Jackson vs. Reagan 1980
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  Jackson vs. Reagan 1980
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Jerseyrules
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« on: August 22, 2012, 11:11:12 PM »

Ok so two different scenarios up for discussion here.  Obviously Jackson would've beat Ford in 76.  But how would President Jackson stand up to Governor Reagan four years later?  Would his administration have been different enough with regards to foreign, domestic, etc. policy to change the economic situation in 1980?  Would Jackson be able to stand his ground in a debate with the Gipper?

Also, while the last item above still applies, what if Jackson challenged Carter from the right and clinched the democratic nomination narrowly (or Carter said screw it and let Kennedy and Jackson duke it out.)  Does this change anything?

Finally, what if Muskie won the democratic nomination in 1980 after a brokered convention, either between Carter and Kennedy or Jackson and Kennedy?  How would he stand up to Reagan in debates, and what would the election look like?

Discuss with maps
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Dr. Cynic
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« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2012, 02:40:52 AM »

I assume you mean Henry Jackson not Jesse Jackson.

It would depend. Scoop was a totally different cat than Carter. Being a former Senator, he probably would've had better relations with Congress. I don't know how well the Democrats would put up with him though. Jackson was basically a pro-labor neoconservative. If his Presidency began to go poorly, it's almost certain he'd get a challenge from the left. No, Reagan probably had a debating edge over almost any opponent he could have faced.

Wouldn't have changed. Jackson wouldn't even be able to finish out his term if he'd been elected in 1980. A Kennedy-Jackson fight benefits Kennedy. Kennedy had just as good a relationship with labor as Jackson and Democrats are far more loyal to the Kennedy family in general.

Muskie would have to not let his temper flare during a debate with the sunny Reagan. I don't think Reagan loses a debate. Muskie could successfully say, "I'm the Secretary of State. The one who is working to get the hostages free. I lose the election and we don't know what will happen to them. I'm trying to save American lives. Governor Reagan could endanger them..." Something like that. That'd be his best chance.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2012, 12:03:54 AM »

But would a single-issue campaign really benefit Muskie?  Reagan could pivot and say "What will you do to fix the economy?  I have tax cuts and you're just talking about the hostages" etc
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2012, 09:16:06 AM »

I assume you mean Henry Jackson not Jesse Jackson.

It would depend. Scoop was a totally different cat than Carter. Being a former Senator, he probably would've had better relations with Congress. I don't know how well the Democrats would put up with him though. Jackson was basically a pro-labor neoconservative. If his Presidency began to go poorly, it's almost certain he'd get a challenge from the left. No, Reagan probably had a debating edge over almost any opponent he could have faced.

Wouldn't have changed. Jackson wouldn't even be able to finish out his term if he'd been elected in 1980. A Kennedy-Jackson fight benefits Kennedy. Kennedy had just as good a relationship with labor as Jackson and Democrats are far more loyal to the Kennedy family in general.

Muskie would have to not let his temper flare during a debate with the sunny Reagan. I don't think Reagan loses a debate. Muskie could successfully say, "I'm the Secretary of State. The one who is working to get the hostages free. I lose the election and we don't know what will happen to them. I'm trying to save American lives. Governor Reagan could endanger them..." Something like that. That'd be his best chance.
We can only hope.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2012, 08:13:20 PM »

Firstly, if Scoop Jackson had been elected President in 1976, there would have been no Kennedy insurgency in 1980.  Jackson and JFK were old friends and Ted Kennedy would not have challenged him, no matter what.  If Jerry Brown had challenged Jackson in the primary he'd have been crushed.

How enthusiastic the Democrats would have been with a Jackson Presidency would have determined about (A) Jackson's conduct of foreign affairs and (B) the response of the anti-war faction of the Democratic Party toward Jackson.  Jackson was a hawk on Vietnam to the end, and there was always resistance to him from the McGovernite types, but he was an economic liberal, and a foreign policy liberal in many areas.  (Jackson was an opponent of Apartheid and a supporter of independence for Namibia.)  If Jackson kept the US out of war, he would have been well received. 

I believe that if Jackson had been President, the Iranian Hostage Crisis would either not have happened or would have been handled in a way which would have inspired more confidence with the public.  Under Jackson, the average American would have been confident in the way the President was handling the situation; Carter never overcame a somewhat unfair perception of being incompetent.  Under such circumstances, I not only think that Jackson would have defeated Reagan; I think it would have been highly possible that Reagan would have opted not to run in 1980.

What would make an interesting "what if" is what 1984 would have been like.  Henry Jackson died suddenly in 1983; under my scenario, he would have died in office.  Who would have been his VP, and what would the outcome of the 1984 election have been?  (My guess is that his VP selection would have been Jimmy Carter, and Carter, as VP succeeding Jackson, would have been re-elected in 1984. He would also have been far more prepared for the Presidency than he was when he was elected.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2012, 01:55:37 PM »

Okay if Jackson (or Reagan) is president in 1979 we may have to consider the very real possibility that not only the Hostage Crisis wouldn't have happened, but another 53-style coup against any rebels might have happened.  Many allege carter even financed or at least encouraged rebels in the revolution, so if Scoop is President, does he give the Shah permission to crush dissent, by any means necessary?  Or does he make Iran a bigger issue, trying to get the Shah to give his people limited freedom of expression but still crush any violent rebels?
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2019, 02:35:26 PM »

I posted in 2012 the idea that Jackson would have picked Jimmy Carter as his running mate.  Since that time, I have done reading and discovered that Jackson and Carter had a cooling of their relationship after the 1972 primaries.  

https://www.weeklystandard.com/elliott-abrams/when-you-cant-stand-your-candidate

Quote
The Jackson biography (by Robert Kaufman) then recounts an interesting story:

Carter had expressed his loathing for McGovern in several conversations with Jackson. .  .  . What happened just after McGovern received the nomination irrevocably colored Jackson's view of Carter. .  .  . Carter called Jackson at 4 a.m. with this request: "Would Scoop be willing to approach McGovern to help get Carter selected as his vice president. .  .  . Scoop could not ever think of Carter again without a certain feeling of revulsion" [Jackson staffer and confidant Richard Perle said]. McGovern also found it off-putting that Carter solicited the vice presidential nomination so assiduously after saying such nasty things about him during the primary campaign.

Had Jackson won the 1976 Democratic Nomination, would Jackson have picked Carter?  Probably not; there are other quotes I have read that describe the falling out Carter and Jackson had.  Much would have depended on whether or how close Carter had come to the nomination in 1976, and whether or not Carter had succeeded in carrying the South versus George Wallace or not.

The issue with Jackson was that he had a solid Civil Rights record that was not appealing to many Southerners, but he had a hawkish record on Vietnam (though his record on many foreign policy issues was far more liberal than he gets credit for) and this displeased the progressively more dovish Democrats of 1976.  Lloyd Bentsen may have been a natural pick for Jackson, but this may not have pleased the liberals.  A better pick would have been Sen. Adlai Stevenson III from the critical (then) swing state of Illinois.

My map for such a race would be this:



Henry Jackson/Adlai Stevenson III (D)  (51%)
Gerald Ford/Robert Dole (R)  (48%)

In retrospect, this strategy SHOULD have been the one Democrats pursued.  Democrats tried to win back the South; they should have realized in 1976 that it was gone, save for a one-trick pony like Carter, whose Southern luster wore off when he was seen as a National Democrat.  THIS labor-friendly ticket would have won CA, NJ, CT, MO, and OH; critical swing states of the day that were heavily unionized. In addition, many voters in CA, NJ, and CT considered Carter the more socially conservative candidate and voted for Ford; those states would have been pickups for Jackson.  Ditto IA, which was one of McGovern's better states that has a traditional anti-Southern tendency.

Now, for Jackson/Reagan in 1980:



Henry Jackson/Adlai Stevenson III (D) (50%)
Ronald Reagan/George Bush (R) (49%)

Henry Jackson would have governed in a way that would have precluded a primary challenge.  He would have mollified the Congress, and he would have had the support of the entire Democratic membership of Congress.  

I am not certain that Reagan would have been nominated against a Jackson.  There are some advantages Reagan would not have enjoyed that he had enjoyed against Carter.  Jackson would not have alienated as much of Congress as Carter did, nor would he have governed in such a manner as to promote a speech about "malaise".  Jackson would NOT have carried CA in the general election, but Reagan would have had to work hard to win his home state.  

Carter is an example of a guy who tries to govern as a true outsider.  Clinton was not an outsider, nor was Bush 43.  Jackson would have avoided those perils, and that would have been enough to win, even in difficult circumstances.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2019, 11:16:43 PM »

I wonder if Scoop Jackson vs. Reagan would just be about domestic policy because they'd agree on foreign policy matters.
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