MA: Public Policy Polling: Obama still up 16

[Miles]

New Poll: Massachusetts President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-08-19

Summary: D: 55%, R: 39%, I: 0%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[MorningInAmerica]

If Massachusetts were only won by 16 points in November as PPP indicates, that would be the smallest net margin between a Democrat and Republican in the state since 1988.

In 2008, the Democrat won Massachusetts by 26 points.
In 2004, the Democrat won Massachusetts by 25 points.
In 2000, the Democrat won Massachusetts by 27 points.
In 1996, the Democrat won Massachusetts by 34 points.
In 1992, a 3-way race no less, the Democrat won Massachusetts by 19 points.

You'd have to go all the way back to 1988, when MA governor Dukakis carried the state by just 8 points to find a better net margin for a Republican than this poll indicates.

Of course, Romney probably should do better than most Republicans, given that he governed the state. But we're still talking about a REPUBLICAN for national office in Massachusetts here.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

So does Romney win Plymouth and/or Barnstable?

[Eraserhead]

If Massachusetts were only won by 16 points in November as PPP indicates, that would be the smallest net margin between a Democrat and Republican in the state since 1988.

In 2008, the Democrat won Massachusetts by 26 points.
In 2004, the Democrat won Massachusetts by 25 points.
In 2000, the Democrat won Massachusetts by 27 points.
In 1996, the Democrat won Massachusetts by 34 points.
In 1992, a 3-way race no less, the Democrat won Massachusetts by 19 points.

You'd have to go all the way back to 1988, when MA governor Dukakis carried the state by just 8 points to find a better net margin for a Republican than this poll indicates.

Of course, Romney probably should do better than most Republicans, given that he governed the state. But we're still talking about a REPUBLICAN for national office in Massachusetts here.

It's also worth noting that the Democratic candidates in '04 and '88 were from MA, which probably gave them bigger margins of victory than they would have got otherwise.

Clinton's '96 margin is pretty crazy though. Wow.

[pbrower2a]

If Massachusetts were only won by 16 points in November as PPP indicates, that would be the smallest net margin between a Democrat and Republican in the state since 1988.

In 2008, the Democrat won Massachusetts by 26 points.
In 2004, the Democrat won Massachusetts by 25 points.
In 2000, the Democrat won Massachusetts by 27 points.
In 1996, the Democrat won Massachusetts by 34 points.
In 1992, a 3-way race no less, the Democrat won Massachusetts by 19 points.

You'd have to go all the way back to 1988, when MA governor Dukakis carried the state by just 8 points to find a better net margin for a Republican than this poll indicates.

Of course, Romney probably should do better than most Republicans, given that he governed the state. But we're still talking about a REPUBLICAN for national office in Massachusetts here.

One difference is that Mitt Romney was Governor of Massachusetts. There could be a Favorite Son effect in operation. Romney was a moderate Republican when Governor of Massachusetts; he is not one now, but he is remembered as a moderate. The effect of a Favorite Son is about 10% for a Presidential nominee, which shows in year-to-year and state-to-state differences (Dubya won Texas by about 10% more in 2004 than did John McCain in 2008; Carter won Georgia by about 10% in 1980 while losing 44 states; McGovern did 10% better in South Dakota than in similar North Dakota and better than in such states as Iowa and Minnesota. Even where it is slight it is significant; Barack Obama won Illinois by about 7% more than did Kerry -- and Obama campaigned more in Indiana than in Illinois. (Maybe Obama was more the favorite Son of Indiana than of Illinois).   

Massachusetts want a heavy turnout in Massachusetts because the state has a heated Senate race.  A 16% lead by the President in Massachusetts at this stage looks insurmountable.

[MorningInAmerica]

It's also worth noting that the Democratic candidates in '04 and '88 were from MA, which probably gave them bigger margins of victory than they would have got otherwise.

Clinton's '96 margin is pretty crazy though. Wow.

Yeah, the '96 MA result was a bit wild. Dole completely bottomed out there, and didn't even make into the 30s (he got 28% to Clinton's 61.47%). Outside of D.C., it was Dole's worst state, by a pretty large margin. The 2nd worst was New York (Clinton won 59-31%).

Edited to add that practically every politician from Massachusetts goes on to run for President these days, I mean, am I right? Romney, Kerry, Dukakis, T. Kennedy, J. Kennedy... Who am I missing?