New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:27:08 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today  (Read 2314 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 23, 2012, 12:35:53 AM »

Preview:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also, a new University of Cincinnati poll for Ohio will be released later today.

UoC is historically the most accurate pollster in Ohio, so better we take a close look at this one.

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/OhioPoll/ViewPressReleases.html
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2012, 02:27:53 AM »

I have a feeling Obama will lead in all three states.
Logged
PittsburghSean
Rookie
**
Posts: 66
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2012, 02:53:52 AM »

I predict Obama will be losing in Ohio and Florida; while Wisconsin is neck and neck.
Logged
philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,105


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2012, 06:00:41 AM »

Here are the results

Florida:

Obama: 49

Romney: 46

Don't Know: 5

Ohio:

Obama: 50

Romney: 44

Don't Know: 4

Wisconsin:

Obama:49

Romney: 47

Don't Know: 3

Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2012, 07:07:24 AM »

Here are the results

Florida:

Obama: 49

Romney: 46

Don't Know: 5

Ohio:

Obama: 50

Romney: 44

Don't Know: 4

Wisconsin:

Obama:49

Romney: 47

Don't Know: 3



Have a link?
Logged
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,376
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2012, 07:44:21 AM »
« Edited: August 23, 2012, 07:50:57 AM by AWallTEP81 »

http://www.abcactionnews.com/dpp/news/political/quinnipiac-university-cbs-news-new-york-times-poll-obama-has-small-lead-in-key-swing-states

So they like Ryan, but not his plan, which makes sense.  What interest would seniors and working class voters have in gutting Medicare?  Obamacare is hardly popular; but that doesn't mean that voters aren't for a working healthcare system, which at the very least Obama and the Democrats are perceived to be working towards.  

Nonetheless, I"m surprised to see Obama up 6 in any poll of Ohio and would like to see some internals.  

NOTE: this is a LIKELY voter survey.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2012, 08:40:13 AM »

Nice.
Logged
Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,166
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2012, 09:18:09 AM »

None of this polls line up with other polls..
Logged
H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,075
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2012, 09:30:48 AM »

None of this polls line up with other polls..

Actually, yes, they do.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2012, 09:58:38 AM »

Obama could actually do better in OH and FL than WI? Finally, this election is producing something interesting...

(Also, I called the results. Tongue )
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2012, 10:28:35 AM »

Loving those Ohio numbers!!!
Logged
MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 779
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2012, 10:38:12 AM »
« Edited: August 23, 2012, 11:06:52 AM by MorningInAmerica »

I'd like to point out that all these results but Ohio represent an IMPROVEMENT for Romney from Quinnipiac's last results. Remember last months Q polls of OH, FL, and WI and how well Obama did in them?

WI LAST MONTH
Obama 51%
Romney 45%
So 49-47% this month represents a fair improvement

FL LAST MONTH
Obama 51%
Romney 45%
So 49-46% this month represents a fair improvement

OH Last Month
Obama - 50%
Romney 44%
So Ohio has seen no change since last month.


Party ID on that Wisconsin Poll is D+4. 2008 exit poll data indicated turnout in WI was D+6 that year. 2012 Recall turnout was R+1. PPP's recent WI poll sample was R+2.

Party ID on that Florida poll is utterly bizarre. It's D+6, which is even more DEM friendly than 2008 turnout (which was D+3).

Party ID on that Ohio poll is D+8. It was D+8 in 2008.


Also, Guardian poll analyzer Harry Enten notes this:
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

At least Yahoo notices the polling improvement for Romney. Here's the headline: Obama holds lead in Ohio, but slips in Florida and Wisconsin, poll shows
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-holds-lead-ohio-slips-florida-wisconsin-poll-104836458.html?_esi=1
Logged
President von Cat
captain copernicus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 619


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2012, 10:57:54 AM »

ROMNING AHEAD TO VICTORY

oh... wait...
Logged
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,376
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2012, 11:47:37 AM »

I'd like to point out that all these results but Ohio represent an IMPROVEMENT for Romney from Quinnipiac's last results. Remember last months Q polls of OH, FL, and WI and how well Obama did in them?

WI LAST MONTH
Obama 51%
Romney 45%
So 49-47% this month represents a fair improvement

FL LAST MONTH
Obama 51%
Romney 45%
So 49-46% this month represents a fair improvement

OH Last Month
Obama - 50%
Romney 44%
So Ohio has seen no change since last month.


Party ID on that Wisconsin Poll is D+4. 2008 exit poll data indicated turnout in WI was D+6 that year. 2012 Recall turnout was R+1. PPP's recent WI poll sample was R+2.

Party ID on that Florida poll is utterly bizarre. It's D+6, which is even more DEM friendly than 2008 turnout (which was D+3).

Party ID on that Ohio poll is D+8. It was D+8 in 2008.


Also, Guardian poll analyzer Harry Enten notes this:
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

At least Yahoo notices the polling improvement for Romney. Here's the headline: Obama holds lead in Ohio, but slips in Florida and Wisconsin, poll shows
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-holds-lead-ohio-slips-florida-wisconsin-poll-104836458.html?_esi=1

I see nothing truly terrible about the internals.  Florida is probably within 1-2 pts, not a 3 pt lead for Obama.  Wisconsin is going thru it's Ryan bounce.  As for identical registration advantage for this poll and 2008 in Ohio... I can buy it in Ohio more so than other states, Romney just does not seem to have traction there. 
Logged
Comrade Funk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,136
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -5.91

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2012, 12:03:46 PM »

So much for Ryanmentum.
Logged
Supersonic
SupersonicVenue
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,162
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: 0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 23, 2012, 12:11:43 PM »

The Party ID's, especially in Florida, are simply bizarre.

In Wisconsin and Florida, Romney improved from Q's last poll despite the very Democratic sample. While he stays the same in Ohio under a D+8 (!) sample.

To be honest, I don't feel that is shabby at all. Under a more realistic D+2/3 sample, Romney/Ryan would probably be leading in Florida, Wisconsin and be very close in Ohio.
Logged
MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 779
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2012, 12:23:39 PM »


You must have missed the part where Obama slipped in two states (Fl and WI), and stayed the same in one (OH).
Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,474
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 23, 2012, 12:43:06 PM »

with samples corrected, Romney ahead in OH, FL and WI
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 23, 2012, 12:54:06 PM »

with samples corrected, Romney ahead in OH, FL and WI

Corrected?  You went to the future and found out with the actual vote Party ID was? Why not just tell us who won?
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2012, 12:59:19 PM »

with samples corrected, Romney ahead in OH, FL and WI

With the samples corrected*, Rocky Anderson leads in all three! Smiley

*Changed to what I want them to be.
Logged
Comrade Funk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,136
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -5.91

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2012, 01:03:13 PM »


You must have missed the part where Obama slipped in two states (Fl and WI), and stayed the same in one (OH).
Considering how Republicans have been whining on how you're suddenly winning some of these states, yes, "Ryanmentum" is BS.
Logged
pepper11
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 767
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 23, 2012, 01:41:13 PM »


You must have missed the part where Obama slipped in two states (Fl and WI), and stayed the same in one (OH).
Considering how Republicans have been whining on how you're suddenly winning some of these states, yes, "Ryanmentum" is BS.

Obama is a slight favorite. Ryan has helped Romney in recent swing state polling. The two are not mutually exclusive.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.047 seconds with 13 queries.