parties. By the way, they're not right-wing as many people claim, just look at how they vote. They're definitely socially liberal and centrist when it comes to the economy. They've voted against Zapatero's and Rajoy's cuts, but now the same ones that caused the mess and made anti-social decisions (namely the socialists) are trying to picture the Basque Nationalist Party as conservative. They're however not succeeding on it: the PNV, as I said before, has a clear record as a party who cares for the elderly, the unemployed and small businesses. The real right-wing in Euskadi is the People's Party, but they stand a zero chance of winning, so the PSE and EHBildu to a lesser extent are trying to demonize the PNV.

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

Wecome, it's great to have a Basque here.

Hi! As a Basque voter, I'm pretty interested in this particular issue. I think this election will be a turning point for Euskadi: a lot of things are going to change, hopefully, after O-21.

First of all, the current lehendakari will be ousted from office, something I'm extremely happy about. Someone said in a previous post that he's not particularly unpopular, but that's simply not true. Patxi Lopez is disliked by a whopping majority of the Basque people, particularly (but not exclusively) by the nationalists and the ezker abertzalea. He's been despised by the Basque society ever since he was sworn in as Lehendakari after a contra-natura deal with Basagoiti's PP. As far as I'm concerned, he's been a fairly incompetent leader and administrator and he'd better go home after the election.

I think that I wrote in a previous post something about what you're saying about the "contra-natura" deal and the ban of the abertzale left. Anyways I wonder if the dislike of López is because of his leadership and administration skills or it's only the "national question" what plays a role here.

The fact that EHBildu is taking part is quite positive and evidences the political normalization of our country. Now every single group will be represented, mirroring the real opinion and feelings of the Basque population as a whole. This doesn't mean that we should forget about what happened,  but it is a clear step towards peace. Their candidate, Laura Mintegi, is not too controversial and gives an overly good impression. They're gonna get an awful lot of votes, although I don't  think they'll win. The past is just too recent for the ezker abertzalea to overcome many voters' doubts and fears.

Agree mostly. I was always opposed to the ban of Batasuna but I can't avoid thinking that this measure was helpful in order to fight against ETA, so I understand the other position.

About PNV, you will win according to the polls so... I see PNV as center-right, not right wing, and some people has told me that they have developed some good social policies in Euskadi. Obviously, I've heard some criticism towards jetzales too.

[Hashemite]

I thought that López's government was hated but that López the man had some fairly decent personal ratings (from the Euskobarometro poll, I think). Is his government's unpopularity due only to the stupid alliance with the Francoists or is it due to other factors, like the economy? How has his government been on economic issues - has he made any cuts? I know that the CAPV's debt has grown a lot under him, though it remains healthy by Spanish standards, and that there's some issue of him lending money to Madrid without interest meaning that Spain owes the CAPV money or something.

[JulioMadrid]

I'm sure López, the person, is not disliked in Euskadi. The problem is that he was elected lehendakari after losing an election only because PP's Basagoiti thought he was marginally better than Ibarretxe...

I was in Vitoria yesterday, to campaign for Lopez and attend the meeting with Rubalcaba (I took a photo with both of them, will show it later), and the meeting wasn't as full as I expected. Actually, there were some -not many- empty chairs. 4 years ago his meetings were fuuuull of people. I guess that means polls are right or overesimating Patxi

BTW, welcome back, Gren. But PNV is still a conservative party. If you don't think so, wait and see Urkullu govenrment.

[Gren]

It's not only that he's governed with the PP, there are many other reasons why people dislike him. Because, believe me, people do dislike him and not just his cabinet. He lacks a solid academic formation (in the past he'd claim he's an industrial engineer) he can't speak Basque (and admitted having skipped his classes) and he's generally regarded as not very hardworking, somewhat careless and fairly incompetent when it comes to bread-and-butter issues. This is what most people I know think of Patxi López, and a majority of them are not hardcore PNV or EHBildu supporters. What may have confused you is his popularity outside Euskadi, where he's certainly well regarded.

Thank you for your welcome, Julio. Anyway, I'm not going to argue with you about my party's position on the political spectrum. Facts are facts, not empty worlds, and they clearly show the PNV's real nature. Urkullu has made clear that cuts are unavoidable, quite unlike the PSOE (who are playing the we're-the-saviors-of-the-welfare-system-against-the-evil-right role) However, the PNV has consistently ranked as the most trusted party in Euskadi, and people know that public healthcare and education are not at risk under a nationalist-led government.

[JulioMadrid]

Well, Lula didn't have academic formation (Patxi left the University) and he was a popular President. I don't think that's a reason not to like somebody.
He can't speak Basque, as many other Basques (including Ibarretxe!) but he's learning it. Yesterday, half of his speech was in Basque

There are some interesting graphics which show Euskadi has managed to improve its economy since 2009 (while the rest of the Autonomic Communities were cutting and cutting the spending and going down the flames: Valencia, Canarias, Catalunya, Andalucia, Castilla-La Mancha and now probably Aragon):

Commerce:

Unemployment:

Growth:

Others: