How big will be Romney's RNC Bounce Be?

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Option 4 or 5

Options 1 and 2 should have (Winfield and Politico option) listed next to them

[5280]

Option 4

[Supersonic]

Romney +5. On the condition that Mitt gives a blinder of an acceptance speech.

[Likely Voter]

I think combined from pre-Ryan to end of Con he will have 3-4 in total

[Ljube]

Romney has already received a Ryan bounce, so I think very little, +1 at most.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

More than 2, less than 5.

[Lief 🗽]

A significant one, at least 4 or 5 points.

[pepper11]

3-4 points, followed by an Obama bounce of a similar margin. In two weeks we will be right back where we are now. But two weeks from now, Romney will be able to start using his staggering warchest.

[7,052,770]

3-4 points, followed by an Obama bounce of a similar margin. In two weeks we will be right back where we are now.

This is the most likely, judging by recent history.

[Maxwell]

+2 probably. This seems like the election where nothing happens.

[BlueSwan]

+2 probably. This seems like the election where nothing happens.

Yup. I think both convention bounces will be minimal this year.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

OVER 9000

[opebo]

A significant one, at least 4 or 5 points.

That's right.  The white working class will eat it up.  BOTH Ryan and Romney.

The closer we get to the actual election the less Romney's awfulness will matter - he's that cardboard cutout of a big very white man (like Reagan), and that alone would beat Obama, not even taking into account Ryan's appealing brutality.

[pbrower2a]

+5 at the most, and probably washed out by the Obama bounce.

For good reason the networks are putting the two conventions on the back burner.

[Peeperkorn]

Romney 4+

[King]

Romney's poll numbers rise when people have no idea who he is and fall when they do.  A convention which advertises his existence as something other than a theoretical generic candidate only serves to hurt him.

[Brittain33]

Will Romney's champion dancing horse be featured in his bio video, you think? Lots of rural Americans have horses on their farms, that's a connection he shares with America's farmers.

[Thomas D]

Romney +2

[Eraserhead]

-1

[Supersonic]

-1

lol

[zorkpolitics]

Small maybe +2.
1) Most people have made up their minds giving both Obama and Romney about 45%, I doubt any Obama supports will change their minds.
2) The other undecided 10% are mostly low information., low interest voters.  Since the networks will broadcast none of the convention during prime time, its doubtful many of the undecided will even see the convention coverage.
3) The media will find some distraction about the GOP to discuss so they fail to carry much of the GOP/ Romney's positive messages the convention will present

[milhouse24]

I think we have a situation similar to Reagan-Carter, where Carter led until the fall and the debates. 

I would not be surprised, based on current economic conditions and a rather unhappy electorate with general malaise, to see Romney take a decent lead and hold it until election day. 

I think a lot of people don't really know Romney or take him seriously yet.  At least for Midwestern and Southern states, there have been a lot of resistance to a northern Mormon.  I think we will see Republican voters accept and embrace Romney at the convention, and this will build momentum and spread to independents who are sick of Obama.

[Eraserhead]

-1

lol

It's happened before.

[CultureKing]

3-4, which then actually wakes up the democrats base once they realize that Mittens actually has a good chance at winning. In the end I am going to say Romney ends up (after all the bounces) at about +2 from pre-Ryan levels.