Quinnipac Wisconsin- Thompson leads by 6

[Talleyrand]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-(fl-oh-and-pa)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1789#States

Once again, in line with what we're seeing. A definitive Lean R, maybe close to Likely if Baldwin doesn't improve in the coming weeks.

[User157088589849]

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[Talleyrand]

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Starting to look like 2008. To many fires starting all over the map, to many close races but democrats are behind with no momentum just uphill challenges.

Looking really bleak in Wisconsin, Montana and North Dakota. Can't see how any of them can get to 50% of the vote. They will all do well to break 47%.

It isn't starting to look like 2008 at all yet. As of this point, the only seats I think in which it looks truly bleak for Dems are Nebraska (long-gone) and Wisconsin. Many prognosticators are finally admitting Heitkamp actually has a very good shot at her race now, and Berg has been struggling to pull away. Tester is in a pure Virginia-style tossup in Montana and his personal popularity could help him. While I personally think both of those seats will be lost in the end along with Missouri, we could still win them. Besides the races I mentioned, Dems are favored in the other seats they hold.

Republicans will certainly lose Nebraska, and while Brown is slightly favored, he's in a similar to Tester. The dynamics of the state could turn against him quickly.

And I'd go ahead and bet both Heitkamp and Tester will break 47%. Those races will not be reaching the double digits.

[User157088589849]

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Starting to look like 2008. To many fires starting all over the map, to many close races but democrats are behind with no momentum just uphill challenges.

Looking really bleak in Wisconsin, Montana and North Dakota. Can't see how any of them can get to 50% of the vote. They will all do well to break 47%.

It isn't starting to look like 2008 at all yet. As of this point, the only seats I think in which it looks truly bleak for Dems are Nebraska (long-gone) and Wisconsin. Many prognosticators are finally admitting Heitkamp actually has a very good shot at her race now, and Berg has been struggling to pull away. Tester is in a pure Virginia-style tossup in Montana and his personal popularity could help him. While I personally think both of those seats will be lost in the end along with Missouri, we could still win them. Besides the races I mentioned, Dems are favored in the other seats they hold.

Republicans will certainly lose Nebraska, and while Brown is slightly favored, he's in a similar to Tester. The dynamics of the state could turn against him quickly.

And I'd go ahead and bet both Heitkamp and Tester will break 47%. Those races will not be reaching the double digits.

Nebraska is gone agreed.

Montana and North Dakota are going to have high turnout from the presidential election. Obama was meant to be close in 2008 didnt break 46% of the vote. I think south dakota was closer. Along with a high turnout plus the millions of superpac money pouring in the state, how tester and heitkamp can get the message out. They will be supressed into submission.

Wisconsin is looking difficult. The gop base is motivated with victories, the democrats aren't. Another pickup.

Warren is showing herself to be a weaker candidate than people imagined. Can see Brown hanging on.

Its not impossible either for a write in candidate to start in Missouri or even Akin to still beat mccaskill.

Virginia is a total tossup.

Florida and Ohio are going to be competitive because thats where all the moneys going. North carolina broke late for hagan and obama. It could happen  in florida and ohio where obama campaigns collapses and the republicans clean up.

Nebraska
Montana
North Dakota
Wisconsin
Florida
Ohio
Missouri

Thats R +7. Romney victory, republicans control senate and house. Mission accomplished. Its not impossible.

[User157088589849]

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Starting to look like 2008. To many fires starting all over the map, to many close races but democrats are behind with no momentum just uphill challenges.

Looking really bleak in Wisconsin, Montana and North Dakota. Can't see how any of them can get to 50% of the vote. They will all do well to break 47%.

It isn't starting to look like 2008 at all yet. As of this point, the only seats I think in which it looks truly bleak for Dems are Nebraska (long-gone) and Wisconsin. Many prognosticators are finally admitting Heitkamp actually has a very good shot at her race now, and Berg has been struggling to pull away. Tester is in a pure Virginia-style tossup in Montana and his personal popularity could help him. While I personally think both of those seats will be lost in the end along with Missouri, we could still win them. Besides the races I mentioned, Dems are favored in the other seats they hold.

Republicans will certainly lose Nebraska, and while Brown is slightly favored, he's in a similar to Tester. The dynamics of the state could turn against him quickly.

And I'd go ahead and bet both Heitkamp and Tester will break 47%. Those races will not be reaching the double digits.

Nebraska is gone agreed.

Montana and North Dakota are going to have high turnout from the presidential election. Obama was meant to be close in 2008 didnt break 46% of the vote in ND. I think south dakota was closer. Along with a high turnout plus the millions of superpac money pouring in the state, how can tester and heitkamp can get the message out. They will be supressed into submission. To uphill a climb for me. Tester will need around 225k heitkamp 185k votes to win.

Wisconsin is looking difficult. The gop base is motivated with victories, the democrats aren't. Another pickup.

Warren is showing herself to be a weaker candidate than people imagined. Can see Brown hanging on.

Its not impossible either for a write in candidate to start in Missouri or even Akin to still beat mccaskill.

Virginia is a total tossup.

Florida and Ohio are going to be competitive because thats where all the moneys going. North carolina broke late for hagan and obama. It could happen  in florida and ohio where obama campaigns collapses and the republicans clean up.

Nebraska
Montana
North Dakota
Wisconsin
Florida
Ohio
Missouri

Thats R +7. Romney victory, republicans control senate and house. Mission accomplished. Its not impossible.

[Talleyrand]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Starting to look like 2008. To many fires starting all over the map, to many close races but democrats are behind with no momentum just uphill challenges.

Looking really bleak in Wisconsin, Montana and North Dakota. Can't see how any of them can get to 50% of the vote. They will all do well to break 47%.

It isn't starting to look like 2008 at all yet. As of this point, the only seats I think in which it looks truly bleak for Dems are Nebraska (long-gone) and Wisconsin. Many prognosticators are finally admitting Heitkamp actually has a very good shot at her race now, and Berg has been struggling to pull away. Tester is in a pure Virginia-style tossup in Montana and his personal popularity could help him. While I personally think both of those seats will be lost in the end along with Missouri, we could still win them. Besides the races I mentioned, Dems are favored in the other seats they hold.

Republicans will certainly lose Nebraska, and while Brown is slightly favored, he's in a similar to Tester. The dynamics of the state could turn against him quickly.

And I'd go ahead and bet both Heitkamp and Tester will break 47%. Those races will not be reaching the double digits.

Nebraska is gone agreed.

Montana and North Dakota are going to have high turnout from the presidential election. Obama was meant to be close in 2008 didnt break 46% of the vote. I think south dakota was closer. Along with a high turnout plus the millions of superpac money pouring in the state, how tester and heitkamp can get the message out. They will be supressed into submission.

Wisconsin is looking difficult. The gop base is motivated with victories, the democrats aren't. Another pickup.

Warren is showing herself to be a weaker candidate than people imagined. Can see Brown hanging on.

Its not impossible either for a write in candidate to start in Missouri or even Akin to still beat mccaskill.

Virginia is a total tossup.

Florida and Ohio are going to be competitive because thats where all the moneys going. North carolina broke late for hagan and obama. It could happen  in florida and ohio where obama campaigns collapses and the republicans clean up.

Nebraska
Montana
North Dakota
Wisconsin
Florida
Ohio
Missouri

Thats R +7. Romney victory, republicans control senate and house. Mission accomplished. Its not impossible.

Once again, not impossible, but unlikely.

Mack and Mandel are pretty weak candidates. They're going to need a decent Romney victory to get over the finish line. I think it's probably likelier that Berkeley and Warren win. Brown is a slight favorite, but Romney won't crack 45% in Massachusetts. I don't see why you think Tester and Heitkamp can't overcome similar numbers for Obama in their respective states. In 2008, Baucus overperformed Obama by 26 points. And in 2004, Dorgan overperformed Kerry by over 30 points. Both of them have been getting pounded and outspent by outside money and are still very competitive. Quite doable, although I do think they'll come short in the end.

A write-in candidate has no chance in Missouri. This is not an Alaska, but I do agree Akin has a good chance of winning.

I think this is a realistic GOP Takeover of the Senate-

GOP Gains
Nebraska
Wisconsin
2-4 of Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, and Virginia

GOP Losses
Maine

Here you get 50-52 Republicans, 1 Angus King, and 47-49 Democrats. And Massachusetts, once again, can easily go Dem later in the campaign.

[Eraserhead]

I've kinda given up on this one. Maybe the Dems will have a shot if Obama jumps back into a big lead here or if Thompson sh.its his pants during a debate.

[Miles]

Entered.