Univ. of Cincinnati/Ohio Poll: Obama +3 (LV)

[Likely Voter]

Ohio Poll

Obama: 49
Romney: 46


Methodology:
August 16 and August 21, 2012. 847 likely voters

Details:
http://www.ipr.uc.edu/documents/op082312.pdf

[Eraserhead]

Mitt seems to have a pretty serious Ohio problem. I suppose it's not that surprising, he's not a candidate built to run well there. He's lucky he's made Wisconsin competitive, to somewhat make up for it, although I remain very skeptical of his numbers there holding up until election day.

[MorningInAmerica]

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These still aren't great numbers for Obama. Is Romney behind in Ohio? Sure. But we haven't even entered the official start of the general election season. There's plenty of time for them to make up ground.

[Umengus]

Romney wins I voters by 12 so I guess that the party id is biased... again...

[Tender Branson]

Romney wins I voters by 12 so I guess that the party id is biased... again...

The University of Cincinnati poll is the most accurate in OH though. Maybe Democrats ARE more likely to turn out in OH this year than Republicans. Who knows ?

[MorningInAmerica]

Romney wins I voters by 12 so I guess that the party id is biased... again...

Romney and Ryan are both attracting roughly equal portions of their own party's vote, so if Romney leads by 12 among Indys, you can bet it's a fairly Democratic sample. Again, I really don't see how this is all that bad of a poll for Romney.

The University of Cincinnati poll is the most accurate in OH though. Maybe Democrats ARE more likely to turn out in OH this year than Republicans. Who knows ?

I don't think anyone is denying that Democratic turnout will exceed Republican turnout this year. Its happened in every presidential election (save 2004) for the last 40 years. The question is, will it shatter records again as it did in '08? I think that's unlikely, but I suppose reasonable people can disagree on that...I guess.

[Likely Voter]

The problem is there is no 'right' answer. Turnout nationally could be anything from R+1 to D+10, who knows. I think it will be around D+4 or maybe D+3 but I certainly dont ignore every poll that is more or less than that number.  Just put them all into the mix and see where it averages out

[MorningInAmerica]

The problem is there is no 'right' answer. Turnout nationally could be anything from R+1 to D+10, who knows. I think it will be around D+4 or maybe D+3 but I certainly dont ignore every poll that is more or less than that number.  Just put them all into the mix and see where it averages out

I certainly don't ignore polls due to their party ID either, though I do take it under consideration, along with a host of other things. As you should do with any poll.

[Likely Voter]

I wasn't pointing to you specifically and analyzing polls is all good. I was talking about the knee-jerk reaction of some on both sides to just dismiss polls they dont like, especially those around here who talk about 'fixing' polls or their 'own numbers' as if they have some kind of divine insight into the 'correct' weighting and outcomes.

[MorningInAmerica]

I wasn't pointing to you specifically and analyzing polls is all good. I was talking about the knee-jerk reaction of some on both sides to just dismiss polls they dont like, especially those around here who talk about 'fixing' polls or their 'own numbers' as if they have some kind of divine insight into the 'correct' weighting and outcomes.

Got it. People really digging in the closer election approaches. Partisanship trumps rational thought these days.

[Vosem]

A 3-point Obama lead in Ohio does sound about right.